Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 3 1/2 cents to $4.54 1/4, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw technical selling pressure that negated a price uptrend on the daily bar chart—to give the bears still more technical momentum. Bulls got no help from a solidly lower U.S. dollar index today and better risk appetite in the general marketplace. Weaker crude oil prices favored the corn bears today. Corn traders tomorrow morning will examine the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the significant rain expected through this weekend will occur in northern Brazil, where the moisture will help to maintain favorable conditions for Safrinha corn in most areas. Soil moisture is mostly short from southern Mato Grosso do Sul into western Parana and stress to Safrinha corn should rise into this weekend as rain there should not be great enough to significantly improve conditions for the crop. Most other Safrinha corn areas in Mato Grosso do Sul as well as in Paraguay should have enough soil moisture to support the crop while drying takes place. In Argentina, favorable soil moisture in place in much of the country today along with rain through Monday will ensure favorable conditions for developing crops through the next two weeks. Northern Argentina will miss much of the rain through Friday and will see fieldwork advance well.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend on the daily bar chart for May corn was negated today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.65 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.57 and then at today’s high of $4.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.48 1/2 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 2 1/2 cents to $11.68 1/2, nearer the daily high. May soybean meal gained $1.80 to $318.20, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil lost 177 points to 67.11 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw technical selling pressure as bulls were turned back by stiff overhead technical resistance levels. Bean bulls got no help from a drop in the U.S. dollar index today and better risk appetite in the general marketplace. Spreaders were featured today unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads.
U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 6.430 million short tons, or 214.3 million bushels, of soybeans in February, according to analysts surveyed ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Wednesday and as reported by Reuters. If the average of estimates gathered from eight analysts is realized, the crush would be down 5.9% from the 227.8 million bushels processed in January, but up 13.1% from the February 2025 crush of 189.6 million bushels.
Indonesia’s palm oil association said today that biodiesel feedstock was expected to reach about 15 MMT this year, up 2 MMT from year-ago, after factoring in the B50 palm oil-based program, according to Reuters.
Soy complex traders tomorrow morning will examine the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in some interior southern Brazil areas is expected to be eased late this weekend into next week. Brazil’s center-west and northern center-south crop areas will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine favoring crops. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the south and additional wet weather over the next 10n days will delay crop maturation and harvesting while raising a level of concern over quality.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field amid choppy trading. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.53 and then at the March low of $11.45 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $320.00 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $312.30 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish double-top reversal pattern may now be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen today’s high of 69.10 cents and then at at the contract high of 69.91 cents. First support is seen at 66.50 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery and 40% protected with $11.60 strike November puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW lost 18 3/4 cents to $5.97 1/2, nearer the session low. HRW fell 21 3/4 cents to $6.13 3/4, nearer the session low. May spring wheat futures fell 17 1/2 cents to $6.41, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw heavy profit-taking pressure today after posting good gains Tuesday following a price-friendly U.S. planted acreage estimate from USDA. Wheat bulls got no help from a lower U.S. dollar index and better risk appetite in the general marketplace today. Today’s losses are a psychological blow to the bulls to suggest more selling pressure is likely in the near term. Wheat traders tomorrow morning will examine the weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, significant rainfall is still expected this week in eastern production areas, especially in central Oklahoma into southeastern crop areas of Kansas. Enough rain is likely for there to be localized flooding and some strong to severe thunderstorms will occur as well. There will be some rain in northwestern production areas too, but net drying is expected from the Texas Panhandle into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. In the Northern Plains, an active weather pattern is expected in the next several days with wet snow due to a couple of weather disturbances. The snow will cause travel delays and livestock stress, especially in northern South Dakota, southern North Dakota, and Minnesota. The associated moisture will still be good for the upcoming growing season. Temperatures will be generally below average, giving the region a continued break from the heat that occurred earlier in the month.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.20. First support is seen at $5.90 and then at $5.80.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.48 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at $6.25 and then at $6.35. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.91 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 76 points to 70.76 cents, near the session high and closed at an eight-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market bulls showed good resilience today following Tuesday’s bearish USDA planting intentions number. A lower U.S. dollar index and better risk appetite in the general marketplace today benefitted the cotton market bulls. Technical buying was also featured today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will have some opportunities for beneficial rain during the next two weeks. However, rain is likely to be too light to induce more than temporary improvements in soil moisture leaving the region in need of greater rain before the planting season. A close watch will be made on Apr. 9-13 when there is some potential for daily showers and thunderstorms to bring significant rain to the region. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend and south Texas will have multiple opportunities for rain during the next two weeks and much of the region will be left with beneficial increases in soil moisture while fieldwork is slowed at times.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 72.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 71.38 cents and then at 72.00 cents. First support is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.