Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 1/2 cent to $4.40 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw short covering and perceived bargain buying, but gains had faded by the close. A weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices today were friendly outside markets for corn.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 125,000 MT to Colombia during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 2.01 MMT for the week ended Feb. 19, up 500,199 MT from the previous week. Corn inspections are outpacing year-ago by 19.4% during the same period last year.
AgRural estimated Brazil safrinha corn plantings were 50% complete as of last Thursday, compared to 64% a year earlier. The first corn harvest was estimated to be 28% complete.
World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks will favor northern Brazil, where soil moisture will be left favorable for crop development and for long-term Safrinha corn prospects. Central and especially southern Brazil and Paraguay will see much less rain than northern Brazil and any round of rain will be important for Safrinha corn development.
Soil moisture is marginal to short in many Safrinha corn areas from Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana and nearby Sao Paulo and rain into Thursday will be highly beneficial to that crop. However, drier weather Friday into Tuesday of next week will evaporate much of the moisture from the coming rain. In Argentina, more sunshine than rain is expected during the next 10 days in central and eastern regions, where stress to crops is likely to increase in the drier areas while occasional rain and favorable soil moisture in place today in south-central and western Argentina allows most crops to develop in a favorable environment.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage and have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the January low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.45 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.37 3/4 and then at $4.34.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 3 1/2 cents to $11.49 3/4, nearer the session low and hit a two-month high early on. May soybean meal fell $1.30 to $312.50, near mid-range. May soybean oil gained 58 points to 59.88, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and bean oil futures market today saw more technical buying early on, with the meal being a slight laggard due to spreaders again selling meal and buying bean oil. Beans lost their gains around midday amid selling interest tied to the uncertainty of the U.S. tariff regime going forward.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 669,865 MT for the week ended Feb. 19 were down 544,566 MT from the previous week. Net inspections are running 32% behind year ago.
Brazil’s soybean harvest was estimated to be 30% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was the slowest pace since 2020-21 amid delayed plantings, longer crop cycles and rain during harvest
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil weather patterns over the next couple of weeks will be well mixed to support fieldwork, crop maturation and ongoing crop development. There will be some net drying in southern Brazil for a while, but as long as rain resumes later in the season before the monsoon ends all will be good. Argentina’s recent rain has helped reduce dryness and improve crop conditions. Some of the stressful conditions this summer may have shaved down yield potentials, but no disaster occurred and the smaller crop will easily be countered by the big crop in Brazil.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.77 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.65 and then at $11.77 3/4. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.36 1/2 and then at $11.30.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $292.70. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $316.40 and then at $320.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.30 and then at last week’s low of $306.70.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is now short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 62.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 57.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 60.56 cents and then at 61.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 59.00 cents and then at 57.88 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.73 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly seven-month high early on. May HRW lost 13 cents to $5.72 1/4, near the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell a nickel to $5.82 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets today saw routine profit-taking pressure from recent gains.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections of 535,113 MT for the week ended Feb. 19, up 157,140 MT from the previous week. Net wheat inspections are running 19.4% ahead of year ago during the same period.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, precipitation in the next seven days will be quite limited with plenty of unusual warmth again. Recent cold air is quickly leaving the region today and unusually warm weather will dominate the weather pattern for the next two weeks. Some greening and minor early season wheat development is expected as the temperatures warm and become consistently above average. Faster drying rates will lead to a greater need for rain as time moves along. Some greater rainfall is likely in the second week of the outlook as a more spring-like weather pattern tries to evolve. However, most of the significant precipitation is expected in the east leaving the west quite dry with expanding dryness and drought. In the Northern Plains, occasional snow will occur in the next seven days with a variable temperature pattern. The resulting snowfall and associated moisture will be beneficial in spring when crops are developing. The drier-biased southwestern areas should receive some precipitation, too.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.83 1/2 and then at $5.90. First support is seen at $5.70 and then at $5.59.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.37 3/4. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $5.90 3/4 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.60 and then at $5.50.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton fell 49 points to 65.14 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw a downside price correction following good gains posted late last week. Losses were somewhat limited by a weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices today.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California will fall back to a drier bias after some rain fell last week. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical for this time of year. Meantime, recent rain in Queensland, Australia was welcome and should have improved some crops in the region. However, some of the rain came a little late in the summer for the best improvement in production potentials. Sufficient rain in both New South Wales and Queensland in recent weeks should have improved short term crop development potential. Dry conditions will now prevail for a while. Late season cotton in southern India should be mostly harvested.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field and the bulls are working on a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the January high of 67.11 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 65.72 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at 64.50 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.