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It was a dismal day across the agricultural markets on Tuesday, with traders reluctant to press positions ahead of the outcome of the midterm elections. The hope for bulls is that once the results are in, risk appetite will show some improvement. That has tended to be a clear pattern in the stock market, where midterm election years tend to be the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle. The S&P 500, however, has tended to see relief rallies once the results are known regardless of the winner. The notion is that it’s uncertainty that weighs on the broad market and that the clearing of that uncertainty sets the stage for improved animal spirits.
Democrats are seen as likely to flip control of the House, while the fate of the Senate remains too close to call. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the upper chamber. History shows stocks tend to perform better when Congress and the White House are controlled by different parties. Analysts at Morgan Stanley noted that, historically, under a Republican president, the S&P 500 Index has gained about 16% on average in the calendar year following midterms when Democrats control both chambers of Congress and 23% when control of Congress is split between the parties. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And Morgan Stanley analysts note that the S&P 500 has already seen a strong performance, up 10.2% year to date, despite it being a midterm election year.
- And then there’s Iran, which remains the crucial wild card. Oil futures have pulled back as both the U.S. and Iran have signaled a desire to continue talks. But that comes after news reports just last week indicated the Trump administration was leaning toward plans for a renewed escalation in fighting.
“Asset prices will clearly prove far more sensitive to things like the destruction of Iranian oil facilities or the retaliatory attacks against other regional countries by Iran than how many Republicans lose their seat in government,” said Steve Barrow, head of G-10 strategy at Standard Bank in London, in a note.
See: Control of Congress runs through farm country. Here’s what to watch on Election Night.
Market recap: It was a day of nearly across-the-board losses for agricultural futures on Tuesday.
- December corn fell 5 ¾ cents to end at $4.42 ½, hitting another four-month low despite another round of flash sales. Harvest-related commercial hedge pressure continues.
- January soybeans finished 2 ¾ cents lower at $12.14, hitting a 2.5 month low. December soybean meal fell $1.60 to $318, also seeing a 2.5 month low, while December soybean oil rose 20 points to 65.28 cents.
- December soft red winter wheat fell 6 ¾ cents to $5.99 ¾, while December hard red winter wheat ended 9 ¾ cents lower at $6.36 ¼. December spring wheat dropped 6 ¼ cents to $6.19 ½.
- December cotton fell 62 points to 77.04 cents, hitting a four-month low.
- December live cattle fell $1.55 to close at $218.15, notching a six-week low. January feeder cattle lost $4.30 to $328.375.
- December lean hogs were a rare bright spot, rising $0.425 to $58.60, finding support on short covering after hitting the latest in a run of contract lows in early activity.
Brazil needs rain in north… Soybean and first-crop corn planting has advanced at a rapid pace in Brazil, thanks in part to a lack of regular rain in western and northern areas, said Andy Karst of World Weather on Tuesday. Greater rain is needed in those areas to improve soil moisture, while October rain – before the last week of the month – was greater than desired by farmers from southern Paraguay into Parana, Santa Catarina, and northern Rio Grande do Sul, though fieldwork advanced around the precipitation, he said. Frequent rain and sometimes heavy rain is expected into Saturday from Rio Grande do Sul into Parana and wheat harvesting will be stalled in much of the region, Karst said, while corn and soybean planting should resume when rain becomes less frequent Sunday into next week.
- “Rain is needed from central and northern Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso to Goias and into Bahia,” the forecaster said. “Recent rain has likely been adequate in supporting germination and some development, but soil moisture is still marginal to short in much of the region and much more rain is needed to ensure high production is realized.”
ADM sees record profit on crushing ops… Archer-Daniels-Midlands on Tuesday reported third-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations and raised its full-year adjusted profit outlook for a third straight quarter, boosted by strong oilseed processing margins, Reuters reported. The grain merchant and processing giant now sees 2026 adjusted earnings of $5.50 to $5.80 a share, up from its previous outlook of $5.15 to $5.60. ADM said a surge in corn and soybean prices early this fall prompted farmers to accelerate sales of grain stockpiled from last year’s harvest, while higher crude oil prices have driven demand for biofuel feedstocks. ADM’s crushing business reported a record profit of $311 million, up from $13 million a year earlier.
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting under discussion… U.S., Chinese and Russian officials are discussing a possible summit between Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin later this month when the leaders attend the Apec summit in Shenzhen, the Financial Times reported Tuesday. The newspaper said that, according to people familiar with the situation in Washington, Beijing and Moscow said officials had been holding serious talks about arranging the first trilateral meeting between the heads of state in two weeks. A person familiar with Russia’s thinking told the FT that Moscow didn’t expect substantive talks on Ukraine.
U.S. biodiesel capacity falls… U.S. biodiesel capacity fell by 65 million gallons per year (MMgy) in August, Ethanol Producer reported, citing Energy Information Administration data. Ethanol and renewable diesel capacities were unchanged compared to the previous month. Total operable biofuels capacity reached 25.282 billion gallons a year in August, the report said, down 65 MMgy compared to July and down 20 MMgy compared to August 2025. Ethanol capacity was 18.41 billion gallons a year in August, flat compared to the previous month, but up 71 MMgy versus August of last year.