Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 cents to $4.36 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw mild follow-through buying strength from Monday’s gains. Bulls this week have shown decent strength following last Friday’s solid losses, to keep a price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart and keep the bulls with the advantage.
USDA today reported 91% of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of Nov. 16, three percentage points behind the five-year average.
South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 140 MMT and maintains a neutral bias going forward. However, with delayed soybeans plantings, Cordonnier estimates as much as 30% of the safrinha crop will be planted after the ideal planting window, with an additional 20% also at risk. He also left his Argentine corn production estimate unchanged at 54 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall should increase, leading to improved topsoil moisture and better crop development potential. A close watch on the distribution of rain is warranted until all areas have received sufficient amounts to support long-term development potential. U.S. late-season fieldwork may be slowed by some rain later this week and into early next week, although this year’s drier than usual autumn was ideal in getting fieldwork completed quickly.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.42 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.38 1/2 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at $4.32 and then at this week’s low of $4.28 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 3 3/4 cents to $11.53 1/2, nearer the session low and hit a 17-month high early on. December soybean meal lost $3.80 to $327.00, near mid-range. December soybean oil gained 103 points to 52.17 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures today saw some modest corrective selling pressure following recent good gains. Spreaders today were featured buying bean oil and selling meal.
USDA today reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 792,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025-26 marketing year. That purchase ended a temporary pause and appears to signal commitment to a trade truce agreed late last month.
USDA today reported the U.S. soybean crop was 95% harvested as of Nov. 16, one percentage point behind the five-year average.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 177 MMT and maintains a neutral bias despite delayed plantings amid irregular rainfall. He also left his Argentine soybean production estimate unchanged at 49.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil’s soybean regions, many areas from central and southern Mato Grosso to central and southern Goias will see little rain through Thursday and aggressive fieldwork in anticipation of greater rain beginning Friday. Meantime, rain increases today into Thursday in much of the remainder of northern Brazil with Bahia wettest. Rain will be frequent across northern Brazil during the remainder of the next two weeks and fieldwork should become sluggish while soybean planting needs to be completed soon to ensure Safrinha corn planting delays are not extended. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Many areas will likely be in need of greater rain by early December. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around one round of organized rain Wednesday night into Friday that will disfavor northeastern, west-central, and southwestern areas with rain infrequent and often light Saturday into Dec. 2. Rain Wednesday night into Friday and soil moisture in place should ensure crops develop favorably most areas while drying occurs Saturday into Dec. 2, with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and rain later this week will either miss the region or be too light to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. Subsoil moisture is still short in most areas from central La Pampa to San Luis to central and northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.69 1/2 and then at $11.75. First support is seen at $11.40 and then at $11.30.
December soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $334.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $331.70 and then at $334.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $324.50 and then at this week’s low of $319.80.
Bean oil bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are now trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 52.48 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.91 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 2 1/4 cents to $5.46 1/2, nearer the daily high and hit a nearly two-week high. December HRW fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.26 1/4, nearer the daily low. December spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $5.82 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw SRW posting mild follow-through buying and HRW pausing, following Monday’s good gains that have put the bulls back in a better near-term technical posture.
USDA today reported that 92% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Nov. 16 and 79% emerged. The “good” to “excellent” rating stood at 45%, while 19% was rated “poor” to “very poor.”
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, a storm system will still impact the region with a needed beneficial rain event Wednesday night into Friday. The rain will be most significant in southeastern production areas. However, some meaningful rainfall is likely in western parts of the region as well. This rain will still be of high importance for promoting better establishment of newly planted winter wheat before dormancy occurs. Confidence remains greatest of the rainfall being significant from central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. Temperatures will also likely still become significantly colder around Nov. 26 – 27 and this cold air should promote a greater transition to dormancy. An early stratospheric warming event could help enhance this cold air too. In the Northern Plains, not much precipitation is expected in the region the next seven days. Completely dry weather is unlikely. However, what precipitation occurs should not be enough to have any notable effect on soil moisture. Some significant snowfall remains likely in the second week of the outlook and this will be important for helping to protect crops from potentially significant cold air.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.30.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.34 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s low of $5.13 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 21 points to 62.57 cents, nearer the daily high, after scoring a contract low early on.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Bulls will remain wary as the near-term technical charts remain fully bearish.
World Weather Inc. today said two rounds of precipitation will impact western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma during the next week, interrupting harvesting and possibly discoloring some cotton. Dry weather during the remainder of the next two weeks will likely be adequate to allow some cotton to be bleached white. A close watch will be made Saturday into next Tuesday, when some heavy rain may cause some stringing out of cotton. The Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will also see two rounds of precipitation that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 61.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 63.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 61.98 cents and then at 61.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.