ADVICE ALERT: Wheat producers: Extend 2025-crop sales, 2026-crop sales... Winter wheat futures have rallied amid concerning weather in the Plains and the Black Sea. While export demand out of the U.S. remains robust, the world balance sheet continues to indicate an abundance of wheat. We advise all wheat producers to sell another 20% of 2025-crop to get to 70% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling another 10% of expected 2026-crop production for harvest delivery next year to get to 30% forward sold.
Corn
Price action: March corn fell 2 1/2 cents to $4.28 1/4, near mid-range and for the week down 2 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures today saw selling pressure amid the record-setting meltdown in the gold and silver markets, which saw the largest daily dollar losses in both markets’ history. That spooked the entire raw commodity sector and even made for a “risk-off” day in the stock and financial markets. We would not be surprised if today’s selling pressure in the grains is a “one-off” event, as such extreme selling pressure in the metals is not likely to be sustainable.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and central and northern Paraguay will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks and the drier areas from Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo as well as western into central Bahia will benefit from the rain while fieldwork is slowed at times. Exceptions will occur in Rio Grande do Sul and southern Paraguay where rain into Feb. 8 will be infrequent and light, leading to additional drying, favorable conditions for fieldwork, and increasing crop stress that will expand from southern areas, where soil moisture is already short, into some central and northern areas. Eastern Bahia will also dry down, but enough rain should fall there to prevent serious drying from taking place. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 9-13 in far southern Brazil where enough rain may fall to ease stress to crops and induce increases in soil moisture with confidence low for this event. Meantime, Argentina will see little rain into Monday and stress to crops will increase in the drier central and southern parts of the country, while warm to hot temperatures rapidly evaporate soil moisture while west-central and northwestern Argentina benefit from rain. Topsoil moisture is short in much of Argentina, while subsoil moisture is marginal to short from central Santa Fe to central and eastern Buenos Aires and Entre Rios where stress to crops will steadily increase until rain returns. The remainder of central and eastern Argentina has enough subsoil moisture to favorably support most crops during the next week while drying takes place. Western and south-central Buenos Aires and La Pampa into San Luis will benefit from rain Tuesday into Thursday while little rain falls elsewhere where stress to crops will increase in the drier areas. A close watch will be made on rain advertised for Feb. 6-9 as early indications suggest most of the drier areas will benefit from at least some precipitation. A drier weather pattern will resume Feb. 10-13 and stress to crops should return to areas that do not receive significant rain Feb. 6-8 while a growing part of the country will be left in need of greater rain.
90-day outlook: President Trump’s promise to deliver year-round E-15 this week was hardly met with lasting excitement even as the U.S. dollar continued its prolific plunge and crude oil scored a six month high. Big U.S. stockpiles and technicals that still lean overall bearish will continue to limit a move higher without a catalyst. As traders begin to look toward the 2026 crop, USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report will be the next major market driver, though hot, dry conditions in Argentina and potentially delayed safrinha corn plantings in Brazil could stir some excitement ahead of its release.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 8 cents to $10.64 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week were down 3 1/2 cents. March soybean meal fell $2.40 to $293.60, nearer the daily low and on the week down $6.30. March bean oil fell 52 points to 53.51 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 48 points.
5-day outlook: The low-range weekly closes today in the soybean complex futures argue for some follow-through technical selling early next week. However, the grain markets bulls were blind-sided today by the record-setting meltdowns in the gold and silver markets that sent shudders throughout the entire raw commodity futures sector and spooked the bulls. It’s likely the steep downdrafts in the metals markets will not last, which would allow grain market traders to resume focus on their own supply and demand fundamentals.
USDA is expected to report Monday that U.S. soybean crushers likely processed 6.914 million short tons, or 230.4 million bushels, of soybeans in December, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters. If that average of estimates gathered from seven analysts is realized, the crush would be up 4.5% from the 220.5 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.9% from the December 2024 crush of 217.7 million bushels. It would also be the second largest monthly crush on record.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said drying in far southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina for the next week will raise some concern for soybeans and other crops because some of those areas are already too dry. Some welcome showers are advertised for western and interior southern Brazil this weekend into next week easing dryness there. Western Argentina will also experience some timely rain. Rain frequency in center south Brazil may be a little high for aggressive early season soybean harvesting but some progress is expected.
