Corn
Price action: May corn fell 2 cents to $4.52 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week was down 9 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw mild follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s losses to produce a technically bearish weekly low close on this holiday-shortened week. A firmer U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today also limited buying interest in corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.15 MMT for the week ended March 26, down 8% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Planting of the Brazilian safrinha crop is now 99% complete, according to AgRural, and is wrapping up slightly later compared to last year after early-season dryness delayed initial soybean planting.
30-day outlook: Weekly USDA crop progress reports will begin in April. In the coming weeks corn traders will continue to monitor growing conditions for South American crops, as well as conditions in the U.S. World Weather Inc. today said dryness in some interior southern Brazil Safrinha corn production areas is expected to be eased late this weekend into next week. That should offer some improvement production potentials, although follow up rain will be needed. Brazil’s center west and northern center south crop areas will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine favoring all Safrinha crops and some other late season crops as well. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the south and additional wet weather into next week will delay crop maturation and harvesting while raising a level of concern over sunseed quality.
90-day outlook: Corn futures shook off a bearish U.S. corn acreage intentions report this week, while seeing a supportive quarterly grain stocks figure. The grain stocks report indicates demand for the largest U.S. corn crop on record continues strong. Oil prices presently above $100 a barrel will continue to support ethanol demand, with countries around the world contemplating increased ethanol blends in gasoline to ease supply shocks.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 5 cents to $11.63 1/2, near the daily low and for the week up 4 1/4 cents. May soybean meal fell $3.00 to $315.20, nearer the session low and for the week down 10 cents. May bean oil rallied 183 points to 68.94 cents, near the daily high and for the week up 153 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw modest technical selling pressure amid a higher U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace. Losses in beans were limited by strong gains in crude oil prices today. Spreaders were again today featured buying soybean oil and selling meal futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales of 353,300 MT during the week ended March 26, down 49% from the previous week and 18% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
India’s palm oil imports fell nearly 19% in March to a three-month low as a rally in tropical oil prices, in tandem with oil markets, prompted refiners to curb purchases and wait for a correction, according to Reuters.
30-day outlook: Weekly crop progress reports will start up in April. Soybean traders are still watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions, but focus this month will turn more toward U.S. soybean-planting weather.. World Weather Inc. today said most of the significant rain expected through this weekend will occur in northern Brazil where the moisture will help to maintain favorable crop condition. A timely round of rain will occur in southern Brazil and Paraguay next week inducing notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while rain extends into much of the remainder of Brazil. A drier weather pattern will return to far southern Brazil and southern Paraguay Apr. 11-16. In Argentina, favorable soil moisture in place in much of the country today along with rain through next Tuesday will ensure favorable conditions for developing crops continue through the next two weeks. Northern Argentina will miss much of the rain through Friday and will see fieldwork advance well. A much drier weather pattern will occur Wednesday through Apr. 16.
90-day outlook: Early week losses in beans moderated as the soy complex saw gains from the mildly bullish acreage report from USDA, although price action in beans remains choppy. U.S. soybean exports remain sluggish, with China slow to make additional commitments, likely influenced by the sizable difference in price between U.S. and Brazilian beans. The scheduled summit meeting between President’s Trump and Xi Jinping in China in mid-may will be a focal point for the soy complex traders.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 3/4 cent to $5.98 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 6 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat gained 2 cents to $6.15 3/4, near mid-range and the week down 17 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 4 3/4 cents to $6.46 3/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 1 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw modest corrective rebounds today. Gains were limited by a firmer U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 23,500 MT, a marketing-year low, were down 51% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. Net sales were well below the expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
Ukraine’s grain deliveries by rail to Black Sea ports for export rose 9% in March compared to February, amid favorable weather conditions, according to state railway Ukrzaliznytsia.
30-day outlook: Weekly USDA crop progress reports resume in April. World Weather Inc. today said Nebraska received some beneficial moisture Wednesday and overnight, though more is needed. Other U.S. hard red winter wheat areas in the western high Plains region will not get much precipitation for a while leaving crops stressed in dryness. Southeastern parts of U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and most of the production in the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin will benefit from anticipated rain. Canada’s Southwestern Prairies are still too dry and need significant spring moisture, although a part of that region will get rain today. Meantime, snow-free conditions are present in Ukraine and Russia’s southern region, where warming this month should set the stage for some early season fieldwork and winter crop development. Other areas to the north from the middle Volga Basin to the Ural Mountains are still buried in snow and will see a steady rate of melting into the weekend inducing some significant runoff and local flooding. This month should trend wetter in the western CIS and will be closely monitored for signs of excess moisture and flooding. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are mostly good and the same is suspected in the Middle East.
90-day outlook: Potentially lower yields from harsh weather in U.S. wheat country are working in tandem with historically low U.S. acreage to offer support to futures prices. Kansas, long known for its wheat production, now has more acres planted to corn, a symbolic marker of the decline in profitability of the crop in the U.S. over recent years. Hard red spring wheat acres are expected to decline, helping lift the contract to an eight-month high close on Tuesday. Currently 21% of spring wheat acres are in drought, much lower than the 57% of winter wheat.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 16 points to 70.92 cents, nearer the session high and closed at an eight-month high close. For the week, May cotton was up 146 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market paused today after seeing some mild profit taking early on. However, the bulls had another good week, including a technically bullish weekly high close today. Some keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today, as well as a rally in the U.S. dollar index, limited buying interest in cotton. However, strong gains in crude oil prices today also limited the downside in cotton. Cotton traders next week will continue to monitor the daily price movements in crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar index.
This morning’s weekly USDA export sales report showed U.S. cotton sales of 371,500 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (170,500 RB), Turkey (59,400 RB) and China (55,000 RB). Net sales of 117,300 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Turkey (39,600 RB), Mexico (37,000 RB) and Japan. Exports of 356,700 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (104,100 RB), Pakistan (38,600 RB), Bangladesh (36,100 RB), Turkey (32,000 RB), and India (28,600 RB).
30-day outlook: Weekly USDA crop progress reports begin in April. World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting and establishment. Rain potential will improve next week, though more will be needed. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell earlier this month. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture, but not much is expected for a while. West Texas precipitation frequency and intensity may improve later this month and in May, but it will be slow to evolve. Timely rain occurred earlier this year in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states. However, soil moisture is still low and expected to decline additionally from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama to North Carolina for a little while longer. Some timely rain will be needed soon to ensure the best environment for planting, emergence and establishment and early indications suggest the Delta will be first to get some moisture in the next few days. Meantime, not much rain will fall in eastern Australia for a while. The environment will be very good for early maturing crops and their harvest. Soil moisture is still limited in some unirrigated fields leaving a little stress for late season crops to deal with. Argentina crop conditions are rated favorably; although, net drying is expected for the next week while temperatures are frequently warm resulting in declining soil moisture. Cotton in Brazil should be benefitting from a pattern of periodic showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of sunshine over the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: Better U.S.-China trade relations could be a positive element on the U.S. cotton export demand front in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China in mid-May. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. later this year. This week’s upbeat export sales report showed China bought 55,000 running bales.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.