Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 1/4 cent to $4.67, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw mild corrective selling pressure following Wednesday’s decent gains. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace today also limited buying interest in corn. Higher crude oil prices today did limit the downside in corn.
President Trump today said his administration will announce a variety of actions it is taking to support American farmers on Friday.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.22 MMT during the week ended March 19, up 4% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.5 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil weather continues favorable for ongoing crop development. There is need for greater rain in southern Safrinha crop areas and some of that will be provided in the next two weeks, although resulting amounts and frequency will be light. Southern Argentina will get more rain this weekend and periodically next week resulting in some delay to farming activity.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart for May corn. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.70 and then at $4.76. First support is seen at $4.60 and then at this week’s low of $4.56 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 2 cents to $11.73 3/4, near mid-range. May soybean meal gained $2.30 to $322.10, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil rose 92 points to 68.02 cents, near the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw some mild short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Keener risk aversion in the marketplace today did limit gains.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 668,900 MT during the week ended March 19, down 84% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Net sales topped the expected pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the region from Paraguay into northern Brazil will receive additional rain today that will be important in southern areas before a drier weather pattern occurs Friday into April 5 in central and southern Brazil and Paraguay. Northern Brazil will be wettest during the next 10 days and fieldwork will be slowed while the rain maintains favorable conditions for crop development. A timely round of rain is advertised to extend from southern Brazil and Paraguay into most of the remainder of Brazil Apr. 6-9. In Argentina, favorable soil moisture in place in much of the country today along with rain during the next two weeks should ensure favorable conditions for developing crops continue through the period while fieldwork is slowed with southern areas seeing the greatest rain and delays to fieldwork. Much of central and northern Argentina will see little rain through next Thursday and a close watch will be made on rain advertised for Apr. 3-9 as the moisture will be timely for developing crops.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.60 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $324.40 and then at Tuesday’s high of $327.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $316.40 and then at $312.00.
Bean oil bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at
60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 69.91 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 66.87 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 7 1/4 cents to $6.05, near the daily high. May HRW gained 9 cents to $6.26 3/4, near the session high. May spring wheat futures rose 4 1/4 cents to $6.45, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. Higher crude oil prices today were also supportive for wheat gains. Weather in U.S. wheat county also leans price-friendly.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, two significant periods of warmth will still occur in the next seven days. The first will be today and the second will be Sunday through Tuesday. The additional warm to hot air will cause more records to be broken and will further raise crop and livestock stress. Temperatures will be particularly extreme today in southwestern production areas in and near the Oklahoma Panhandle where highs will reach 100 to 105 degrees. The need for greater rainfall is becoming quite notable as unseasonably hot air continues to impact the region. Some rain is still expected to increase in early April, but a majority of this could end up in eastern production areas. In the Northern Plains, some occasional precipitation will occur in the next seven days and will be beneficial due to the upcoming growing season. Temperatures will be cooler-biased today into Friday and then unusually warm again Saturday through Monday before a potentially bigger surge of cold air occurs.
Hard red winter wheat futures traded at its biggest premium to soft red winter in more than seven months, as heat in the Plains and Midwest is set to exacerbate the stress on wheat crops there. Today, May HRW carried around a 24-cent premium to May SRW futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 397,200 MT during the week ended March 19, which were up noticeably from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. Net sales were right at the top-end of the expected pre-report range of 100,000 to 400,000 MT.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.06 1/2 and then at $6.16. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at this week’s low of $5.77 3/4.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at $6.30 and then at $6.38. First support is seen at $6.15 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 123 points to 69.41 cents, nearer the session high and hit a 5.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw technical buying, including buy stops being triggered just above last week’s highs. Gains in crude oil and grain prices today also helped out the cotton bulls. Solid weekly U.S. export shipments reported today also encouraged the bulls.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 202,400 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (91,400 RB), Pakistan (24,000 RB) and Turkey (17,400 RB). China bought 11,200 RB. Net sales of 27,000 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Peru (12,800 RB) and Honduras (10,000 RB). Exports of 400,600 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 46 percent from the previous week and up 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (164,100 RB), Pakistan (60,500 RB), Bangladesh (40,300 RB) and India (27,400 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation, especially in the mostly warm temperatures expected through at least the next week. Dry weather will also be most common through the next week in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas where a few light showers should not prevent fieldwork from taking place before a beneficial period of wetter weather occurs Apr. 4-6 when many areas see at least temporary increases in soil moisture
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today by re-establishing a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 71.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 70.50 cents. First support is seen at 69.00 cents and then at 68.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.