Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $4.48, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market got a slight boost today as USDA this morning cut U.S. corn ending stocks 125 million bu. from last month. It made no changes to supply. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised export demand 125 million bushels to a record 3.2 billion bushels. USDA left its average farm price unchanged at $4.00. The agency pegged global corn carryover at 279.15 MMT for 2025-26, down from 281.34 MMT in November and compares with 293.37 MMT in 2024-25.
Still, corn futures prices remain trapped in a sideways and choppy trading range, suggesting more of the same in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said improving rainfall in center-west and center-south Brazil will bolster soil moisture for better summer crop development in the next couple of weeks. Timely rain is also expected in southern Brazil. Drying in western and southern Rio Grande do Sul will be most significant Dec. 13-19. Soil moisture in Argentina is rated quite favorably, although there is need for more moisture in the northwest and that should evolve in the next 10 days. Rain today and Monday will be greatest in the north leaving southwestern Buenos Aires and La Pampa in a net drying mode through mid-month. Some crop moisture stress may evolve as the ground dries out.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.57. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.41 3/4 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans lost 6 1/2 cents to $10.87 1/4, nearer the session low and hit a five-week low. January soybean meal fell $5.00 to $301.30, near the daily low and hit a five-week low. January soybean oil fell 16 points to 51.02 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets saw more technical selling pressure today, which also pressured the bean oil market. The near-term technical postures for both soybean and meal markets have turned firmly near-term bearish.
USDA today in its monthly supply and demand report kept its soybean ending stocks forecast unchanged, making no changes to the 2025-26 balance sheet. For global carryover, the agency put soybeans at 122.37 MMT for 2025-26, up from 121.99 MMT in November and compares with 123.24 MMT in 2024-25.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, the two-week outlook has not changed much since late last week and frequent rain and continued improvements in soil moisture and conditions for crops will occur through the period across much of northern Brazil. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where little rain is expected. Central Brazil will also see frequent rain and fieldwork will be slowed while southern Brazil and Paraguay see a mix of rain and sunshine allowing fieldwork to advance during the drier periods while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, outside of significant rain today in northeastern regions, rain during the next two weeks will be light most often and fieldwork should advance well around the rain while much of the country dries down overall. Regular rounds of showers through the next two weeks and a lack of significant heat through at least the next week will slow drying rates, buying crops more time to develop with adequate to favorable soil moisture with many areas likely in need of greater rain by late this month.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is playing out on the daily bar chart and prices are also trending down. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the December high of $11.42 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $10.50. First resistance is seen at $11.00 and then at this week’s high of $11.07 1/2. First support is seen at $10.80 and then at $10.70.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $307.20 and then at this week’s high of $308.90. First support is seen at $300.00 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.66 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 51.71 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 1/4 cent to $5.34 1/2, near mid-range. March HRW gained 1/4 cent to $5.27, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rose 5 1/4 cents to $5.76 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat futures markets today saw pauses as selling interest remains limited due to the near-term charts remaining bearish.
USDA today in its supply and demand report made no changes to the U.S. wheat balance sheet. For global carryover wheat was pegged at 274.87 MMT for 2025-26, up from 271.43 MMT in November and compares with 260.03 MMT in 2024-25.
Indian farmers have ramped up planting of winter crops, putting the country on track for record acreage amid abundant soil moisture levels, according to Reuters. The higher planting is expected to help the world’s second largest wheat producer boost output, ease local prices and potentially allow New Delhi to permit limited exports of wheat flour.
Grain trade association Coceral expects soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain to fall in 2026 from a 10-year high in 2025 despite favorable early growth conditions.
World Weather Inc. today said winter wheat crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover will be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought is a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria, although each of these areas will get “some” rain in the coming week to 10 days.
Crop moisture conditions have improved this autumn in portions of the U.S. Plains, Midwest, Europe (including France) and the former Soviet Union. Crops may not be as well established as desired in a few China production areas in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. India, however, is expected to have a well-established small grain crop with good yield potentials. Harvesting in Australia, South Africa and South America has advanced around periods of rain and most crops are suspected of being in good shape with little change likely for a while.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.44 1/2 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this last week’s low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 18 points to 63.86 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a mildly bearish USDA supply and demand report today. USDA today reported U.S. cotton production at 14.268 million bales. The trade expected 14.16 million bales and compares to 14.115 million bales in November and 14.413 million bales in 2024. USDA raised its cotton production estimate 149,000 bales from last month. Analysts expected USDA to boost production by 36,000 bales. The average yield increased 10 lbs. to 929 lbs. per acre, while harvested area was unchanged at 7.368 million acres.
The agency raised yields across all states growing cotton except Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The largest decrease was New Mexico, which saw a 382-pound decrease. Texas and Oklahoma’s reductions were more modest at 40 and 35 pounds, respectively. Notable increases were seen across states along the Mississippi Delta. Arkansas saw yields increase 47 pounds to 1,538. Louisiana and Mississippi followed closely behind with yield increases pushing their average state yields to 1,486 pounds and 1,329 pounds each.
USDA raised U.S. cotton ending stocks 200,000 bales from last month. Total supply increased 150,000 bales amid the bigger crop estimate. USDA lowered domestic use 100,000 bales to 1.6 million bales and increased unaccounted use 50,000 bales to -30,000 bales. USDA lowered its average cash price projection to 60 cents per lb., down two cents.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable late-season harvest weather is likely in California, the southwestern desert region and west Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states has been disrupted by rain and conditions should improve. Some partial relief to drought conditions occurred in Georgia, Alabama and northern Florida over the past week. Meanwhile, cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well after a slow start to the season because of rain. India and Pakistan harvest weather this year was mostly good, although there were a few bouts of rain delay and concern. Southern India cotton continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape. ABARE recently reported a 22% decline in area planted to cotton this year. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season, though progress is being made. Some improved rainfall has occurred recently and more is desired.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.53 cents and then at 64.95 cents. First support is seen at 63.50 cents and then at 63.11 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.