Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $4.69 3/4, near the daily high and closed at a 10-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more technical buying as the near-term technical posture firmly favors the bulls amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Higher crude oil prices and a lower U.S. dollar index today also prompted buying interest in the grains.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.17 MMT during the week ended March 12, down 22% from the previous week and down 18% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the analysts’ pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.8 MMT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts 2026-27 world corn production at 1.303 billion tons, down from 1.320 billion tons in 2025-26.
World Weather Inc. today said some timely rain fell across interior southern Brazil Tuesday and dissipated Wednesday, offering a short-term bout of relief from recent dry conditions. The region will now be drier biased again for a while. Center- west and center-south crop areas in Brazil are mostly rated well with little change likely. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay will receive some needed rain in the coming week with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance in central Argentina and improve crop and field conditions in the east and into Uruguay.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Prices have also seen a bullish upside breakout from a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart for May futures. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.50. First resistance is seen at $4.72 and then at $4.76. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.63 1/4 and then at $4.60.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 6 3/4 cents to $11.68 1/2, near the daily high. May soybean meal gained $10.80 to $332.50, nearer the daily high and hit a 3.5-month high. May soybean oil fell 12 points to 65.41, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw modest gains due mainly to big gains in meal. Spreaders were featured today unwinding their long bean oil, short meal trades. Technically oriented bulls are worried about a bear flag or pennant pattern forming on the daily chart for May futures. Higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index today were supportive for the soy complex markets.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 298,200 MT during the week ended March 12, down 87% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range of 350,000 to 800,000 MT.
Ukraine could boost rapeseed plantings by a third to 1.5 million hectares if the conflict in Iran drags on, according to its deputy economy minister, as soaring global fuel prices lift demand for biodiesel feedstocks.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks will favor Paraguay and southern, western, and northern Brazil, where the moisture. Central and eastern Parana into central Sao Paulo will be driest and the little rain that does fall there will be important but with the precipitation not likely great enough to do much more than temporarily boost topsoil moisture. In Argentina, rain has been reduced overall since Wednesday’s forecast for the next two weeks, but enough rain is still expected to boost soil moisture in the drier areas and improve conditions for immature crops while temporary interruptions to fieldwork occur in most areas with a few exceptions.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field. A bear flag or pennant pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart for May soybeans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.20. First resistance is seen at $11.75 and then at $11.85. First support is seen at this week’s low of $11.45 1/4 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $338.90 and then at $342.50. First support is seen at $330.00 and then at $325.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.15 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 63.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $6.08, near mid-range. May HRW rose 1 1/4 cents to $6.27 1/4, nearer the daily high. Spring wheat futures rose 6 1/2 cents to $6.43 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw some mild follow-through buying from Wednesday’s solid gains. Higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index today were supportive for winter wheat markets.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 189,900 MT during the week ended March 12, down 58% from the previous week and off 36% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range of 300,000 to 550,000 MT.
The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts world wheat production will fall to 822 MMT in 2026-27, down from 845 MMT in the previous season.
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2026 wheat crop by 1.7 MMT to 87.6 MMT, citing generally favorable weather conditions.
Weather in U.S. winter wheat regions also leans price-friendly. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, “a significant and potentially historic warm-up for this time of year is now in-progress for region and temperatures Friday and Saturday will be extreme by March standards, with record-breaking heat expected. Another bout of extreme March heat is then likely next Wednesday. The unusually strong high-pressure ridge responsible for the heat will also cause a lack of any rain. Topsoil moisture and subsoil moisture are very short in many areas and the early-season heat will notably stress livestock and raise concerns in the conditions of the winter wheat crop.” Cooler weather will arrive Sunday, but it will be brief. Another cold front should arrive late next week after Wednesday. In the Northern Plains, some limited precipitation is expected in the next seven days. The main weather story for the region is the unusual and likely record-breaking warmth. Temperatures will be most anomalously warm today into Saturday. With the unusual heat and limited precipitation, some loss of soil moisture is expected, though, this shouldn’t be a problem as long as greater rainfall evolves in April.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.16 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.38 and then at $6.47 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.17 1/2 and then at $6.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 103 points to 67.67 cents, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation following this week’s gains.
USDA this morning reported U.S. cotton export sales totaling 196,700 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 22 percent from the previous week and down 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (75,700 RB), Turkey (27,800 RB) and India (12,700 RB). Net sales of 122,200 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (48,600 RB), Pakistan (22,000 RB), and Vietnam (20,100 RB). Exports of 273,900 RB were down 26 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (93,700 RB), Pakistan (36,400 RB), Turkey (23,200 RB) and China (18,500 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. A few showers are possible in early April, but a general soaking seems unlikely prior to that time. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur in the first days of April. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain early this week, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 66.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.76 cents and then at this week’s high of 69.22 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.51 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.