Corn
Price action: July corn fell 8 1/2 cents to $4.51, ending just shy of the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Bear-spreaders were active today as old crop corn futures dove, breaching technical support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, as pressure from the 200-day moving average continued to curb buyer interest. A firmer U.S. dollar also applied general pressure to commodities, negating support from strength in crude oil futures.
USDA reported corn plantings had advanced nine points last week to 87% complete as of May 25, still two points ahead of the five-year average. However, several of the top 18 production states lagged their respective five-year average planting pace. For the week, emergence soared 17 points to 67%, which was seven points ahead of normal for late May. With several states running behind and June quickly approaching, producers may be more seriously contemplating prevent plant or switching to alternative crops.
Today’s downturn was largely a product of Brazil’s upcoming safrinha corn harvest combined with earlier news that India has proposed significant tariff reductions to the U.S. to skirt reciprocal tariffs on July 9, though the country held steadfast in maintaining high tariffs on critical agricultural sectors, according to the Financial Times.
USDA’s weekly export sales data will be delayed until Friday, due to Monday’s federal holiday.
Technical analysis: Corn futures ended the session below support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $4.54 3/4 and $4.53 1/4 as pressure from the 200-day moving average, trading at $4.58 1/4 leaned in bears’ favor. They now have a competitive edge in efforts to breach the May 13 low of $4.36 1/2, though initial support will now serve at $4.49. Meanwhile, bulls will continue to work towards holding a close above the 100-day moving average of $4.78 3/4, though stiff resistance will continue to serve at the 200-day moving average, which is closely backed by the 40-day moving average of $4.67 3/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 14 cents to $10.48 1/2, near the session low. July soybean meal fell $2.60 to $293.70, near the daily low. July soybean oil lost 64 points to 48.93, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today fell victim to technical selling pressure and solid losses in the corn futures market. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a bearish outside-market element for soybeans. There was less risk appetite in the general marketplace today than on Tuesday, which also limited buying interest in soybeans.
USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. soybeans were 76% planted as of Sunday, while emergence stood at 50%. Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish for soybeans. World Weather Inc. today said “concern over too much rain in the Delta may hang over the marketplace today, although the area is small relative to total production for the nation. Needless to say, concern over acreage reductions for corn and concern for soybeans may rise. Other areas in the U.S. are seeing a mostly good mix of weather especially as warming returns this week.” Meantime, in South American soybean regions, World Weather said center-west and southern portions of center-south Brazil production areas are getting significant rain today that will bolster soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the price uptrend alive. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $10.82. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $10.36 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.60 and then at this week’s high of $10.67 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.45 3/4 and then at $10.36 1/2.
Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, there are solid chart support levels just below present prices. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at the April high of $308.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $289.70. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $298.00 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $293.40 and then at $289.70.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of 52.62 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 47.29 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 49.85 cents and then at last week’s high of 50.30 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 48.61 cents and then at 48.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW futures inched 1 3/4 cent higher to $5.30 1/4 and settled near mid-range. July HRW futures rose 3/4 cent to $5.25 1/4. July spring wheat futures rose 7 cents to $6.03 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat struggled to hold onto overnight strength despite declining crop conditions and a lackluster spring wheat crop. Weakness in corn undercut wheat futures today as well, with July corn futures showing leading the way lower. USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent” and 19% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop dropped 5.4 points to 323.0, as all states except Colorado and South Dakota declined. The SRW CCI rating slipped 0.1 point to 374.7. Click here for details. Winter wheat conditions continue to decline despite moderately favorable weather. Harvest has picked up over the past couple of weeks and is working north, which could add some harvest selling pressure. Still, winter wheat futures look to have posted a low.
USDA initially rated the spring wheat crop as 45% “good” to “excellent,” while plantings were estimated to be 87% complete as of May 25. Emergence stood at 60%. Spring wheat conditions were well below expectations and tied for the second lowest initial rating ever, tied with 2021’s historically poor crop. This caught analysts by surprise and is likely not priced into the market, especially since USDA priced in a bumper spring wheat crop in their May WASDE. The northern Plains are expected to see a healthy mix of rain and sunshine over the next couple of weeks, though conditions could become a little wet in the latter half of the outlook, says World Weather Inc.
Technical analysis: July SRW futures struggled to build on overnight strength but did stabilize after Tuesday’s big loss. Bulls failed to overcome resistance at $5.35, the 10-day moving average, which is reinforced by resistance at $5.42. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $5.27 1/2 on a continuation lower, which is tentatively backed by $5.25, then $5.20. July HRW saw action on either side of unchanged today as well. Resistance persists at $5.30 then $5.39 1/2. Bulls are seeking to hold support at the psychological $5.25 mark on a continuation lower, which is reinforced by support at $5.16 1/2.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Be prepared to make additional 2025-crop and initial 2026-crop sales when the rally shows signs of stalling.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 24 points to 65.33 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today dropped to the bottom of its choppy trading range but chart support held and then prices rebounded to finish nearer the daily high. A higher U.S. dollar index today limited the upside but a rally in the crude oil market limited the downside for cotton. Risk appetite in the general marketplace receded a bit at mid-week, which was a negative for the cotton market.
USDA Tuesday afternoon reported some slow planting progress in the southern U.S. Mississippi’s crop was only 43% planted versus 77% planted for the five-year average. Alabama’s crop was 55% planted versus the five-year average of 76% planted. World Weather Inc. today said additional rain fell from the southern into central and eastern Mississippi to much of the remainder of the Southeast Tuesday, while the remainder of the Delta was mostly dry with south-central Georgia and northern Florida left mostly dry as well. ”Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday in the Delta and Friday in the Southeast, keeping planting to a minimum in many areas before a period of drier weather occurs this weekend through June 11, allowing planting to steadily increase and become aggressive,” said World Weather.
Cotton traders continue to monitor U.S. trade negotiations with its counterparts, especially progress on a U.S. trade deal with India.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at 68.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the March low of 63.80 cents. First resistance is seen at 66.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 66.79 cents. First support is seen at the May low of 64.75 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.