Corn
Price action: July corn fell 2 1/4cents to $4.83 1/4, nearer the session high after carving a two-and-a-half week low in early trade.
Fundamental analysis: Corn futures touched a two-and-a-half week low in early trade, in a test of support at the 20- and 100-day moving averages, as plunging wheat futures provided some spillover pressure. Mostly favorable weather across the U.S. pressured the grain complex to begin the week, with World Weather Inc. reported over the next ten days, there will be greater rain in drier areas and less rain in wetter areas.
As the session progressed, corn futures were able to recover earlier losses, turning well off the session lows to hold above the aforementioned technical support levels. At midmorning, USDA released its weekly Export Inspections Report, which showed net inspections totaled 1.65 MMT (65.1 million bu.) during the week ended April 24, down 71,731 MT from the previous week but within the upper range of pre-report expectations.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration stepped in today and issued an emergency waiver to allow the sale of higher-ethanol gasoline blend to be sold across the nation this summer. This comes as the EPA has been under pressure to issue a nationwide emergency waiver allowing E15 fuel sales during the 2025 summer driving season. Earlier this year, the agency advanced waivers for eight Midwest states, with South Dakota and Ohio granted a one-year delay.
This afternoon, USDA will update its planting progress estimates as of Sunday in its weekly Crop Progress Report. Analysts are expecting corn to be 25% planted, which would be a 13-point weekly advance, if realized.
Technical analysis: July corn scored a high-range close to end the session, as the 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $4.80 1/2 to $4.74 1/4 served up solid support. Bulls continue to grasp the near-term advantage but need to edge above the April high of $4.97 1/2 to regain momentum. This may be a tall order considering it’s closely backed by the psychological $5.00 level. Conversely, bears look to hold a close below support at $4.60, with first support at the 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybean futures climbed 3 1/4 cents to $10.62 1/2 and closed near session highs. July meal futures slid $2.60 to $295.90 and closed nearer session lows. July bean oil surged 65 points to 50.46 cents, near session highs.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean futures traded solidly lower overnight before rebounding today, clawing back losses most of today’s session and closing near unchanged. Bull spreaders were active in soybean futures today as beneficial planting conditions have traders thinking that the risk of any prevent plant acres have been put on the backburner. A poll of analysts done by Bloomberg shows expectations that the soybean crop is 16% planted, up from 8% a week ago and well above the 10-year average of 7%. The 10-year average increase for this time of year is 5%. The quickened planting pace along with solid export inspections enticed bull spreading across the marketplace today.
Interruptions to fieldwork were common in eastern portions of the Midwest today as persistent rains kept soil saturated, while western parts of the Soy Belt were dry and allowed planting to advance at a rapid clip, says World Weather Inc. An active weather pattern is expected over the coming weeks, slowing planting at times, but there will be breaks in the rain to allow fieldwork to advance, the forecaster notes.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 439,341 MT (16.1 million bu.) for the week ended April 24, down 136,314 MT from the previous week but within the expected pre-report range.
Technical analysis: July soybeans continue to consolidate near $10.62, the scene of the crime that triggered the breakdown in mid-February. Bulls continue to maintain an uptrend on the daily bar chart and are looking to overcome Friday’s for-the-move high of $10.67 1/2 before tackling the psychological $10.75 mark. Support comes in at $10.53 then the 10-day moving average at $10.43 1/2 on a reversal lower.
July meal futures continue to grind lower on the daily bar chart as bears maintain the near-term technical edge. The 10-day moving average at $299.00 capped Friday’s rally and will remain key resistance. Strength above that mark targets the 40-day moving average at $303.0. Support comes in at $295.00 then Friday’s low of $294.30 on continued selling pressure.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 55% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 55% sold on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat fell 14 cents to $5.31, near the session low and hit a contract low. July HRW wheat sunk 11 1/4 cents to $5.39 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a contract low. July spring wheat futures slid 9 1/2 cents to $5.96 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The wheat futures markets were under solid selling pressure today as beneficial moisture has been occurring in U.S. winter wheat country recently. World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, net drying is expected in northwestern production areas, “while a little too much rain falls in southeastern areas. After this past weekend’s rain, the northwestern part of the region has the poorest topsoil moisture and will be most in-need of greater rainfall after this week.” Rain in central Oklahoma has been significant in the past ten days and it will become more significant late today into Wednesday, “resulting in greater flooding concerns and more fieldwork delays.” Northwestern crop areas should receive some needed rain in the second week of the outlook. However, there may not be enough to fully satisfy long-term crop needs, said the forecaster.
A general risk-off tone in the general marketplace today, evidenced by a selloff in the U.S. stock market, was also bearish for wheat futures to start the trading week. A weaker U.S. dollar index today provided little help to the wheat market bulls and was offset by lower crude oil prices.
USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export inspections of 646,564 MT, up 136,314 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of expectations.
This afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports are expected to show the U.S. winter wheat crop in 47% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, which compares to 45% at the same time last week and 49% in the same condition one year ago at this time. U.S. spring wheat planted is seen at 31% complete as of Sunday, versus 17% at the same time last week and 34% at the same time last year.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $5.71. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.44 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.27 1/4 and then at $5.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $5.75. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.25. First resistance is seen at $5.50 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $5.34 1/2 and then at $5.25.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 85% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 85% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton fell 125 points to 67.55 cents, closing near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures faced pressure to begin the trading week, though support at the 10-day moving average, combined with a weaker U.S. dollar, limited a heftier downside move. Meanwhile, U.S./China trade relations continue to be somewhat strained, though China has quietly begun de-escalating its trade conflict. A Chinese official said over the weekend that the U.S. should revoke all unilateral tariffs on China if it wants to sort the trade issues between the two nations. Moreover, shipments from China to the U.S. have plummeted 60% since the U.S. raised tariffs to 145% in April, according to broker SP Angel. This comes as President Trump has said new tariffs on China could come in the next two to three weeks.
World Weather Inc. notes West Texas planting prospects are improving greatly. Periodic rainfall over the coming two weeks will see to it that planting moisture is present. South Texas and the Coastal Bend will receive rain after May 4, while areas of the Delta continue to face excessive soil moisture, which is expected to prevail, limiting field progress.
USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress Report following the close. Last week, 11% of the U.S. cotton crop was estimated to be planted, in-line with the five-year average.
Technical analysis: July cotton continued to face technical headwinds at the 100-day moving average, currently trading at $68.85, though sellers were limited by the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, trading at 67.35 cents and 67.21 cents. Bulls will continue to look towards breaching resistance at 70.00 cents, while bears look to breach the April 4 low of 62.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales and hedges.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.