Corn
Price action: July corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.57 1/2, nearer the daily high and for the week up 6 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures trading this week was choppy but the bulls had the better week, supported by rallying wheat prices. The overall near-term technical posture for corn has turned neutral, suggesting more choppy and sideways trading next week. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts a record harvest in Argentina of 61 MMT, up from 57 MMT last year, due to an upward revision in area planted.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain and wet soils in place into Saturday from eastern Kansas to northern Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin will keep fieldwork to a minimum and will cause some local flooding, while precipitation is light enough in most other areas that some planting likely occurs. A drier weather pattern will occur Sunday into May 1 and planting should steadily increase around one round of precipitation in much of the Midwest Thursday into Sat., Apr. 25. The rainfall distribution for Thursday into Apr. 25 will be closely monitored as it will be timely for newly planted crops near and south of the Ohio River, where topsoil moisture is likely to be short by that time. The precipitation will also be important from northeastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota to southwestern Minnesota, where soil moisture is mostly short and rain is needed to ensure favorable soil moisture is in place before the planting season.
90-day outlook: The relatively weak U.S. dollar index has helped U.S. corn exports remain solid while still volatile crude oil prices are a mixed bag for corn. It appears the war in the Middle East may be winding down, which will allow the grain markets to once again be better focused on their own supply and demand fundamentals in the coming weeks and months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $11.83, nearer the daily high and for the week down 8 1/4 cents. July soybean meal fell $0.90 to $327.20, near the session high and for the week down $1.60. July bean oil lost 114 points to 67.91 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 89 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market paused most of the session amid a sharp sell off in bean oil that came due a strong downside move in crude oil prices. A modest late-session rally lifted beans above unchanged. Spreaders were featured selling bean oil and buying meal today. Soybean planting progress will be tracked by USDA in its weekly crop progress report Monday. Planting has been off to a quick start in the southeastern U.S., with warm and dry conditions allowing for plenty of fieldwork.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. will be excellent in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states. However, dryness will be slowing emergence and establishment in many areas. Planting in the Midwest will be slowed due to frequent rain and wet field conditions. Meantime, the scheduled summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in China in mid-May will be a focal point for the soy complex traders.
90-day outlook: Domestic soybean crush offers a firm underpinning for the soy complex futures, with NOPA’s report showing the second highest daily crush use on record for the month of March. However, a likely record-crop from Brazil and uncertainty around the outcome of the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi prevent movement too far to the upside.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 7 1/4 cents to $5.99 1/4, near mid-range and for the week were up 18 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat lost 5 cents to $6.50, nearer the daily high and for the week up 45 cents. July spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.70 1/4, near the daily high and for the week up 43 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures market saw some routine profit-taking pressure heading into the weekend. It was a good week for the bulls, however, which suggests some more price strength next week.
Farmers in Argentina are considering a reduction in wheat plantings due to high urea costs, with some switching to corn or soybeans due to limited profit margins.
Australia’s wheat acreage for the 2026/27 crop is expected to fall to a seven-year low due to weak prices and shortages of fertilizer and fuel, Bloomberg reports. “
World Weather Inc. today said a cold snap this weekend may have some negative impact on hard red winter wheat in the western High Plains region. Rainfall in the next seven days in HRW country will still be limited, with net drying in most areas. The eastern 20% of the region will be involved in a major severe weather outbreak today, which will occur from central Oklahoma into the central and northern Corn Belt. This will provide some rain to southeastern parts of the region and some localized crop damage is possible from large hail. The damaging wind threat is greatest slightly east of the region. There will then be another opportunity for thunderstorms Thursday as another storm system approaches and this could have greater coverage.
30-day outlook: Price action in crude oil saw a less direct impact on HRW futures this week, and such is likely to be the case in the coming week—IF the Middle East war continues to wind down. Weather issues have given the wheat crops a return to trading on their own supply fundamentals. Hard red spring wheat planting in the U.S. is still early and mostly in line with historical progress for mid-April.
90-day outlook: A bright spot for the wheat markets has been the sell off in the U.S. dollar index, which hit a six-week low this week. If the greenback continues to depreciate in the coming weeks and months, such would make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world market and likely provide a boost to U.S. export sales that have been lagging recently.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 169 points to 79.82 cents, near the session high and hit a two-year high. For the week, July cotton was up 449 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls are keeping their pedal to the metal, with technical buying featured amid a strong price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week, as well as a recently weak U.S. dollar index, have also supported buying interest in cotton futures.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to significantly boost soil moisture leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland planting. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Apr. 29 that should bring enough rain to improve soil moisture and conditions for cotton germination, establishment, and development. Fieldwork will be slowed at times, but some planting should advance on the drier days.
90-day outlook: Slightly improving U.S.-China trade relations could be a positive element on the U.S. cotton export demand front in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China in mid-May. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. later this year. Still-elevated crude oil prices have been a bullish driver, pushing cotton back into the spotlight over polyester for spindle share.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a decent corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 73.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 79.00 cents and then at 80.00 cents. First support is seen at 77.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.