Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $4.26 1/2, near the daily low and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more selling pressure as the near-term price uptrend on the daily chart for December corn has been negated. Losses in the soybean and wheat futures markets also spilled over into selling in corn futures. The U.S. dollar index hit a six-month high today, which is a bearish outside-market element for the grains. Also, a late, steep sell-off in the U.S. stock market added to selling pressure in the grain futures markets.
USDA today reported robust weekly U.S. corn export sales of 2.260 MMT for the week ended Oct. 2, as the department plays catch-up in reporting weekly export sales that were delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall should increase leading to improved topsoil moisture and better long-term crop development potential. Some dryness may return in late December and/or January.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading and need to show fresh power soon to keep their chart edge. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.42 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.16. First resistance is seen today’s high of $4.31 1/4 and then at Wednesday’s high of $4.36 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.25 3/4 and then at $4.20.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 13 3/4 cents to $11.22 1/2, near the session low. December soybean meal lost $4.90 to $314.00, near the daily low and hit a two-week low. December soybean oil fell 44 points to 50.66 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw more profit-taking pressure from the shorter-term speculators today. There are early technical clues the soybean and meal futures bulls are now exhausted, which may embolden the speculative, chart-based bears to press their case on the short sides Friday. The U.S. dollar index hit a six-month high today, which is a bearish outside-market element for the soy complex.
U.S. soybean weekly export sales in the week ended Oct. 2 were lackluster at 919,400 MT. On the daily front, USDA reported U.S. soybean export sales of 462,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025-26 marketing year. That brings China up to a potential 2.42 MMT out of the proposed 12 MMT goal of sales by the end of the year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil soybean regions, much of Mato Grosso into Goias will be dry today and should see aggressive fieldwork in anticipation of greater rain beginning Friday while Bahia receives significant rainfall. Rain will be frequent across northern Brazil during the remainder of the next two weeks and fieldwork should become sluggish. Soybean planting needs to be completed soon to ensure the crop is harvested early enough to prevent significant Safrinha corn planting delays. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Many areas will likely be in need of greater rain by early December. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks across Argentina around two rounds of organized rain with nearly all areas likely to receive rain from at least one of those two events. Rain today into Friday and Wednesday into Friday of next week along with soil moisture in place should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and rain into Friday will either miss the region or be very light. A few showers Saturday and rain Wednesday into Friday of next week should impact the region and will slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed soon across these areas and in a growing part of western Argentina.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.42 3/4 and then at $11.52 1/2. First support is seen at $11.20 and then at this week’s low of $11.14 1/4.
December soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $334.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $321.10 and then at $327.30. First support is seen at $310.50 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 52.48 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 9 3/4 cents to $5.27, near the daily low. December HRW fell 9 1/4 cents to $5.06 1/4, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. December spring wheat futures fell 9 1/4 cents to $5.72, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw technical selling pressure today as near-term price uptrends on the daily charts have stalled out. Reports that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may be in the works have also been bearish for the wheat markets. However, there have been no comments coming from U.S. or Russia government officials. The U.S. dollar index hit a six-month high today, which is a bearish outside-market element for the grains.
U.S. wheat export sales in the week ended Oct. 2 were impressive at 887,900 MT. Meantime, USDA also reported a daily sale of 132,000 MT of white wheat for delivery to China.
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for 2025/26 global wheat production by 3 million tons, to 830 million, partly driven by improved crop outlooks in Kazakhstan and Argentina, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country significant dryness relief is expected in the next seven days across the region due mainly to two storm systems, the first occurring today into Friday and the second occurring Sunday into Monday. A majority of the region isn’t in a drought. However, dryness in recent weeks has led to short to very short soil moisture in most areas and rain is needed to improve winter wheat establishment ahead of dormancy. Much colder air will begin to arrive Tuesday or Wednesday and then continue in the second week of the outlook. This will notably cool the soil and should lead to a much greater transition to dormancy for the winter wheat crop. In the Northern Plains, not much precipitation is expected in the next seven days. There is some concern due to much colder temperatures that will begin to arrive Tuesday. Eventually, temperatures will likely become threateningly cold (below zero Fahrenheit), at least for morning lows in some parts of the region, and there will be a need for snow cover to protect crops. The coldest air in the next two weeks may occur Nov. 30 – Dec. 3. Some snow should occur before this coldest air arrives, but a close monitoring of the forecast will be warranted, said World Weather.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have lost their the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.43 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.50 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.24 1/2 and then at $5.17 1/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.40. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.20 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.05 3/4 and then at $5.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton lost 62 points to 61.68 cents, nearer the daily low and set a contract low.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw heavy technical selling pressure. A sell off in the grain futures markets today also spilled over into selling in the cotton market. The U.S. dollar index hit a six-month high today, which is a bearish outside-market element for the natural fiber.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California and Arizona delayed late-season farming activity and may have discolored unharvested crops. West Texas will receive rain Thursday and Friday with more Sunday into Monday and that will also induce some discoloring of cotton fiber, although drier weather should be quick to return. The far southeastern corner of the U.S. cotton region will experience ongoing drought conditions which will preserve fiber quality as the late harvest advances. Late-season crops in Virginia and the Carolinas may be subjected to some wet weather for a little while slowing fieldwork.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the October high of 62.59 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 62.00 cents and then at today’s high of 63.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 61.24 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.