Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 3/4 cent to $4.36 3/4, near mid-range and hit a four-week low today.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw some mild technical selling pressure as the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart for March corn has been negated and prices are starting to trend down now. More losses in winter wheat futures markets today also spilled over into selling in corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.632 MMT for the week ended Nov. 20, down 433,430 MT from the previous week but near the upper end of the pre-report range of 1.25 MMT to 1.75 MMT.
Farmers in Brazil’s center-south region had planted 93% of the first corn crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. The consultancy warned of planting delays and a tighter window for Brazil’s second corn crop, amid persisting first crop soybean planting delays.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, rain today will be greatest in the northeastern part before the northern part sees frequent rounds of rain Tuesday through the remainder of the next two weeks, improving conditions for developing crops while slowing fieldwork. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Timely rain Sunday into Wednesday of next week will help ensure soil moisture remains favorable through the first week of December, but many areas should dry down enough, overall, during the next two weeks that greater rain will be needed in the second week of December. In Argentina, the two-week outlook remains favorable for fieldwork as dry weather will be most common with one round of rain occurring Friday into Sunday that will bring timely moisture to much of the country. Rain Friday into Sunday, along with soil moisture in place, should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas during the next two weeks, with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and stress to crops may rise as moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation and temperatures become hot Wednesday into Saturday. Subsoil moisture is still short in most areas from central La Pampa to San Luis to central and northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero. Rain Friday into Sunday and some showers in the days preceding and following that event will induce improvements in crop and soil conditions, but without follow-up rain those improvements will be temporary.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.50. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the October low of $4.25 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.34 1/2 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 1 3/4 cents to $11.23 1/4, near mid-range. March soybean meal fell 60 cents to $324.10, near mid-range. March soybean oil fell 8 points to 51.04 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw selling interest limited today despite lower corn and wheat futures prices. Soy complex bulls were encouraged after President Trump today said on social media that he had “a very good telephone call” with China’s President Xi Jinping. He said soybeans and “other farm products” were discussed. “We have done a good, and very important, deal for our great farmers — and it will only get better. Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” said Trump.
USDA today reported a daily U.S. soybean sale of 123,000 MT to China during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 799,042 MT for the week ended Nov. 20, down 406,045 MT and near the low end of the pre-report range of 675,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2025-26 season had reached 81% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. Planting advanced 10 percentage points on the week but trails the year-ago pace of 86% for the same period a year-ago. The consultancy noted the main concerns remain in Mato Grosso and Goiás due to irregular rainfall.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall should increase, leading to improved topsoil moisture and better long-term crop development potential. Some dryness may return in late December and/or January.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded a bit. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.31 and then at $11.42 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.13 1/4 and then at $11.00.
March soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but just barely. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at $328.00 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $321.80 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 49.24 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 52.52 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.34 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 5 cents to $5.34 3/4, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. March HRW fell 3 3/4 cents to $5.22 1/2, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.78, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw more technical selling pressure today as near-term price downtrends have developed on the daily charts. Weekend reports that progress was made on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal were bearish for wheat futures today, as any peace deal would likely mean more wheat being shipped out of the Black Sea region.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 474,530 MT for the week ended Nov. 20, up 227,997 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) said earlier today it has purchased 300,000 MT of wheat in a tender. The purchase involved hard wheat with 12.5% protein content for arrival in April 2026.
World Weather Inc. today said rain Thursday and that which lingers today and occurs again Sunday into Tuesday in the U.S. Plains, Midwest and mid-South regions will prove beneficial for future root and tiller development and some late season emergence. Cooling in December will slow growth and encourage dormancy. Snow cover in Canada’s Prairies will return over the next week to ten days and the same will be true for the northern and some central U.S. Plains late next week and early in December. The snow will be needed to protect winter crops from colder temperatures. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s southern Region and western Kazakhstan has been sufficient enough this autumn for a relatively good start to growth in the spring as long as normal weather prevails. Greater moisture would still be welcome in Russia’s southern region, although there is no crisis in the region and crops will soon be dormant or semi-dormant.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are now trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.41 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.30 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 15 points to 64.00 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw tepid short covering. Gains were limited by the selling pressure in most of the grain futures markets. Friday’s and today’s price action in March cotton begin to suggest the bears are exhausted and that a near-term price bottom is in place. Good price gains this week would better suggest such.
World Weather Inc. today said rain fell on much of western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma during the weekend, interrupting harvesting and likely discoloring some cotton, with southwestern parts of west Texas mostly dry while rain also fell on large parts of the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas, where beneficial increases in soil moisture resulted. Western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see a drier weather pattern through the next two weeks and harvesting should increase. Some cotton should be bleached white around a few infrequent showers. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see regular rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks and improvements in soil moisture are likely. Most of the daily precipitation should not be heavy but precipitation should fall often enough to counter evaporation and raise soil moisture.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.