Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 2 1/4 cents to $4.28 1/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a two-week high overnight.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a corrective pullback today following good gains on Friday. Bulls got no help from a sharply lower U.S. dollar index today that hit a four-month low. USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.51 MMT for the week ended Jan. 22, up 24,293 MT from the previous week. Year-to-date corn inspections are running 53.3% ahead of the same period last year.
President Trump is expected to give a speech in Clive, Iowa around midday on Tuesday and may face tough questions on the administration’s position on the use of year-round E-15.
AgRural reported producers in Brazil had harvested 5% of the first corn crop as of last Thursday, which lagged last year’s pace of 8.6% last year. Second safrinha corn-crop plantings were estimated to 4.7% complete, up from 2.2% last year. AgRural increased its forecast for Brazil’s 2025-26 corn output to 136.6 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 136 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development the next two weeks, with the driest areas from Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo as well as western into central Bahia benefitting from the rain. Exceptions will occur in Rio Grande do Sul, where rain into Feb. 5 will be infrequent and light, leading to additional drying favorable conditions for increasing crop stress that will expand from southern areas where soil moisture is already short into some central and northern areas. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 6-9 in southern Brazil, where enough rain may fall to ease stress to crops and induce increases in soil moisture with confidence low for this event. In Argentina, additional rain will fall during the next week in western regions, where the drier areas will benefit from further increases in soil moisture and improvements in crop conditions while central and eastern Argentina sees little rain and rising levels of crop stress in the drier areas. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 3-7 as early indications suggest the widespread precipitation advertised will be adequate in improving conditions for crops in the driest parts of central and southern Argentina with confidence low for this event.
Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at $4.40. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the contract low of $4.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.31 1/2 and then at $4.35. First support is seen at $4.25 and then at $4.22 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 6 cents to $10.61 3/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week high early on. March soybean meal fell $5.60 to $294.30, nearer the daily low. March soybean oil fell 10 points to 53.89 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a four-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets today saw corrective pullbacks that included technically bearish “outside days” down on the daily charts—suggesting the bulls have quickly become exhausted. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index that hit a four-month low today gave no help to the soybean complex bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 1.32 MMT for the week ended Jan. 22, down 20,672 MT from the previous week. Year-to-date soybean inspections are running 37.5% behind year-ago.
As of last Thursday, farmers in Brazil had harvested 4.9% of the 2025-26 soybean crop, up 2% from the previous week and above the 3.9% seen a year earlier, according to AgRural. The firm raised its forecast for the 2025-26 Brazilian soybean crop to 181 MMT, up from its previous estimate of 180.4 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next 7-10 days will raise some concern for soybeans, corn and other crops because some of those areas are already drying down. Some welcome showers are advertised for western and interior southern Brazil later this week into next week easing dryness there. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $10.76 1/4 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.52 and then at the January low of $10.37 3/4.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $306.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $300.00 and then at today’s high of $302.30. First support is seen at today’s low of $294.00 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the August 2025 high of 56.11 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 54.71 cents and then at 55.00 cents. First support is seen at 53.00 cents and then at 52.37 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW lost 7 cents to $5.22 1/2 and near the session low after hitting a six-week high early on. March HRW fell 11 cents to $5.29 3/4 and near the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 5 1/4 cents to $5.69 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw significant downside corrections from Friday’s good gains as the bulls appear to have quickly become exhausted. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index that today hit a four-month low offered no help for the wheat market bulls, nor did the potential for winterkill in some U.S. wheat regions.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 351,001 MT for the week ended Jan. 22, down 46,773 MT from the previous week. Year-to-date inspections are running 18.2% ahead of the same period last year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, Nebraska and a few areas in Colorado may have suffered a little wheat damage during the weekend because of snow free conditions and high and low temperatures hovering near the damage threshold. “The crown of many wheat crops may have been damaged, although an assessment will not be possible prior to spring and some of the impact will not be known until the harvest is complete.” In the Northern Plains, winterkill conditions may have occurred in portions of Montana and South Dakota, where snow-free conditions prevailed all weekend while temperatures hovered near the damage threshold day and night. An assessment of damage, if any, will also not be possible prior to spring.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at lower levels. This is likely “basing” action that will put in a market bottom at some point and likely sooner rather than later. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.33 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.14 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the January high of $5.44 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.40 and then at $5.44 3/4. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at $5.16.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 84 points to 62.97 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market saw heavy technical selling pressure today. A sharply lower U.S. dollar index today that hit a four-month low failed to help out the cotton futures bulls. Apparently the cotton market bulls were given an extra negative jolt today as U.S.-Canada relations continue to sour following Canada’s recent overtures to China. Cotton traders reckoned China was not too happy about the U.S. rebuking Canada because of its recent trade deal with China.
World Weather Inc. today said many cotton areas from southeastern Arizona through Texas and the Delta to portions of the southeastern states were impacted by the weekend snow, rain and ice storm. “The moisture will be good for crops in the spring although south Texas received little to no rain and west Texas moisture was also limited.” Drought continues from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama into the eastern Carolinas. Meantime, late-season cotton in southern India continues to mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality.
Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing favorably as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Excessive heat and dryness in the coming week will stress all crops especially those already suffering from moisture stress in New South Wales and western production areas of Queensland.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the January high of 65.76 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 62.55 cents and then at 62.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 3 points to 64.88 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today paused following Monday’s gains. Mostly lower grain futures prices limited buying interest in cotton. However, sellers were kept at bay as crude oil prices rallied to a three-month high today.
World Weather Inc. today said precipitation is needed in most of Texas and from Florida and southeastern Alabama to the Carolinas and Virginia. Additional moisture would also be good for Arizona and southern California, but precipitation may be restricted for a while in the next 10 days. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to fill, mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit greatly from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still a concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Not much change in weather or crop conditions is likely for a while. Production is expected to be reduced by a cut in area planted and by poor rainfall in dryland production areas of the west. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season, though recent weather has improved and much of the planting should now be complete or nearly complete. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures would be best for the crop.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. However, the bulls are working on keeping alive price uptrend on the daily bar chart. They need to show more power soon to do so. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 67.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 63.68 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 65.25 cents and then at the January high of 65.76 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 64.47 cents and then at 64.26 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.