Corn
Price action: July corn rose 3 3/4 cents to $4.71 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 9 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, following three sessions in a row of losses. Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons. In other news, Brazilian corn farmers are expected to harvest a crop of 140.5 MMT in the 2025-26 season, down 7% from the previous crop, according to consultancy Agroconsult.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be a highlight of the grain-trading week. Corn traders are expecting the agency to significantly reduce this year’s U.S. corn production level, from that seen last year. Traders are also expecting a slight rise in U.S. and global corn stocks, compared to the April USDA S&D report.
Late next week, the summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China will be very closely watched by grain traders. Grain market bulls are upbeat about a positive outcome from the meeting that could mean China purchasing more U.S. ag products.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said regular rounds of rain in the Midwest during the next two weeks will slow planting and maintain favorable soil moisture in much of the region, while breaks in the precipitation should allow fieldwork to advance well overall with northwestern areas seeing the least rain. Soil moisture is marginal to short from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota, where rain expected during the next two weeks should not be great enough to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. Frost and some light freezes will occur from eastern North Dakota to east-central South Dakota to northern Iowa and Wisconsin through Monday. The few corn fields that have emerged will see burning back of vegetative development while temperatures should not be cold enough to permanently damage most of these crops.
90-day outlook: While corn futures fell victim to sharply lower crude prices this week, U.S. ethanol production continues to remain sluggish as of late. Part of that can be attributed to seasonal maintenance as production remains near year ago levels. A vote on the passage of year-round E15 sales is scheduled for May 13 in the House following removal of the legislation in the recent Farm Bill debate. Don’t be surprised to see some degree of a weather market scare in corn in the coming weeks. More years than not, one occurs. They can develop quickly and then fizzle out just as fast.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 15 3/4 cents to $12.08, nearer the daily high and for the week up 4 3/4 cents. July soybean meal rose $0.80 to $319.70, nearer the daily high and for the week up 40 cents. July bean oil gained 17 points to 74.32 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week down 84 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market saw bulls step in to buy the dip and do some perceived bargain buying today. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Gains in corn and wheat futures today also helped out beans today.
Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be a highlight of the grain-trading week. Bean traders are expecting a modest rise in U.S. soybean production, compared to last year. Traders expect a slight dip in U.S. soybean stocks but a slight rise in global stockpiles, compared to the April USDA S&D report.
Late next week, the summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China will be very closely watched by soybean traders. Bulls are upbeat about a positive outcome from the meeting that could mean China purchasing more U.S. soybeans.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said planting in the United States should advance around periods of rainfall. Drought has recently been eased in the Delta, Tennessee River Basin and southeastern states, though each area needs more moisture to end drought. Wet and cool weather in the lower Midwest in the coming week will slow fieldwork. The wetter Midwest conditions should shift northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest late this month.
90-day outlook: U.S. fuel prices are likely to remain high in the coming months, which should offer support to biofuel inputs. Harvest is well under way in Argentina and is estimated at 18% complete. Yields reported by Argentine farmers last week averaged 55.4 bushels per acre according to Pro Farmer consultant Michael Cordonnier.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat rose 6 3/4 cents to $6.19, nearer the daily high and the week down 18 3/4 cents. July HRW wheat gained 8 1/2 cents to $6.75 3/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 18 3/4 cents. July spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.78 1/2 and for the week were down 25 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw corrective buying and perceived bargain hunting today. Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report will be a highlight of the grain-trading week. Wheat traders are expecting a significant decline in U.S. all wheat production this year compared to last year. Global wheat stocks are seen near unchanged from last year. Traders will be watching results of this week’s annual HRW tour sponsored by the Wheat Quality Council.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country net drying will occur in the next seven days, except in central Oklahoma and possibly south-central Kansas, where rainfall will be greatest. Temperatures will be generally trending warmer and the need for more rain will further rise, though precipitation earlier this week was beneficial. A high-pressure ridge, currently in the western U.S., will likely move farther east later this month. This may eventually get into the southeastern U.S. and, with a trough of low pressure in the west, this could be a set-up for southwesterly flow aloft that would help bring greater rainfall into the region. Confidence in the significance of this rain is low as of right now. In the Northern Plains, net drying will occur in a majority of the region through the next seven days, with generally warmer-trending temperatures. Conditions should be mostly favorable for fieldwork and crop development, but eventually there will be a rising need for rain, especially in western production areas.
90-day outlook: Wheat harvest in the southern Plains is expected to begin sooner than usual due to the quick maturation this spring. Markets will begin receiving information on yield prospects from crop tours in the coming weeks. Current crop condition data points towards yields being well below their year-ago marks. Drier conditions in the northern Plains recently have allowed for planting to proceed, though some areas still experiencing daily low temperatures below freezing have likely slowed farmer activity. Slow planting in the Black Sea region may limit the top end of yields for the area come harvest time.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 173 points to 84.73 cents, near the session high and for the week up 54 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market saw a choppy trading week at higher price levels. There are still no strong, early technical clues to suggest the price uptrend will end any time soon. Risk appetite in the general marketplace has improved recently, which is also a positive for the cotton market.
Tuesday comes the monthly USDA supply and demand report. Analysts expect U.S. cotton production to come in slightly lower than the April USDA estimate.
Late next week, the summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in China will be closely watched by cotton traders. Bulls are upbeat about a positive outcome from the meeting that could mean China purchasing more U.S. cotton.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern U.S. Plains a few light showers will occur into next Friday in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, where warm to hot temperatures will quickly evaporate the resulting moisture, allowing planting to advance well while leaving the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for dryland cotton germination, establishment, and development. After that, a close watch will be made on May 16-20 when isolated to scattered showers occur most days slowing drying rates at a minimum while some areas likely see at least temporary improvements in soil moisture and conditions for cotton. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see showers and thunderstorms into Sunday with additional rain likely in parts of the region most days May 17-20. Much of the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will receive 0.30-1.30” of rain and locally more by Sunday, with some bands of heavier rain and some pockets of lighter rain while South Texas receives up to 0.50” and locally more. Soil moisture in place and rain during the next two weeks should support the needs of most cotton, with a close watch made on South Texas where the soil is likely to be short of moisture in advance of showers beginning May 17.
90-day outlook: Elevated crude oil prices will likely persist in the coming months, which should benefit the cotton market, as oil-based fibers are higher-priced. An improving longer-term technical posture and waning global cotton production are likely to continue to provide support for cotton futures in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.