Check our advice monitor on ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Livestock producers: Extend corn coverage... Corn-for-feed coverage runs out at the end of April. With futures down nearly 20 cents from their recent highs, we advise livestock producers to extend corn coverage by one month in the cash market through May.
Bessent signals no imminent changes to China tariffs... Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that while the U.S. was looking to de-escalate the tariff war with China, no changes were imminent. While he viewed the current tariffs standoff as “unsustainable,” any de-escalation would have to be mutual.
Asked if there was any incoming unilateral offer from President Donald Trump to China on tariffs, Bessent replied, “Not at all.” He added that he would be “surprised” if there was a discussion about tariffs coming down by as much as 50%, as the Wall Street Journal reported.
Trade agreement reality: Trade deals take a long time... Apollo Global Management, Inc. is a leading American asset management firm. Through its chief economist Torsten Slok and published research, Apollo has repeatedly emphasized that trade negotiations are inherently complex and time-consuming. According to Apollo:
- It normally takes the U.S. an average of 18 months to negotiate a trade deal.
- Implementation of a trade agreement typically takes an additional 45 months after the deal is signed.
- Reviewing and negotiating tariffs for each product category individually (e.g., t-shirts, cars, pharmaceuticals).
- Addressing non-tariff barriers, tax differences and rules of origin.
- Discussing intellectual property rights, labor and environmental standards, anti-dumping measures, dispute resolution, digital trade, government procurement and sometimes security considerations.
- Clearer federal program guidelines after confusion with programs like the Emergency Relief Program (ERP) led some producers to return funds.
- Regulatory relief to cut costs and expand market access.
- Support for rural communities amid USDA restructuring and proposed staffing cuts.
Why do trade negotiations take so long? Apollo explains that the lengthy timeline is due to the complexity of the process, which involves:
“The bottom line is that trade negotiations take time because they are complex.”
Apollo warns that, given the current pace and the number of countries involved (up to 90 at once), global trade is experiencing significant delays, leading to supply chain challenges, potential shortages in U.S. stores, higher U.S. inflation and lower tourism to the United States.Apollo also estimates that if current policies do not change, there is a 90% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025, largely due to these trade disruptions.
WTO chief warns Trump tariffs trigger ‘sharp turnaround’ in global trade... World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala issued her harshest critique yet of President Trump’s tariff policies during a closed-door U.S. Chamber of Commerce session, warning of a global trade contraction. Citing WTO forecasts, she said merchandise trade is now expected to shrink 0.2% in 2025 — down sharply from a previous 2.7% growth projection — largely due to Trump’s sweeping 10% tariff on most U.S. trading partners and steep levies on steel, aluminum, and cars.
Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the chilling effect of renewed tariff uncertainty, projecting a 1.5% drop in world trade volumes this year, with reciprocal tariffs and supply chain dislocation deepening the damage. She also raised alarms over U.S./China decoupling, calling the 145% U.S. tariff on Chinese goods a major risk to global integration, especially for developing economies.
While defending WTO’s role, she acknowledged the U.S. has valid concerns about global overreliance on American markets and encouraged diversification. The warnings come amid prolonged WTO dysfunction — exacerbated by Trump’s previous blockade of its Appellate Body and ongoing stalemates over reform.
North Dakota ag leaders press Rollins for certainty, clarity in disaster aid, policy... In a visit to Fargo, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins met with North Dakota leaders, including Gov. Kelly Armstrong and Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), to discuss key challenges facing the state’s agricultural producers. Rollins announced $340.6 million in national disaster assistance, including $5 million for rebuilding rural infrastructure in North Dakota. State officials pressed for:
Rollins also noted that through Sept. 30, imported products containing more than 65% sugar will face additional tariffs on top of duties already applied. She said this action emphasizes USDA’s commitment to President Trump’s America First Trade Policy, to support American grown sugar in the face of rising imports.
Rollins reiterated her commitment to fast, fair aid and emphasized the administration’s rural focus. Local leaders called for transparency, reduced red tape and stable support as producers grapple with financial stress, trade disruptions, and extreme weather.
Brazil soy lobby defends modernization of soy moratorium... A case pending before Brazil’s Supreme Court gives the soy industry a chance to improve the “soy moratorium,” an agreement that banned purchases of soybeans from deforested Amazon areas after a cutoff date in 2008, said Andre Nassar, head of Brazil’s soybean traders lobby Abiove.
Nassar cited a Supreme Court case that will determine if a law passed by Mato Grosso state removing tax incentives for signatories of the soy moratorium is constitutional.
“The solution is not to end the moratorium. Nor to keep it the way it is,” he told legislators and groups representing farmers who want to end the moratorium. “Something different has to be done.”