90-day outlook: Reports this week said China has fulfilled, or is close to fulfilling, its commitment made last fall to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans. The reports said China is now looking to Brazil for beans. Harvest in Brazil continues to advance, with early yields proving strong. However, Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier noted weather concerns are present and underscored Conab’s cut to soybean acres for two consecutive months. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 30% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat lost 3 1/2 cents to $5.38, near mid-range after hitting a two-month high early on, and for the week up 8 1/2 cents. March HRW wheat fell 2 1/4 cents to $5.44 3/4, near mid-range after hitting a 2.5-month high early on, and on the week up 4 cents. March spring wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.78 1/4, near mid-range and for the week up 3 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets bulls ran for cover today amid the record-setting meltdown in the gold and silver futures markets that at one point saw gold down over $600 and silver down over $37. On the positive side for the wheat markets, today’s huge downdrafts in the metals are likely a one-off event that will allow wheat traders to next week focus on their own supply and demand fundamentals—and not the fear and anxiety that pervaded the raw commodity markets today.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, temperatures Saturday morning will be below zero in eastern production areas. However, this is not of concern since there is protective snow cover in Kansas and Oklahoma. Nebraska has very little snow cover, but no additional damage is expected other than what may have already occurred a week ago. Precipitation in the next seven days will be quite limited. Precipitation in the next two weeks should be greatest in the Feb. 10 – 13 timeframe as colder air returns to the region after next week’s warm-up. In the Northern Plains, arctic air will be exiting the region after today and unusual warmth will then dominate the weather pattern for at least a week or so before a trend back towards colder-biased conditions occurs again. Occasional areas of snow are expected and a little rain, too, in southwestern areas. Worldwide, bitter cold in western Russia and northeastern Europe has also been persistent in the past week; though snow cover is protecting winter crops there as well. Drought in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria has been eased and will continue to be eased. Tunisia dryness has also been eased recently with more moisture coming. France has seen some improved topsoil moisture in recent weeks and more precipitation is needed to end long term drought. Some of that moisture will be falling in the next week to ten days. Local flooding will be possible in western France, western Spain, Portugal and the southern Balkan Countries; including western and southern Turkey.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a four-year low. Trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting than price trends in other markets. If so, a weaker greenback in the coming months is a bullish element for the U.S. wheat markets—making U.S. wheat more price-competitive on world trade markets. However, the USDX did rebound today on the news that Kevin Warsh, known as a U.S. monetary policy hawk, was chosen by President Trump as the next Fed chair nominee.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 31 points to 63.17 cents, nearer the session low and for the week down 64 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market bulls today scurried to the sidelines amid the major, record-setting meltdown in the gold and silver futures markets. There’s an old trading adage that says during panic times, if you can’t sell what you want, you sell what you can. The strong selling in the metals futures spilled over into selling pressure in the cotton and grain futures markets today. The positive is that the steep downdrafts in metals and the bearish impact on cotton will not last long and may be a one-off daily event.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas needs rain to support planting in early March. West Texas recently benefited from snow and the moisture that will result from it, but more moisture is needed in the region. Rain is also needed in Arizona and neighboring areas of Mexico and California. Mountain snowpack in the southern Rocky Mountain region and will be less than usual this spring. Dryness is also expected in the southeastern U.S. this spring and especially during the summer. Spring rain will be timely, though lighter than usual at times. Meantime, excessive heat and dryness in Australia is stressing cotton especially in dryland production areas. Smaller boll sized and a slightly reduced boll count is anticipated because of dryness in western unirrigated production areas this year. Irrigated cotton and dryland crops in eastern Queensland are likely in the best shape and will probably yield well. Relief is expected this weekend and next week in the forms of cooler temperatures and erratic shower activity, though a general soaking is needed. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to mature and be harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Argentina crop conditions are favorable. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days. Cotton planting in Brazil has advanced well and should benefit from a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of rain.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. cotton sales of 203,700 RB for 2025/2026 were down 51 percent from the previous week and down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. China did take 38,800 RB. Exports of 257,000 RB were a marketing-year high and up 37 percent from the previous week and up 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. U.S. cotton sales and shipments abroad will need to continue to rise from present levels for the cotton market to be able to sustain a price uptrend. The National Cotton Council will meet in February and release the first 2026 acreage projection.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.