Advice Alert: Corn producers: Advance 2025 crop sales... March corn futures have broken below the uptrend dating back to the January low. That indicates a trip to the January 13 low is likely. Yesterday’s bullish surprise in USDA’s supply and demand reports did little to spur strength. When markets can’t rally on bullish news, it is a sign of additional potential weakness. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell 15% of 2025-crop production to get to 40% priced. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $4.27 1/2, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw modest technical selling pressure featured today, as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated in March futures. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a negative outside-market element for corn.
Bulls got no support from USDA today announcing the sale of 230,560 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown destinations in 2025/26.
CONAB will release updated expectations on Brazilian corn production tomorrow, with analysts expecting a 1.3 MMT increase from the January estimate to 140.1 MMT, according to Bloomberg.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 800,000 MT to 1.5 million MT in all marketing years, according to a DowJones Newswires survey.
World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms and increases in soil moisture Thursday through Monday before additional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Sat., Feb. 21 slow drying rates. Fieldwork will be slowed by rain Thursday through Monday with farming activity likely to advance well when rain becomes less frequent Tuesday into Feb. 21 and infrequent Feb. 22-25. Many areas will begin to dry down starting Tuesday and developing crops will need additional rain soon as moisture from rain into Monday is lost to evaporation. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed. The coming rain will be important in bolstering soil moisture for the Safrinha corn crop in advance of the dry season. Meantime, Argentina will see an important period of wetter weather during the next ten days and stress to crops will be eased in southern, central, and eastern areas where soil moisture is mostly short. Rain will not be evenly distributed, however, and the first round of rain that will occur into Friday will favor Santiago del Estero to Corrientes and Entre Rios where notable increases in soil moisture will result. Much of the remainder of the southern half of Argentina will be dry and will see increasing crop stress. There is still some topsoil moisture in key crop areas from southern Cordoba to northwestern Buenos Aires and that should prevent rapid increases in crop stress this week. Rain Saturday into next Wednesday should favor central and northern Argentina where the drier areas will benefit from the moisture while crops in southern Argentina see at least some benefit from rain, but likely too light to do more than temporarily improve crop and soil conditions.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.17 1/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.31 and then at last week’s high of $4.36. First support is seen at $4.24 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 1 1/2 cents to $11.24, nearer the session high and closed at a nine-week high close. March soybean meal gained $2.20 to $303.00, near the session high. March soybean oil fell 22 points to 57.05, near mid-range and hit a contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex today saw a mild rebound late, on technical buying. However, buying interest was limited as revisions to the White House fact sheet detailing the trade deal with India indicated the potential for soyoil imports is less likely than originally expected. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also negative for the soybean complex.
CONAB’s soybean production estimate tomorrow is expected to increase 3.4 MMT from last month to 179.5 MMT, according to a poll of analysts by Bloomberg.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 300,000 MT to 1.1 million MT in all marketing years, according to a DowJones Newswires survey.
World Weather Inc. today said rain expected in southern Brazil and eastern Argentina as well as Uruguay Thursday through the middle part of next week will reduce crop stress and improve yield potentials. Follow up rain will be needed and some is expected. Southeastern Argentina may see a return of drier than usual weather following this period of time.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some more power today, amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.72 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $10.51 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.25 and then at last week’s high of $11.37 3/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.06 and then at $11.00.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $288.30. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $304.50 and then at $306.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $296.70 and then at $292.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 59.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of 52.61 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 57.58 cents and then at 58.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 56.27 cents and then at this week’s low of 55.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 9 cents to $5.37 1/4, near the daily high. March HRW gained 8 cents to $5.38 1/2, near the session high. March spring wheat futures rose 2 cents to $5.70 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting from the speculators. The wheat market bulls brushed off a higher U.S. dollar index today.
Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 250,000 to 500,000 MT in all marketing years, according to a DowJones Newswires survey.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, one storm system is still expected to affect the region in the next seven days and promote rainfall, mostly late Friday through Saturday. This rain will likely be significant in southeastern production areas. Some significant rain may occur in central and southwestern areas too, but the chance is lower in-comparison to areas such as Oklahoma, south-central Kansas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Soil temperatures will warm more, with a potential for some greening in the south. More unusually warm weather will further reduce winter dormancy of the winter wheat crop. The rain could help promote some greening in the south. Warm air in the first half of next week has potential to cause more livestock stress, with a potential for strong winds, too. In the Northern Plains, well-above-average temperatures and little to no snow in the next six days will still lead to a further reduction of snowpack. The remaining snow in the region is mostly limited to Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota. New snow cover will likely be needed before unusually cold air returns in the last ten days of February. Snow is expected before the coldest air arrives. However, a close monitoring of the forecast and distribution of the new snow cover will be warranted.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.22 1/4 and then at $5.10.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at the January high of $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.25 3/4 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 40 points to 61.99 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw more short covering today, as well as some perceived bargain buying from the speculators. Gains in cotton were limited by a higher U.S. dollar index today.
Cotton futures traders are looking ahead to Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report and also the conclusion of the annual National Cotton Council meeting on Thursday, after which time the NCC usually releases its forecast for U.S. cotton acreage.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. southern Plains, dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks and the infrequent precipitation that occurs should not be great enough to prevent net losses of soil moisture during the period with rapid drying through the next week as temperatures will be much warmer than normal most often. Parts of the Coastal Bend will receive up to 0.15” of moisture and locally more today. Much of the region from west Texas into southwestern Oklahoma and the Blacklands will receive 0.20-1.0” of moisture and locally more Friday into Saturday with lighter precipitation in the Panhandle and up to 0.50” and locally more in the Coastal Bend. Out West, the San Joaquin Valley will see additional rain today and a more significant precipitation event Sunday into Thursday of next week that will result in notable increases in soil moisture and possibly some flooding before some additional showers occur Feb. 20-25. Much of the San Joaquin Valley will receive up to 0.50” of moisture and locally more today. Southern Arizona will see occasional rounds of mostly light precipitation that should not be great enough to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 64.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 62.28 cents and then at 63.00 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 60.90 cents and then at 60.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.