Soybean planted area in the Amazon biome has grown exponentially to 7.8 million hectares (19.274 million acres) in 2023-24 from 300,000 hectares (741,316 acres) 25 years ago. The expansion, despite soy moratorium rules, has benefited soybean farmers and the industry, Nassar claimed. “The soy moratorium allowed it to happen. It created a market for this soy.”
OPEC+ to consider another accelerated oil output increase for June... Several OPEC+ members will suggest accelerating oil output hikes in June for a second consecutive month, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Oil prices fell to a four-year low earlier this month, weakened by a U.S.-China trade war and the unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day of oil in May. The three sources said some members wanted to increase output by a similar volume to that agreed for May.
Beige Book: Trade uncertainty clouds economic outlook... The Fed’s Beige Book highlighting conditions across the 12 districts noted economic activity was little changed since the last update, but “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across reports.”
Relative to agriculture, the report noted:
Atlanta: Agricultural activity declined slightly. Dairy farmers saw demand soften, partially attributed to decreased exports of cheese to Mexico. Cattle ranchers continued to note strong beef sales and higher prices amid limited supply. Demand for chicken was strong. Egg supplies continued to be limited by cases of Avian Flu. Demand for timber remained low. Contacts reported moderating demand for fruits and vegetables. Cotton, grain, and other row crop growers continued to struggle. Farmers were concerned about increasing costs of fertilizer imports given trade policy changes.
Chicago: Farm income expectations for 2025 were largely unchanged, though there was greater uncertainty due to trade policy announcements. Contacts expressed concerns about potentially losing export markets but also mentioned that greater purchases of agricultural products could be a way for some countries to lower trade deficits with the US. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices decreased. Fieldwork was underway to prepare for planting, though abundant moisture slowed preparations in the eastern part of the District. Contacts expected slightly more corn acres to be planted instead of soybeans given relatively favorable price movements for corn and a perception of greater export exposure for soybeans. While input prices for farmers rose some, vendors had cut financing rates to incentivize sales, in some cases down to 0 percent. Cattle prices increased, while egg, dairy and hog prices decreased. Contacts reported that livestock operations were in better financial shape than crop operations. There were limited sales of new farm machinery.
St. Louis: Agriculture conditions have been unchanged since our previous report. Wet soil conditions combined with significant rainfall has delayed planting, and in some areas, flooding will require replanting of crops. A farmer in Arkansas reported not being able to sleep for three days due to the disruptions caused by the flooding. While operating incomes for row-crop farms are expected to be negative in 2025, government supports are expected to offset losses. The outlook for meat and poultry producers is more favorable due to low feed prices and stable demand, particularly for home consumption. Contacts reported elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and trade policy but have not made any significant changes to their operations.
Minneapolis: Agricultural conditions remained weak heading into planting season. Grain producers continued to struggle due to low commodity prices, while cattle operations were stronger. Industry sources were concerned about widespread drought conditions because, as one contact noted, “liquidity on balance sheets is gone and another bad year would be very difficult to survive for most farmers.” District oil and gas exploration activity was unchanged since the previous report. Operations were idled at two District iron ore mines due to overaccumulation of inventory amid decreased steel demand.
Kansas City: Economic conditions in the Tenth District farm economy weakened early in April. Prices for several key commodities declined alongside increased uncertainty surrounding export prospects. Profit opportunities for crop producers remained limited. In the latest survey of agricultural credit conditions, lenders reported gradual deterioration in farm loan repayment rates and notable increases in carryover debt and loan restructuring compared to a year ago. Credit conditions weakened comparatively more in portions of the District most heavily concentrated in crop production while strong cattle prices supported farm finances in other areas. Production costs, elevated living expenses, and further declines in working capital were cited as key concerns, with some contacts noting that more highly leveraged borrowers were selling longer-term assets to improve liquidity.
Dallas: Drought conditions persisted in parts of the district, though widespread rainfall was received late in the reporting period and provided much-needed moisture. Some extreme weather was seen, from wind and dust storms in the Texas panhandle to flooding along the coast. Grain prices moved down. Cattle and beef prices continued to trend up over most of the reporting period, with beef prices rising to new highs, though cattle prices faltered somewhat in early April. Drought conditions are a hurdle for ranchers looking to expand their herds. Looking ahead, contacts expressed some concern for agricultural exports due to tariff impacts.
San Francisco: Conditions in the agriculture and resource-related sectors remained mostly unchanged. Retail demand for agricultural products was solid overall. Contacts raised concerns that changes in trade policy could reduce demand for agricultural exports, particularly fruits and nuts. Crop yields were solid, and early indications for this growing season were good. Labor availability was largely sufficient to meet demand, though contacts worried about future availability constraints from changes in immigration policy. Production costs remained elevated due to weather-related disruptions and high input costs. At the same time, prices that growers received for many agricultural commodities, such as corn, wheat, and hay, were reportedly low. Contacts held back on planned capital investments, citing high costs and uncertainty about future prices.