Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 8 cents to $4.60 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw technical buying featured as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart.
Traders on Thursday morning get the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil and southern Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks and Safrinha corn planting should advance well, but a significant portion of the crop will be planted after the ideal planting period and some producers may plant a crop other than corn. Some rain is expected, but dry weather will be most common and with marginal to short soil moisture in place in many Safrinha corn areas in the region, conditions for the crop will often be poor. Central and northern Brazil and central and northern Paraguay will see regular rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times while crop development will occur favorably. In Argentina, most areas will be dry into Thursday and fieldwork should advance well with some western areas seeing rain, while stress to crops increases in the drier areas. Some of the drier areas in the south will receive rain Friday into Saturday before rain spreads across the country Sunday into next Wednesday and induces significant improvements and crop and soil conditions likely reversing some of the recent declines in yield potentials.
Technical analysis: Bulls are right back in business with today’s solid gains, amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.45 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.62 and then at $4.64 3/4. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at today’s low of $4.51 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 12 1/4 cents to $12.14, near mid-range and closed at a two-year high close. May soybean meal rose 90 cents to $315.40, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil gained 154 points to 67.16, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures saw solid technical buying interest today, while meal was squelched by spreaders continuing to buy bean oil and sell meal futures. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. A few showers are possible but the precipitation expected will not be very relieving and more moisture will be needed. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay remain drier than usual and in need of rain. Some of that need may be fulfilled by rain next week, though follow up precipitation will still be needed. In the meantime, the heart of Argentina’s coarse grain and oilseed region will remain in good shape with alternating periods of rain and sun dominating the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the slid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today, amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have regained momentum. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $11.77 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.27 3/4 and then at $12.33 3/4. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at today’s low of $11.90.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $318.50 and then at this week’s high of $321.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $311.60 and then at last week’s low of $307.50.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today, amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 64.38 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 68.63 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.62 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $5.94 3/4, near mid-range. May HRW gained 4 3/4 cents to $6.13 1/2, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures rose 3 cents to $6.38.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw some tepid short covering today. Bulls were disappointed that solid gains in corn and soybean futures today did not spill over into better buying interest in winter wheat futures. A higher U.S. dollar index today was a negative for the wheat markets.
For the fourth straight month FranceAgriMer cut its forecast for French wheat exports outside of the European Union in 2025-26, which raised its outlook for ending stocks to a 16-year high.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, precipitation in the next two weeks will still be quite limited, which will maintain concern over dryland crop development potentials. A big but brief surge of unusually cold air Sunday into Monday may burn back some recent wheat development in the south, but no permanent damage is expected. Frost and freezes at this time of year are helpful in keeping wheat development in check until significant rain evolves. A high-pressure ridge in the second week of the outlook will be responsible for more unusual warmth and dryness. In the Northern Plains, occasional snow will occur in the next seven days, which will be good for providing some more needed moisture that will be useful in the upcoming growing season. The snow will also help protect crops from some subzero morning low temperatures in the first half of next week. Strong to extreme wind speeds are likely in the western half of the region Thursday, with some gusts as high as 60 to 75 mph.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.83 3/4 and then at $5.75.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 6.23 1/2 and then at $6.35. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.07 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $5.98 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 13 points to 65.17 cents, near the session low after hitting a two-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw mild corrective selling after gains for three straight sessions. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. Some showers are possible over the next couple of weeks but a general soaking seems unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur late this month. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.78 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 64.60 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.08 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.