Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 cent to $4.25 1/2, hit a nearly four-week low and closed nearer the daily low. For the week, December corn was down 4 3/4 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures bulls faded badly this week, including today’s technically bearish weekly low close that sets the table for more chart-based speculator selling interest early next week. Bulls are hoping that now with harvest virtually over, focus will be more on the stronger domestic and export demand picture for corn that should keep a floor under corn futures prices.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said rain will increase across northern Brazil today and frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through the next two weeks, improving conditions for developing corn crops while slowing fieldwork. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see more sunshine than rain during the next two weeks, allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Timely rain Nov. 29-Dec. 2 will help ensure soil moisture remains favorable into early December, but many areas will likely need follow-up rain soon. Meantime, in Argentina, dry and favorable conditions for fieldwork will occur through much of next two weeks, with one round of timely rain advertised for Wednesday into Sat., Nov. 29. Rain next week, along with soil moisture in place, should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short stress to crops may rise as moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation and temperatures become hot Wednesday into Thursday. Subsoil moisture is still short in most areas from central La Pampa to San Luis to central and northern Cordoba and Santiago del Estero. Rain Wednesday into the following Saturday will induce improvements in crop and soil conditions, but without follow-up rain those improvements will be temporary.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a nearly six-month high, which added to the selling pressure in the grain futures markets. If the USDX continues to trend higher in the coming months, which may be likely given the recent more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, such would continue to be a bearish weight on corn prices.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: After hitting a two-week low early on today, January soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $11.25, near the daily high and for the week up 1/2 cent. December soybean meal today hit a two-week low early on and closed up $1.10 at $315.10, near mid-range and on the week down $7.40. December bean oil fell 40 points to 50.26 cents, near mid-range and hit a two-week low. For the week, December meal rose 11 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets bulls faded badly this week, after starting the week on a strong note, to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in place. No serious chart damage occurred this week, but the bean and meal bulls need to step up and show price strength early next week, to keep the speculative, chart-based bears from being more aggressive sellers.
30-day outlook: Soybean planting in Argentina rose 12 percentage points to an estimated 24.6% completion rate, though flooding in Buenos Aires is causing delays, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center west and northeastern Brazil rainfall should increase leading to improved topsoil moisture and better long term crop development potential. Some dryness may return in late December and/or January.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a six-month high and is trending up. Price trends in the currency markets tend to last longer than trends in other markets, suggesting the greenback may continue to appreciate in the coming weeks/months. That’s a bearish omen for the U.S. soybean market, especially when U.S. beans are struggling to stay price competitive with South American supplies.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat closed unchanged at $5.27, nearer the daily high and for the week down 17 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 4 3/4 cents to $5.11, nearer the daily high after hitting a four-week low early on. For the week, December HRW lost 4 1/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $5.65, near the daily low. For the week, December spring wheat was down a 1/4 of a cent.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat market bulls have lost momentum, especially in SRW, and the bulls need to show some power early next week to keep the markets stabilized and to keep the spec sellers at bay. Wheat traders will closely monitor weekend developments on the Russia-Ukraine war front, as the U.S. and Russia are pushing Ukraine to accept their ceasefire/peace proposal. A halt in military action on both sides would likely open the door to increased wheat shipments coming out of the Black Sea.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, more dryness relief is expected in the next seven days. Additional rain will occur today as one storm system exits the region and then another rain event will occur Sunday into Monday. A third storm system is likely to impact the region in the Nov. 29 – Dec. 2 timeframe bringing rain and snow to the region. The snow will be needed to protect wheat from bitter cold conditions that will likely evolve in the first week of December. In the Northern Plains, the need for protective snow cover is increasing for next week and especially the Nov. 29 – Dec. 3 timeframe, when an arctic air mass likely impacts the region. A storm system has increased in likelihood for Monday into Wednesday to provide some snow. This will be better than none. However, it may still leave some pockets of the region exposed and a follow-up snow event will be needed before the coldest air arrives. Follow-up snow is likely Nov. 28 – 30 and this has potential to provide adequate protection, though a close monitoring of the forecast will be warranted.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit nearly six-month high and the USDX is trending up. That’s a potentially bearish longer-term development for the U.S. wheat market, which is already struggling to be price-competitive on world trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 33 points to 61.35 cents, nearer the daily low and hit a new contract low today. For the week, December cotton lost 114 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market’s solidly bearish near-term technical posture does not bode well for futures price action next week. It appears the speculative technical sellers are more aggressively playing their hands. Cotton traders will look to the grain futures markets and the U.S. stock market for price direction next week.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rains in California and Arizona delayed late-season farming activity and may have discolored unharvested crops. West Texas received rain Thursday and will receive additional rain Sunday into Monday, although amounts will be light. Most of the cotton quality issues in Texas will be minor while crops in California may have taken a little greater hit due to greater amounts of rain and longer duration. Some showers will return to the far western U.S. and west Texas at the end of this month and into the first days of December. The far southeastern corner of the U.S. cotton region will experience ongoing drought conditions which will preserve fiber quality as the late harvest advances. Late- season crops in Virginia and the Carolinas may be subjected to some wet weather for a little while today and early next week, slowing fieldwork briefly.
30-day outlook: Export demand prospects for U.S. cotton are dour as U.S. harvest is in the late stages. Cotton traders are looking forward to getting a fresh look at weekly U.S. export sales data from USDA, now that the government has reopened. Traders will be especially focused on any better purchases of U.S. cotton from China.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a nearly six-month high, which added to the selling pressure in the cotton futures market. If the USDX continues to trend higher in the coming months, which may be likely given the recent more hawkish tone on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, such would continue to be a bearish weight on cotton futures prices.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.