Corn
Price action: July corn futures rose 21 1/4 cents to $4.77, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market bulls were right back in business today, after getting taken behind the woodshed late last week. Bulls got a pleasant surprise from the weekend news that provided positive specifics on more China purchases of U.S. ag products. China has committed to purchasing at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural productions in 2026, 2027 and 2028, according to a White House fact sheet released on Sunday.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.379 MMT during the week ended May 14, down 324,990 MT from the previous week but within the expected pre-report range of 1.15 MMT to 1.75 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said the southwestern to the eastern Corn Belt will see an active weather pattern through early next week, while two rounds of rain impact the remainder of the western Corn Belt, leaving much of the region with favorable soil moisture while planting is slowed. Each round of rain will be most important from northeastern Nebraska to north-central Iowa, southwestern and south-central Minnesota, and east-central South Dakota where soil moisture is still marginal to short.
Much of the Midwest will dry down overall May 27-June 1 and the drier areas mentioned above will need rain again soon while the drying allows planting to steadily increase. Another round of frost will occur in the far northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into Wednesday with Wednesday coldest when frost and light freezes occur from the eastern Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska into western and central Minnesota. Most corn and soybeans in the frost and freeze region have not emerged, but those that have emerged will see burning back of vegetative development. More significant damage to crops is possible in a few locations with these instances likely rare due to most summer crops not yet emerged and scattered coverage of freezes.
Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained power today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close July prices above solid chart resistance at the March and April high of $4.87 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.61. First resistance is seen at $4.80 and then at $4.87 1/2. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.65.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans rose 36 cents to $12.13, nearer the daily high. July soybean meal rose $0.20 to $334.50, near the daily low. July soybean oil gained 175 points to 75.63 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw heavy short covering and perceived bargain buying, following the shellacking last Thursday and Friday. The bulls are back in the saddle early this week. China over the weekend said it agreed with the U.S. to lower levies on some products to promote bilateral trade, “underscoring how ties between the world’s two largest economies are further stabilizing after the historic meeting of the leaders,” Bloomberg reported. That includes buying more U.S. soybeans that China had previously committed to buying.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 483,881 MT during the week ended May 14, down 179,520 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 450,000 to 650,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said planting in the U.S. is advancing around periods of rainfall. A favorable mix of weather is expected to prevail through next week, supporting fieldwork of all kinds as well as quick seed germination and emergence. There will continue to be a need for greater rain in southeastern parts of the nation.
Soybean traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained strength today. A price uptrend remains alive on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing July prices above solid resistance at the May high of $12.35. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $11.72 1/4. First resistance is seen at $12.25 and then at $12.35. First support is seen at $12.00 and then at today’s low of $11.91.
Soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in July futures above solid technical resistance at $350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $315.80. First resistance comes in at the November 2025 high of $343.00 and then at $345.00. First support is seen at $334.00 and then at $330.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained footing today. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out, however. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing July prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 76.99 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 76.99 cents and then at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 74.19 cents and then at 73.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW rose 28 3/4 cents to $6.64 1/2, nearer the daily high. July HRW gained 15 3/4 cents to $7.03 3/4, nearer the daily high. July spring wheat futures rose 18 cents to $7.03 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets were pulled higher today by strong rallies in the corn and soybeans markets, following upbeat weekend specifics on future China purchases of U.S. ag products. Both countries stated they want better and more stable trade relations.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 223,972 MT during the week ended May 14, down 287,731 MT from the previous week and short of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
U.S. buyers purchased milling wheat from Poland in past weeks, as high U.S. wheat prices spur demand for cheaper supplies, according to Reuters.
World weather today said some needed, improved rainfall is expected in the next seven days and temperatures will be cooler-biased as well. This will be a more- favorable weather pattern for the region and topsoil moisture improvement will occur. Much more rain will be needed to restore deficits from earlier in the year, but this will at least be a step in the right direction for the region. Rainfall will be greatest in the east. However, meaningful rainfall is expected in the west too. A severe weather outbreak will occur today from central and some of western Oklahoma through central Kansas. Damaging winds, a few strong tornadoes, and locally very large hail will likely be involved with the storms. In the Northern Plains, rain and thunderstorm activity will occur most frequently and significantly in the eastern half of the region in the next 10 days, with net drying in portions of Montana and the western Dakotas. This will leave Montana with a continued need for additional rainfall. However, soil moisture will be mostly favorable in eastern production areas. Widespread frosts and some significant freezes will occur in the first half of this week, temporarily limiting crop development and burning back some new growth. Warming is expected late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
Wheat traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, especially the condition of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.36. First resistance is seen at $6.75 and then at this week’s high of $6.88 1/4. First support is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.36.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.64. First resistance is seen at $7.20 and then at today’s high of $7.32 1/2. First support is seen at $6.90 and then at $6.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton futures rose 309 points to 83.70 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a solid corrective bounce following strong losses posted last Thursday and Friday. Big rallies in the grain futures markets today also supported buying interest in cotton.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be warm to hot and dry most often into Tuesday, allowing for good planting progress before a period of wetter weather Wednesday into the following Wednesday, May 27 slows planting progress while inducing beneficial increases in soil moisture that will improve dryland cotton germination and establishment. Much of the region will receive 0.30-1.0” of rain and locally more Wednesday into Thursday before showers occur in parts of the region daily Friday into Wednesday of next week when much of the region receives another 0.40-1.60” and locally more. May 28-June 1 will be dry most often with a few infrequent showers and planting should quickly increase while much of the region will need timely rain in early June to prevent the soil from quickly drying down again. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see a wetter weather pattern through the next two weeks, with rain in parts of the region most days during the period inducing notable increases in soil moisture that will benefit South Texas most while slowing fieldwork.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but recent price action suggests bulls may be exhausted. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in July futures above technical resistance at the contract high of 88.88 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 79.94 cents. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 84.24 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at today’s low of 81.04 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 90% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 90% sold on 2025-crop. You are 40% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.