Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 2 1/4 cents to $4.07 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn market with its recent price strength continues to show signs of putting in a near-term market bottom. Corn bulls got some help from the soybean futures market today, after President Trump called on China to buy more U.S. soybeans. Corn traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report for August.
USDA this morning reported U.S. corn export inspections of 1,491,962 MT for the week ended Aug. 7, up 207,216 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped the pre-report range of expectations, which ranged from 1.0 to 1.4 MMT
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Corn Belt the two-week outlook has not changed since late last week and the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potential.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 72% good to excellent condition as of Sunday. That compares to 73% in the same condition one week ago and 67% one year ago.
Technical analysis: The corn futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests the corn bears are exhausted and that a market bottom may be in place. Prices are still in a 3.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $4.20. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $3.96 3/4. First resistance is seen at $4.11 and then at $4.17. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.03 and then at $4.00.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 23 3/4 cents to $10.11 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week high. September soybean meal rose $4.20 to $280.80, nearer the daily high and hit a four-week high. September soybean oil rose 48 points to 53.19 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex got a presidential boost to start the trading week. In a Truth Social post Sunday, President Trump urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases ahead of the Aug. 12 truce deadline. Short covering and perceived value buying were featured today. Bean traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report for August.
USDA this morning reported U.S. soybean export inspections of 518,066 MT during the week ended Aug. 7, down 110,044 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the U.S. Midwest “the bottom line to the two-week outlook has not changed since late last week and the Midwest will see another two weeks of favorable conditions for crop development and very high production potentials.” Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the middle of next week and areas that have recently dried will see a bolstering of soil moisture with nearly all of the region left with enough subsoil moisture to support crop development through the end of the month. A close watch will be made on rain Tuesday into Wednesday from east-central and southeastern Missouri to western Kentucky where topsoil moisture is short and rain will be needed before crops reach maturity. Warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures will be most common through the next week with widespread, excessive heat not expected through the period.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 68% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 69% in the same condition last week and 68% one year ago.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $10.43 1/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $9.81 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.15 and then at $10.25. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.90.
Soybean meal bulls have recently gained momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $290.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $262.50. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $283.10 and then at $285.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $275.60 and then at $271.50.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 57.64 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.91 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.79 cents and then at last week’s high of 54.94 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 52.41 cents and then at 52.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1/2 cent to $5.35 1/2, nearer the daily low. December HRW wheat gained 1/4 cent to $5.37 1/2, near mid-range. December HRS fell 1 1/2 cent to $5.95 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market bulls did not get much traction today from a solid rally in the soybean market and decent gains in corn futures. Wheat traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA supply and demand report for August. A stronger U.S. dollar index today did somewhat limit buying interest in wheat.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 365,486 MT during the week ended Aug. 7, down 324,244 MT. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 350,000 to 600,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in Saskatchewan and Manitoba wheat regions recently “has come too late for a big improvement in cereal production, although a few crops that were not drought stressed certainly benefited.” Ontario and Quebec production has been good this year and drying conditions under way now are great for maturing the crop and supporting its harvest. U.S. wheat harvest has been favorable in the Midwest and northern Plains. Harvesting in the central Plains is nearly complete. Dryness in the Pacific Northwest hurt dryland production this year while irrigated crops likely performed normally, said the forecaster.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop in 48% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, the same as last week and compares to 72% good to excellent last year at the same time. Spring wheat harvested was at 15% complete Sunday, analysts believe, compared to 5% last week and 18% one year ago. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 92% complete as of Sunday, compared to 86% last week and 93% one year ago.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.43 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at the contract low of $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.60. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.31 and then at the contract low of $5.24.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton rose 16 points to 66.76 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw some tepid short covering today after prices Friday hit a four-month low. Gains in cotton were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar index to start the trading week. Cotton traders are gearing up for Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. A Bloomberg survey of analysts shows an average production estimate of 14.55 million bales, down just slightly from the July USDA report.
World Weather Inc. today said unirrigated southwestern west Texas cotton areas still need rain to support the best dryland production. Hotter temperatures have occurred recently adding to crop stress. Some rain is expected in West Texas this week and temperatures will be seasonable, but there is still much doubt that a good soaking of rain will reach the southwestern dryland areas. Other areas in Texas are seeing highly varying weather and soil conditions. “Timely rain will become increasingly more important as the next two weeks move along to ensure the best crop development and yield potential in the Blacklands and upper coast. South Texas crops are maturing and beginning to be harvested.”
U.S. Delta crops are drying down and timely rain is needed. The southeastern U.S. cotton areas in the nation have received significant rain recently and more will fall to support long term crop development, said the forecaster.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the June high of 69.52 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the June low of 66.27 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.19 cents and then at last week’s high of 67.72 cents. First support is seen at 66.27 cents and then at last week’s low of 65.88 cents.
What to do: Finish 2024-crop sales. Today marks the end of the 2024-25 marketing year for cotton. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell the final 25% of 2024-crop production to get to 100% sold. New-crop sales will wait for an extended rally.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.