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Total beef imports for the first five months of 2026 are up 9.9% year over year – the smallest rise for the period since 2023, writes Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, in OSU’s Monday Cow-Calf Corner newsletter.
May beef imports fell 5% from a year ago, for the first monthly year-over-year decline since November and the largest monthly decline since March 2023, Peel noted. The fall in May imports was led by a 41.5% drop from Brazil, which remains the largest source of foreign beef in the U.S.. though imports from the country are down 6.8% in the year to date through May. Uruguay, the No. 6 source of beef imports, was down 45.7% YOY in May but is up 5.2% for the year to date. Peel noted that beef imports from Argentina (up 113.8% YOY through May) have risen as a result of the Trump administration’s decision to increase the Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) this year.
- “As expected, increased beef imports from Argentina have been significantly offset by decreased imports from other sources – in this case Brazil and Uruguay,” Peel wrote. “Changes in TRQs and tariffs change the mix of beef import sources but have relatively little impact on the total import quantity.”
Peel noted that beef imports continue to increase in 2026, but at a slower rate than the previous two years. Demand for beef imports remains strong as U.S. beef production, particularly nonfed processing beef, continues to decline. “Beef imports are providing an important contribution to total beef supplies and especially supporting ground beef markets while U.S. cattle inventories are reduced,” he said.
Condition update: Crop conditions remain remarkably stable. “Good” to “excellent” ratings for corn, soybeans and wheat all came in above analyst estimates, defying expectations for slight deterioration in soybeans and spring wheat.
- The corn crop was rated 68% “good” or “excellent” as of July 12, up a percentage point from last week and a point above the average estimate. Corn was 74% good-to-excellent at the same time last year. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (on a 0-to-500 scale, 500 equals perfect) offers a single, weighted figure that’s used by analysts to gauge crop potential during the growing season. The corn CCI reading registered the most influential improvement in Ohio, which saw a 0.66 point increase, though multiple other states also saw increases of less than a point to raise the national total 2.01 points to 373.63.
- The data showed 65% of the soybean crop rated good or excellent, up a percentage point from last week and defying analyst expectations for a decline to 63%. Last year, soybeans were rated 70% good or excellent. The Pro Farmer CCI for soybeans rose 0.95 point from last week, with increases generally seen along the Delta and Southern U.S. states while steady to slightly lower ratings occurred in most of the Midwest.
- Spring wheat was rated 58% good or excellent, up a percentage point from a week ago and two percentage points above the average analyst guess. The Pro Farmer CCI for spring wheat rose 0.81 point. Click here for a full rundown of state and national CCI ratings for U.S. crops.
- The data showed 67% of the winter wheat crop had been harvested as of Sunday, up from 59% a week ago but shy of expectations at 69%. Last year at this time harvest was 63% complete.
Europe’s weather woes: Lower temperatures and sporadic rains aren’t bringing much relief to key growing areas in Western Europe, said Andrew Owen, meteorologist at World Weather Inc., on a Monday afternoon note. “Significant moisture shortages persist in France, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and immediate neighboring areas,” he wrote. “Adverse conditions so far this growing season continue to promote uneven or poor development, even in some of the irrigated areas.”
- Owen said much of Western Europe will remain drier than usual this week despite some erratic rainfall in France and Germany. “Resulting rainfall will not be enough to restore soil moisture to optimum levels and crop conditions will remain less than favorable to poor for several locations. Drier-than-usual weather will prevail for southeastern Europe as well, which could impact development conditions in the driest areas.”
USDA on Friday cut its estimate of European Union corn production by 3.7 million metric tons, reflecting damage to the crop from the heat wave.
Graham’s death reverberates: The death over the weekend of Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina removed one of Washington’s most effective advocates of a hardline approach to China, writes the South China Morning Post, and comes as Republicans are debating how aggressively the U.S. should confront Beijing. The report noted that while Graham was best known around the world for his support for Ukraine and Israel, he had repeatedly argued that Beijing posed one of the biggest long-term strategic challenges to the U.S. and called for a more confrontational posture. That included urging Washington to prepare for the possibility of military conflict over Taiwan.
- Separately, Politico’s Morning Ag newsletter noted that Graham’s death complicates an already unclear picture in the Senate when it comes to advancing key legislation, including the Farm Bill, as it further narrows the Republican majority. Republicans must also account for the absence of Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky who remains hospitalized after a fall. The Senate farm bill still awaits an initial edit by the Agriculture Committee, while President Donald Trump has requested more than $11 billion in additional farm assistance as part of a supplemental spending package with military funding.
Senate Ag Chair John Boozman, an Arkansas Republican, told Politico there’s “real momentum to advancing policies to help farmers, and I’m committed to working with my colleagues to make that happen.”
China opens the door wider to Aussie canola: China expanded access to Australian canola by allowing private processors to import the oilseed, Reuters reported, citing sources in the crushing industry, terming it the latest sign of improving agricultural trade between Beijing and Canberra. Beijing has allowed Australian canola imports to enter through seaports in Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hebei, Liaoning and Tianjin, with cargoes required to be processed at approved facilities near the ports, the report said.
- China is the world’s largest canola import market, Reuters noted, following its reopening in mid-2025 with trial purchases by state-run trader COFCO. Australia is the second-largest exporter of canola after Canada.
Don’t miss this week’s Pro Farmer Podcast and a close look at how weather – at home and abroad; war – in the Middle East and Black Sea; and USDA data are providing bulls with some mid-summer ammo.