Cotton producers: Advance 2025, 2026 crop sales... We advise cotton producers to sell another 20% of 2025 production, bringing total sales to 60%. Additional old-crop sales are likely in the coming weeks as the marketing year winds down. We also encourage additional sales of 15% of expected 2026 production, bringing total sales to 25%.
Corn
Price action: May corn futures closed steady at $4.54, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today paused as bulls try to stabilize the market after Monday’s price downdraft. Some more mild profit-taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term traders were also featured today.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine 2025-26 corn production estimates of 133 MMT and 53 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to lower bias toward both crops going forward.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. A few showers are possible but the precipitation expected will not be very relieving and more moisture will be needed. In contrast, areas from Minas Gerais to Mato Grosso are becoming a little too wet or soon will, which may delay some fieldwork. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay will receive some needed rain in the coming week with sufficient amounts to maintain moisture abundance in central Argentina and improve crop and field conditions in the east and into Uruguay.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at last week’s low of $4.45 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.59 and then at this week’s high of $4.66. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.49 1/4 and then at $4.45 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 1 3/4 cents to $11.57, near mid-range and hit a three-week low early on today. May soybean meal fell $0.50 to $311.70, near mid-range. May soybean oil rose 203 points to 65.97 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw a mild corrective bounce today after May and July futures closed locked down the daily limit on Monday. Bean bulls are trying to stabilize prices but have more work to do this week to achieve such. Bean oil prices rebounded strongly today on perceived bargain hunting, while the meal market paused.
President Trump today said in a press conference his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping will occur in five or six weeks.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine 2025-26 soybean production estimates of 178 MMT and 47 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to lower bias toward both crops going forward. He did increase his estimate for the Paraguayan soybean crop by 500,000 MT to 11.5 MMT.
Emater has lowered their estimate for soybean production in Rio Grande do Sul to 19 MMT, or a reduction of 2.4 MMT (11.3%) compared to its previous estimate of 21.4 MMT. The lower production resulted from insufficient and irregular rainfall and high temps during critical periods of crop development.
World Weather Inc. today said central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks. Parts of region still have marginal to short soil moisture and conditions. Paraguay will be wettest and will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while southern Mato Grosso do Sul into Parana sees the least rain and more limited improvements in crop and soil conditions. Northern Brazil will see regular rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times while crop development will occur favorably. In Argentina, a wetter weather pattern will occur during the next two weeks and all areas will see multiple rounds of rain that will slow fieldwork while improving conditions for crops in the drier areas. Enough rain should fall to induce significant improvements in soil moisture and at least a partial restoration of yield potential is likely.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have lost the overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at the March high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.70 1/2 and then at $11.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.45 1/4 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $315.00 and then at this week’s high of $319.80. First support is seen at $307.50 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained footing today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 67.15 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at today’s low of 63.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 7 1/2 cents to $5.89 3/4, nearer the daily low. May HRW lost 9 3/4 cents to $6.06 3/4, nearer the daily low. May spring wheat futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $6.24 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw follow-through technical selling pressure following Monday’s solid losses. Also negative for wheat this week has been reports from SovEcon that Russian wheat exports are on the rise.
Coceral cut its forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain this year, to 142.6 MMT, down from its previous estimate of 143.9 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said recent freezes in hard red winter wheat areas and in the interior southeastern parts of the nation may have damaged a few crops, although it is unclear how much damage occurred. Coming hot and dry conditions in the central and southwestern Plains will not bode well for any damaged crops. A wet and cool scenario is needed to induce new tillering, but that is unlikely to evolve in the next ten days. Snow-free conditions have returned to Ukraine and Russia’s southern region, where warming this month should set the stage for some early season fieldwork. Other areas to the north are still deeply buried in snow and will see a steady rate of melting this week, inducing some significant runoff and local flooding.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.07 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $6.13 3/4. First support is seen at $5.83 3/4 and then at $5.75.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at $6.20 and then at today’s high of 6.27 1/2. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 58 points to 68.77 cents, nearer the session high and hit a 4.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more short covering and technical buying featured amid better risk appetite in the general marketplace and a weaker U.S. dollar index so far this week. Cotton traders were also encouraged by news on Monday that top U.S. and Chinese economic officials held “remarkably stable” talks in Paris on Sunday. “The Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods including poultry, beef and non-soybean row crops, one of the sources said. Bulls are hoping U.S. cotton is also included.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the southern U.S. Plains, dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks, with a few infrequent rounds of precipitation that should not have a lasting impact on soil moisture, leaving much of the region in need of significant rain to improve conditions for planting. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that may occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain early this week, although drought status will remain.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 66.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 69.50 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.93 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.