Advice Alert: Cotton producers: Advance old-crop sales…May cotton futures’ push to a near one-year high this week is an opportunity to advance sales over 71 cents. We advise cotton producers to sell 15% of old-crop production to advance 2025-26 sales to 75%. We do not advise new-crop sales at this time but will continue to closely assess those opportunities for 2026-27 crop.
Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 1 3/4 cents to $4.47 1/4, nearer the daily high and hit a five-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more technical selling pressure today and was also pushed down by strong losses in the crude oil market. Much better trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace at midweek failed to provide a spark for the corn bulls on this day. However, the high-range daily close in corn does encourage the bulls.
The Energy Information Administration reported weekly U.S. ethanol production rose 41,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.12 million bpd during the week ended April 3. Ethanol stocks rose 62,000 barrels from the previous week to 26.05 million barrels.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 900,000 to 1.6 million bushels for all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.
Grain traders also await Thursday’s monthly USDA supply and demand (WASDE) report. The agency is expected to show only small changes in U.S. corn stockpiles from the March report. However, U.S. corn stocks in March are expected to be significantly higher than in March of 2025. Traders also expect USDA to estimate Brazil and Argentina corn production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain has saturated the topsoil in northern and central parts of the Midwest, preventing early-season fieldwork from occurring for a while. Cool temperatures early this week will keep fields wet until the next wave of precipitation begins late this week through early to mid-week next week. That is likely to translate into delayed planting, but improved weather should come along later in the month to induce some welcome drying. The immediate Ohio River Valley did not get much precipitation recently and this week’s moisture should be restricted as well and that should translate into an opportunity for some planting.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.48 1/4 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.42 1/4 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $11.62, near the daily high after hitting a six-week low early on. May soybean meal rose $2.30 to $314.10, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil fell 230 points to 67.42 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures markets today saw modest buying interest but gains were limited by a spike lower in crude oil prices that strongly pressured soybean oil. Much-improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace this week encouraged buying interest in soybeans and meal. Spreaders were also featured unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 200,000 to 600,000 bushels for all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.
World Weather Inc. today said planting potential in the U.S. is looking favorable for the lower-most Midwest, Delta and southeastern states, despite a few bouts of rain. Crops in the remainder of the Midwest will be a little too wet and cool at times, limiting fieldwork and raising the potential for more extended planting delays.
Soy complex traders await Thursday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. The agency is expected to show only small changes in U.S. soybean stocks from the March report. Meantime, traders expect the agency to estimate Brazil and Argentina soybean production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at today’s low of $11.40 1/2.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a fledgling downtrend line in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $317.40 and then at this week’s high of $319.10. First support is seen at $310.00 and then at $307.60.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls now appear tired. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 70.49 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 68.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.22 cents and then at 65.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 17 3/4 cents to $5.80 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. May HRW fell 12 1/4 cents to $5.95 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. May spring wheat futures fell 17 cents to $6.24, at the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more technical selling pressure today and also saw selling interest due to strong losses in the crude oil market.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 600,000 bushels for all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.
Wheat traders await Thursday’s monthly USDA supply and demand (WASDE) report. The agency is expected to show only small changes in U.S. wheat stockpiles from the March report. U.S. wheat stocks are seen modestly above levels seen at the same time last year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country enough rain is expected in the next seven days for improvement of topsoil moisture. However, caution is advised with this, especially in west-central and northwestern production areas where rainfall will be most limited. The greatest rainfall will occur in southeastern production areas where there has already been some improvement in the last ten days. A close monitoring of the rain distribution will be warranted as the more-active weather pattern evolves. In the Northern Plains, occasional rain and snow shower activity in the next seven days and the melting of this past week’s significant snow will still keep much of the region favorably moist for the upcoming growing season. The greatest precipitation is expected Sunday through Monday.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $6.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.89 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.70 and then at $5.63 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.02 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $6.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.86 3/4 and then at $5.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 36 points to 71.67 cents, nearer the session high and closed at an 11-month high close today.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls showed their resilience today by posting gains despite sharply lower crude oil prices and a sell off in most of the grain markets. Much-improved risk appetite in the general marketplace at midweek, as well as a drop in the U.S. dollar index, worked in favor of the cotton market bulls today.
Cotton traders await Thursday’s weekly USDA exports sales report and the monthly USDA supply and demand (WASDE) report. The agency is expected to show U.S. cotton production, ending stocks and export numbers all to be very little changed from its March report.
World Weather Inc. today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Plains over the coming week will be greatest during the weekend and resulting rainfall may be sufficient to offer some relief to dryness in west Texas, south Texas and the Texas Coastal Bend while maintaining good soil moisture in the Blacklands. Most of the rain will be light, leaving need for more moisture in many areas.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 73.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 72.15 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 70.30 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 75% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 75% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.