Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $4.25 3/4, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some technical selling pressure today as the price uptrend on the daily bar chart for March futures has been negated. Extreme daily price volatility in the gold and silver markets the past two trading sessions still has the grain futures bulls a bit squeamish. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today, along with sharp losses in crude oil prices, were bearish outside-market elements for the corn market.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn inspections for export totaled 1.14 MMT for the week ended Jan. 29, down 410,712 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the expected pre-report range of 900,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
Safrinha corn plantings in Brazil were 13% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, ahead of the 9% pace last year during the same period. Meanwhile, harvest of the first corn crop was estimated to be 10% complete, four percentage points behind year ago.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and nearby Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain, favorable conditions for crop development, and regular interruptions to fieldwork through the next two weeks, with continued improvements in crop and soil conditions from Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo as well as western into central Bahia. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 11-16 in southern Brazil and Paraguay where enough rain should fall to ease stress to crops and induce increases in soil moisture. In Argentina, much of the country will see little rain into Tuesday and stress to crops will increase in the drier central and southern parts of the country while warm to hot temperatures rapidly evaporate soil moisture. Topsoil moisture is short in much of Argentina while subsoil moisture is marginal to short in much of the southern half of the country where stress to crops will steadily increase until rain returns. Buenos Aires and La Pampa into San Luis and the southern half of Cordoba will benefit from rain Tuesday night into Thursday while little rain falls elsewhere where stress to crops will increase in the drier areas. Enough rain should fall Sunday into Feb. 15 to maintain or improve conditions for crops in much of the country while stress to crops likely increases in a large part of Buenos Aires Sunday into Thursday of next week outside of some northwestern locations.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.34. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.28 1/44 and then at $4.32. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.24 and then at $4.21.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 4 cents to $10.60 1/4, nearer the session high after hitting a two-week low early on. March soybean meal rose $0.90 to $294.50, nearer the daily high. March soybean oil fell 31 points to 53.20 cents, nearer the daily high and hit a two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil markets saw technical selling pressure today. Spreaders were also featured buying meal and selling bean oil futures. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices today limited buying interest in the soy complex futures. The extreme volatility in the gold and silver markets also has the grain markets bulls still a bit leery.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean inspections for export totaled 1.31 MMT for the week ended Jan. 29, down 25,752 MT from the previous week. Net sales were within the expected pre-report range of 600,000 MT of 1.4 MMT.
U.S. soybean crushers likely processed 6.914 million short tons, or 230.4 million bushels, of soybeans in December, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of this afternoon’s monthly USDA crush report. If the average of estimates is realized, the U.S. soybean crush would be up 4.5% from the 220.5 million bushels crushed in November of last year and up 5.9% from the December 2024 crush of 217.7 million bushels. U.S. soyoil stocks as of December 31 were estimated at 2.279 billion pounds, according to the Reuters survey.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 10% of their 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, up 5 percentage points from the previous week and exceeding the 9% reported year-ago for the same period.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next week will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some welcome showers are advertised for western and interior southern Brazil this weekend into next week, easing dryness there. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain. Rain frequency in center south Brazil may be a little high for aggressive early season soybean harvesting and Safrinha corn planting, but some progress is expected.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at the January high of $10.85 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of $10.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.64 and then at $10.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $10.51 3/4 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at Friday’s high of $296.40 and then at $300.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $292.00 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 53.45 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 52.61 cents and then at 52.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 10 1/4 cents to $5.27 3/4, nearer the session low. March HRW lost 9 1/2 cents to $5.35 1/4, nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $5.71 1/2.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw selling pressure amid solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and sharp losses in the crude oil futures market. Some technical selling was also featured as stiff chart resistance levels lie just above present prices.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat inspections totaled 326,828 MT for the week ended Jan. 29, down 52,163 MT from the previous week. Net inspections were within the pre-report range of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said no new winterkill occurred in the U.S. and none occurred in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere during the weekend. Weather conditions are unlikely to be threatening for the next 10 days. Meantime, drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Tunisia dryness has also been eased recently with more moisture coming. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture in recent weeks and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be falling in the next week to ten days. Local flooding will be possible in western France, western Spain, Portugal and the southern Balkan Countries; including western and southern Turkey. Precipitation and/or sufficient soil moisture is present around the world in most other winter crop areas maintaining a favorable outlook for wheat and other small grains, although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, parts of eastern and northern France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies when spring arrives. There may be some rising flood potential for this late winter and spring in the western Former Soviet Union due to saturated soil and a very deep snow pack that has to melt.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. However, the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrends alive. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.44 3/4 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/4 and then at $5.07.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.53 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.16. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.50 and then at $5.60. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at last week’s low of $5.25 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 50 points to 62.67 cents, near mid-range and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw technical selling today, with some light short covering pulling prices up from their daily low. The technical posture for cotton futures remains firmly bearish. Solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices today worked against the cotton market bulls.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas needs rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that will result from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region will be less than usual this spring. The impressive weekend snowstorm in the Carolinas and neighboring areas of Georgia and Virginia brought some moisture to the region for use in the spring. Additional precipitation is needed in these areas and northern Florida and southeastern Alabama. Meantime, excessive heat and dryness in Australia has stressed cotton. The heatwave is now over, but significant rain is unlikely for a while and dryland crops will continue to struggle. Irrigated crops should quickly improve as temperatures become less threatening. Easternmost cotton in Queensland was never impacted by the extreme heat that over areas New South Wales and western cotton areas of Queensland were. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 62.20 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.