Corn
Price action: July corn futures fell 1 cent to $4.67 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more follow-through selling pressure today following solid losses on Tuesday and Wednesday. A mild rebound in crude oil prices today did allow corn to move well up from its session lows. Some near-term technical damage has been inflicted in corn this week.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.36 MMT during the week ended April 30, down 15% from the previous week and off 4% from the four-week average. Net sales of 122,800 MT were reported for 2026-27.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork. The wetter Midwest conditions should shift northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late next week and into mid-month.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage. A big and bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for July corn. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.50. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.61 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans lost 2 1/2 cents to $11.92 1/4, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal rose $1.60 to $318.90, near mid-range. July soybean oil lost 87 points to 74.15 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soy complex today saw mild follow-through selling pressure from losses Tuesday and Wednesday. A rebound in crude oil prices today did allow soy complex prices to move up from their daily lows.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 141,900 MT during the week ended April 20, a marketing year low. Net sales were down 45% from the previous week and down 51% from the four-week average. Net sales of 5,500 were also reported for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of rain during the next two weeks will slow planting and maintain favorable soil moisture in much of the Midwest, while breaks in the precipitation should allow fieldwork to advance well overall with northwestern areas seeing the least rain. Soil moisture is marginal to short from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where rain expected during the next two weeks should not be great enough to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. Frost and some light freezes will occur from eastern North Dakota to east-central South Dakota to central and northern Wisconsin through Monday and in portions of southern Minnesota and northern Iowa Friday. The few soybeans fields that have emerged will see burning back of vegetative development while temperatures should not be cold enough to permanently damage most of these crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend still in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bean bulls need to step up and show power yet this week, to keep the uptrend alive. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.26 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $11.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.00 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.82 1/2 and then at $11.70.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $335.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.70. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $323.60 and then at $328.00. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 70.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 76.99 cents and then at 77.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 73.10 cents and then at 72.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW fell 5 cents to $6.12 1/4, near mid-range and hit a two-week low. July HRW lost 19 3/4 cents to $6.67 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a two-week low. July spring wheat futures fell 18 1/4 cents to $6.73 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The HRW wheat futures markets today saw more heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation following recent gains. SRW losses were less severe as crude oil prices pulled up from their weekly lows today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 78,800 MT for the week ended April 30, down 65% from the previous week and down 45% from the four-week average. Net sales of 187,500 were also reported for the 2026-27 marketing year.
World weather today said no serious harm came to U.S. hard red winter wheat areas overnight. Temperatures were not low enough for a long enough period of time in western Kansas to cause a production cut. Colorado was colder, but the wheat crop was not as far advanced and there was some snow on the ground to protect crops from the coldest conditions. Net drying is expected in most of the region in the next seven days except possibly in central Oklahoma, where the greatest rainfall will occur. Temperatures will be generally trending warmer and will become hot in some areas next week, especially in southwestern production areas. Recent precipitation has been beneficial, but much more rain is needed for the most-favorable conditions to support unirrigated winter wheat. Greater rain is expected in the second week of the outlook, but this will likely come with increased severe thunderstorm activity, too. In the Northern Plains, net drying will occur in most areas through the next seven days with variable temperatures. Conditions aren’t expected to be bad for early season crops, but some changes are needed, such as greater rain in western production areas and warmer temperatures. The warmer weather will arrive next week, potentially too warm in some areas, and some increase in rainfall is likely in the second week of the outlook.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.50 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.18 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.05 1/4 and then at $6.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.40. First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at today’s high of $6.91 3/4. First support is seen at $6.60 and then at today’s low of $6.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures fell 105 points to 83.00 cents and near mid-range for the day.
Fundamental analysis: July cotton futures today saw more profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage and there are no early, significant chart clues that a market top is close at hand.
USDA today reported U.S. cotton export sales totaling 123,300 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 24 percent from the previous week and down 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Pakistan (38,800 RB, India (27,200 RB) and Vietnam (18,800 RB). Net sales of 48,400 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Guatemala (35,200 RB) and Indonesia (19,000 RB). Exports of 327,500 RB were down 15 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (135,000 RB), Bangladesh (29,600 RB) and Pakistan (29,100 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern Plains, rain fell on the northern half and some southwestern parts of the Panhandle Wednesday, where the precipitation will briefly moisten the soil before quickly being lost to evaporation as rainfall totals were up to 0.20 inch most often. Other areas were mostly dry. A few light showers will occur into Wednesday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma where warm to hot temperatures will quickly evaporate the resulting moisture, allowing planting to advance well while leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland cotton germination, establishment, and development. A close watch will be made on May 14-21 when isolated to scattered showers occur most days slowing drying rates at a minimum while some areas likely see at least temporary improvements in soil moisture and conditions for cotton. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see showers and thunderstorms into Saturday with additional rain likely in parts of the region most days May 15-21.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 87.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 77.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 84.90 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at 81.79 cents and then at 81.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.