New Advice Alert
Wheat producers: Extend 2025-crop sales, 2026-crop sales... The uptrend in wheat futures has stalled out and prices are in a precarious position as bulls face fundamental headwinds. Both the U.S. and world balance sheets are seen rising with ample production and ending stocks. We advise all wheat producers to sell another 20% of 2025-crop to get to 50% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling another 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year, to get to 20% forward sold.
Corn
Price action: December corn futures fell 7 cents to $4.29 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw selling pressure from a rally in the U.S. dollar index, weaker crude oil prices, and losses in the soybean and wheat futures markets. Bulls do not want to see follow-through selling pressure on Thursday that could negate the price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart for December futures.
World Weather Inc. today said in Brazil, corn areas from central and southern Mato Grosso to Goias will see little rain through Thursday and aggressive fieldwork in anticipation of greater rain beginning Friday, while rain into Thursday will favor Bahia. Rain will be frequent across northern Brazil during the remainder of the next two weeks and fieldwork should become sluggish while soybean planting needs to be completed soon to ensure Safrinha corn planting delays are not extended. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Many areas will likely be in need of greater rain by early December. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks around two rounds of organized rain and nearly all area will receive rain from at least one of those two events. Rain tonight into Friday and Nov. 26-28 along with soil moisture in place should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and rain later this week will either miss the region or be too light to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture. Subsoil moisture is still short in most areas from central La Pampa to San Luis to central and northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero. Showers Saturday and rain Nov. 26-28 should impact the region and will slow drying rates, but greater rain will be needed soon across these areas and in a growing part of western Argentina.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.42 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen $4.33 and then at at today’s high of $4.36 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.28 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $4.26 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 17 1/4 cents to $11.36 1/4, nearer the session low. December soybean meal lost $8.10 to $318.90, near the daily low. December soybean oil fell 107 points to 51.10 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw profit-taking pressure from recent gains today. Bearish outside markets today—a rally in the U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices—also aided the bears today. No chart damage was inflicted but the bulls do not want to see good follow-through selling pressure on Thursday.
Bulls got no help today from USDA reporting daily U.S. soybean sales of 330,000 MT of soybeans to China during the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center-west and northeastern Brazil rainfall should increase, leading to improved topsoil moisture and better long-term crop development potential. Some dryness may return in late December and/or January.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.52 1/2 and then at this week’s high of $11.69 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.35 1/4 and then at $11.25.
December soybean meal bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $334.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $327.30 and then at this week’s high of $331.70. First support is seen at this week’s low of $319.80 and then at $315.00.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 48.27 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 52.48 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.68 cents and then at 50.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 9 3/4 cents to $5.36 3/4, nearer the daily low and hit a nearly two-week high early on. December HRW fell 10 3/4 cents to $5.15 1/2, near the daily low. December spring wheat futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $5.81 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw selling pressure today amid rumblings that a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire may be in the works. However, there were no comments coming from Russia or Ukraine government officials. A rally in the U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices today were also bearish outside-market elements for the wheat futures markets.
Ukraine will not restrict wheat exports in the 2025-26 July-June season due to a higher harvest and lower export rates at the beginning of the current season, the deputy economy minister told Reuters earlier today.
Dean Dias, chief executive officer of Cereals Canada reported Tuesday the country is on tract to be the third largest wheat exporter and number one exporter of high quality, high-protein wheat.
World Weather Inc. today said rain coming to the U.S. southern Plains late this week and to the lower Midwest and Delta at the end of this week and into the weekend will be beneficial for wheat establishment, especially in areas that have been dry recently. Additional precipitation may occur next week, although cooling after that may push some crops into dormancy or at least semi-dormancy. Snow cover in Canada’s Prairies will return over the next week to ten days and the same will be true for the northern U.S. Plains later next week and into the early days of December. The snow will be needed to protect winter crops from colder temperatures. Meantime, wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has been sufficient enough this autumn for a relatively good start to growth in the spring as long as normal weather prevails. Greater moisture would still be welcome in Russia’s Southern region, although there is no crisis in the region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.50 1/2 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.35 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.25 and then at last week’s high of $5.34. First support is seen at $5.10 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton lost 27 points to 62.30 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a contract low close.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today saw technical selling pressure resume. Lower crude oil prices and a rally in the U.S. dollar index were also negative for cotton today, as was a somewhat risk averse general marketplace at mid-week. A sell off in the grain futures markets today also spilled over into selling in the cotton market.
World Weather Inc. today said two rounds of precipitation will impact western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma during the next week, interrupting harvesting and possibly discoloring some cotton with dry weather during the remainder of the next two weeks likely adequate to allow some cotton to be bleached white. The Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will also see two rounds of precipitation that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture. Much of western Texas into southwestern Oklahoma will receive 0.20-1.0” of rain and locally more today into Thursday with some heavier totals in the south and east.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 61.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 63.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s contract low of 61.98 cents and then at 61.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.