Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $4.52 1/4, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more technical selling pressure and some profit-taking and weak long liquidation, especially early on. However, losses were significantly pared late. A big drop in crude oil prices again today also limited buying interest in corn futures.
In today’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, the agency said its 2025/26 corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global corn carryover was pegged at 292.75 MMT for 2025-26, up from 288.98 MMT in February but still below 295.82 MMT in 2024-25.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn production estimate 2 MMT, to 133 MMT, as 2.4 million to 4.9 million safrinha corn acres will not get planted, with an additional 14.8 million acres at risk of lower yields due to late planting. Cordonnier left his Argentine production estimate unchanged at 53 MM. He holds a neutral to lower bias going forward for both crops.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness, although most computer forecast models suggest at least partial relief will occur over the next two weeks. As long as that occurs, the outlook for crops in Brazil will remain very good. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay remain drier than usual and in need of rain. Some of that need may be partially fulfilled by rain expected next week; though follow up precipitation will be needed. In the meantime, the heart of Argentina’s coarse grain and oilseed region will remain in good shape with alternating periods of rain and sun dominating the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Monday’s price action in corn produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Today’s follow-through selling pressure strengthened that chart pattern. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.35. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.54 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.45 1/2 and then at $4.40.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents to $12.01 3/4, nearer the high. May soybean meal rose $1.00 to $314.50, near mid-range. May soybean oil lost 48 points to 65.62, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures saw corrective bounces today and benefitted from a mildly friendly USDA report. The meal market paused and saw some mild profit-taking. USDA forecast Argentina bean production at 48.0 MMT for 2025-26, which compares with 48.5 MMT from its February report and 51.11 MMT in 2024-25. For Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT production for 2025-26, unchanged from February and compares with 171.50 MMT in 2024-25. USDA’s 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports increased 5 million bushels reflecting trade to date. Crush was increased 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use.
Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier maintained his 2025-26 Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates of 178 MMT and 47 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to lower bias toward production going forward.
China’s soybean imports fell in the first two months of the year, weighed down by most U.S. shipments yet to arrive, a slow harvest in Brazil and extended customs clearance, according to Reuters.
World Weather Inc. today said southern Brazil and southern Paraguay will have good opportunities for fieldwork during the next two weeks. Some rain is expected, but dry weather will be most common and with marginal to short soil moisture in place in many areas in the region. Central and northern Brazil and central and northern Paraguay will see regular rain during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed at times while crop development will occur favorably. In Argentina, most areas will be dry into Thursday and fieldwork should advance well, with some western areas seeing rain. The drier parts of the country, beginning in the south Friday and later expanding into central and northern Argentina, will then see a wetter weather pattern that will continue into Mar. 23 and enough rain should fall to induce significant improvements and crop and soil conditions, likely reversing some of the recent declines in yield potentials. Much of the remainder of Argentina will also see a wetter weather pattern slowing fieldwork while maintaining favorable crop conditions.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, price action Monday produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at this week’s high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.07 1/2 and then at $12.15. First support is seen at $11.90 and then at today’s low of $11.77 3/4.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $318.50 and then at this week’s high of $321.30. First support is seen at $312.00 and then at last week’s low of $307.50.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, today’s bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart suggests a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.00 cents and then at 67.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.38 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 12 1/4 cents to $5.91, near mid-range. May HRW lost 11 cents to $6.08 3/4, near mid-range. May spring wheat futures fell 11 cents to $6.35.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw follow-through technical selling pressure today, after Monday’s losses. Sharply lower crude oil prices again today were also negative for wheat futures. In today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, the agency made no changes this month for 2025/26 wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up $0.05 per bushel to $4.95 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. For global wheat production the agency forecast 276.96 MMT for 2025-26, down from 277.51 MMT in February and compares with 259.63 MMT in 2024-25
India’s wheat production in 2026 is likely to jump to a record 120.21 MMT, the government said earlier today, as ample monsoon rainfall helped farmers to expand the area under the winter crop.
Ukraine’s largest agricultural producers’ union UAC predicts the extreme frosts have damaged 7-8% of winter wheat crops, higher than official estimates, it said earlier today. Ukraine’s economy ministry this week said the average loss of winter crops across the country will not exceed 5% in 2026, but the loss rate in the central Kirovohrad region may reach 40% and in the Vinnytsia region 30%.
World Weather Inc. today said too much heat and some dryness in the western wheat areas of the U.S. Plains is threatening a poor start to crop development this spring. There is also some concern over crop conditions in Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, South Dakota and Montana, since those areas were snow-free when bitter cold occurred in late January and early February, possibly damaging some of the crop. A warm and dry spring will not support a very good recovery from cold-damage and a wetter and milder weather regime is needed. In the meantime, cold-damage that may have occurred in the Midwest in the heart of winter may be fixed by recent rain and mild weather that is slated for the coming week. The environment may promote new tillering. Freezes expected next week should not permanently harm U.S. wheat.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. Price uptrends are still in place on the daily bar charts. However, Monday’s bearish buying exhaustion tails on the daily bar charts are clues that near-term market tops are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at $6.10. First support is seen at $5.85 and then at $5.75.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at 6.15 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.98 1/4 and then at $5.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 68 points to 65.30 cents, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. A weaker U.S. dollar index and improved risk appetite in the general marketplace today also helped out the cotton bulls. Gains in cotton were limited by another big drop in crude oil prices today. In its monthly supply and demand report today, USDA made no changes to the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet or to prices this month. For global cotton production, the agency forecast 76.39 million bales for 2025-26, up from 75.11 million bales in February and compares with 73.76 million bales in 2024-25
World Weather Inc. today said dry weather will be most common through the next two weeks in the southern U.S. Plains, with exceptions today into Wednesday, when the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend benefit from rain. Much of the Blacklands and the Coastal Bend will receive 0.15-1.0” of rain and locally more today into Wednesday, while much of the central and northern Coastal Bend receives up to 0.30” and locally more with southern areas dry. Much more rain will be needed to increase soil moisture to favorable levels before the planting season. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see infrequent rounds of mostly light showers during the next two weeks that should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.58 cents and then at 66.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.60 cents and then at this week’s low of 64.08 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.