Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 6 1/4 cents to $4.75 1/2, near the daily high and hit another four-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical buying featured today as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Strong gains in winter wheat futures markets today also supported buying interest in corn futures.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated U.S. corn planting was 25% complete as of April 26, up 14 percentage points on the week and 6 points ahead of the five-year average. Emergence was estimated at 7%.
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier increased his Argentine corn production estimate by an additional 2 MMT to 62 MMT and holds a neutral to higher bias going forward. He noted the corn crop responded well to improved weather during March and April, especially the late planted corn. Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 134 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said corn planting in the U.S. will slow down in the heart of the Midwest and Delta this week because of rain and cooler temperatures. Drought in the southeastern states will remain, although some rain is expected later in the week to help improve crops. Meantime, southern Safrinha corn areas in Brazil will get some needed rain this week easing dryness for “some” areas. Follow-up rain will be very important. Some drying will continue in southeastern Mato Grosso, Goias and northeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, though these areas have at least some moisture to carry on crop development for a while.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today as prices are trending up. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $4.77 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $11.89 1/4, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal fell $0.40 to $327.40, nearer the daily high. July soybean oil gained 85 points to 72.52 cents, nearer the daily high and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw a mild corrective pullback from Monday’s decent gains. Losses in beans and meal were limited by gains in corn and strong gains in winter wheat futures today.
USDA Monday afternoon estimated 23% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of April 26, up 11 percentage points on the week and 11 points ahead of average. Emergence was estimated at 8%.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine soybean production estimate by 1 MMT to 49 MMT and holds a neutral bias going forward. He left his Brazilian soybean production estimate unchanged at 179 MMT. He noted wet weather in Rio Grande do Sul is slowing the completion of harvest in the state.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of rain will impact the Midwest through the next two weeks, maintaining moist soils in most areas while slowing planting but most of the rain will not be heavy and some fieldwork should advance during the drier days. The west-central and northwestern Corn Belt will be driest and will see fieldwork advance well, while greater rain will be needed in the drier areas where recent rain did not fully restore the soil moisture. Frost and light freezes will occur regularly Thursday into Sunday, with light freezes as far south as northeastern Nebraska to southern Minnesota to Michigan. Also frost will likely occur as far south as much of the remainder of eastern Nebraska to northern Illinois to central and northern Ohio. The few summer crops that have emerged in this region will likely be burned back with temperatures not likely cold enough to cause permanent crop damage.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the April high of $12.01 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.94 1/2 and then at $12.01 1/4. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.76 3/4 and then at $11.68.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical playing advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $315.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $330.30 and then at $335.60. First support is seen at $323.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 74.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 65.35 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 72.64 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 28 cents to $6.57 3/4, near the daily high and hit a 14-month high. July HRW gained 27 cents to $7.02 1/4, near the daily high and hit a two-year high. September spring wheat futures rose 18 cents to $7.29 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw solid follow-through technical buying interest. Good gains in corn today also supported the winter wheat bulls.
The U.S. winter wheat crop rating was unchanged from last week at 30% good to excellent, though the “poor” and “very poor” rating each increased one percentage point, while the portion of the crop rated “fair” decreased two points.
Russian wheat export prices remained steady for two consecutive weeks as cold weather has delayed the start of the sowing season, although the impact of the recent sharp drop in temps on winter crops is not clear, according to analysts.
Weather leans bullish for wheat—especially HRW. World weather today said some relief to drought is expected in southern U.S. hard red winter wheat areas this week. Kansas is unlikely to get much precipitation and will continue to experience a decline in crop conditions. Rain in southern Oklahoma and Texas will be welcome and beneficial.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.65 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at $6.36 and then at today’s low of $6.27.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.40. First resistance is seen at $7.10 and then at $7.20. First support is seen at $6.86 1/2 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 9 points to 79.67 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw mild profit-taking pressure early on but recovered those losses in late trading. Higher crude oil prices were supportive for cotton, but a sell off in the U.S. stock indexes limited gains.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress report showed the planting progress for U.S. cotton at 15% complete, versus 11 percent last week, 14% last year and 13% for the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will benefit from significant rain and increases in soil moisture Thursday into Friday and conditions for planting and germination in dryland areas will improve with some exceptions in the northern Panhandle where rain will be mostly light. Little additional precipitation is expected into May 12 and dryland cotton that is planted and germinates may run out of moisture before the plant becomes well established. Rain during the next two weeks in the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will be greatest Wednesday into Friday when increases in soil moisture result before rain is infrequent and light Saturday into May 12 allowing for fieldwork to advance well while cotton develops with favorable soil moisture. South Texas will miss much of the rain this week and will be left in need of greater rain soon.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the April high of 81.79 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 75.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 80.53 cents and then at 81.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 78.90 cents and then at 78.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.