Corn
Price action: May corn fell 5 cents to $4.62, nearer the daily low and for the week down 3 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw some more corrective selling pressure after good gains Wednesday. A firmer U.S. dollar index today and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace also helped to pressure corn today. Still, the near-term technical posture for corn leans bullish, which should at least keep a floor under futures prices next week. Next Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports will be major data points, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for potentially less corn acres this year. A Dow Jones Newswires survey shows traders expect higher stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. planted corn acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 94.481 million acres.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said most of the significant rain expected during the next week will occur in northern Brazil, while many other areas receive at least some rain that will be mostly light and likely quickly lost to evaporation. Recent rain in most Safrinha corn from Paraguay to western Parana should ensure the crop has adequate soil moisture for a while longer, but stress to the crop may rise next week with more significant crop stress possible during the second week of April if rain does not return soon. A timely round of rain is advertised to extend from southern Brazil and Paraguay into most of the remainder of Brazil Apr. 4-8 and Safrinha corn in southern parts of the region should benefit from the moisture before additional and welcome showers occur Apr. 9-10. In Argentina, favorable soil moisture in much of the country today, along with rain during the next two weeks, should ensure favorable conditions for developing crops continue through the period while fieldwork is slowed with southern areas seeing the greatest rain and delays to fieldwork. Much of central and northern Argentina will see little rain through Wednesday and the regular rain expected to begin Thursday will be timely for developing crops.
90-day outlook: The EPA signed a waiver on Wednesday allowing for expanded sales of E15 into the early summer that is likely to be extended further. While the move is positive for ethanol demand, the reaction from markets was muted. Similar waivers have been signed in recent years and year-round E15 by way of legislation remains at a standstill. Further biofuels policy news is expected to be released by the end of the month, according to EPA administrator Lee Zeldin.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 14 1/2 cents to $11.59 1/4, near the daily low and for the week down 2 cents. May soybean meal fell $6.80 to $315.30, near the session low and for the week down $12.70. May bean oil fell 61 points to 67.41 cents, nearer the daily low and for the week up 190 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw technical selling pressure as recent price action has formed a classic bear flag pattern on the daily bar charts for May and July futures. A higher U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today were negative outside markets for the soy complex futures.
USDA reported daily sales of 105,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
Next Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions report and quarterly grain stocks reports are in focus, with spiking fertilizer prices and availability bringing a new twist for corn versus soybean acres this year. A Dow Jones Newswires survey shows traders expect higher stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. planted soybean acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 85.463 million acres.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said soil moisture in some Brazil crop areas (mostly in the south) is low and a boost in precipitation is needed to ensure the best crop development over the next few weeks. Mato Grosso and Goiás crops are rated quite favorably and alternating periods of rain and sunshine will continue to support aggressive crop development. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the south and more rain is expected in that region over the next 10 days, raising some concern. Delays in harvest progress are expected, though most crops will handle the situation well.
90-day outlook: The planned summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in mid-May encouraged soybean complex traders earlier this week. However, bulls were dented today on news that China has announced investigations into unfair U.S. trade practices. The soy complex will remain vulnerable to swings in trader/investor risk appetite on a daily basis, as well as in crude prices over the coming weeks as the war in Iran plays out.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat closed steady at $6.05, near mid-range and for the week were up 9 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat gained 6 cents to $6.32 3/4, near mid-range and for the week up 26 1/2 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 3 1/4 cents to $6.48 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week up 20 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets bulls had a good week, overall. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts were restarted this week, which should continue to support some chart-based buying in the near term.
India’s wheat harvest is expected to rise in 2026 from a year earlier but fall short of initial estimates after unseasonal rains and hailstorms hit the maturing crop, according to trade and industry officials. “We now expect the crop to come in at 113.5-114 MMT, lower than our previous estimate of 115 MMT, but still comfortably above our estimate for last year’s crop of 109.5-110 MMT,” noted Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India.
Next Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions and grain stocks reports are the next major grain-market data points for wheat traders. A Dow Jones Newswires survey shows traders expect higher wheat stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. U.S. all wheat acres are seen by the analysts’ average at 44.605 million acres.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said hot weather in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas Wednesday and Thursday and again during the first half of next week will not bode well for crops already injured by extreme cold in January and mid-March. “A cool and rainy period of weather is needed immediately to support new tillering, but time may soon run out for that. Showers of a limited nature are possible in some areas during early April, though relief will be quite limited. Most of the U.S. Midwest wheat is still rated favorably, despite recent frost and freeze injury,” said the forecaster. Meantime, snow-free conditions are present in Ukraine and Russia’s southern region, where warming this month should set the stage for some early season fieldwork and winter crop development. Other areas to the north are still deeply buried in snow and will see a steady rate of melting into next week, inducing some significant runoff and local flooding. April may trend wetter and will be closely monitored. Wheat conditions in Europe and North Africa are either good or improving and the same is suspected in the Middle East. However, some local flooding in the Middle East this week may have induced a few pockets of damage. China’s winter grain crop should be poised to perform well this spring as long as the crop got planted and established well last autumn after early season flooding. Canada’s Prairies are still dry in the southwest and a notable precipitation event will be needed in April to support a normal start to planting.
90-day outlook: Rising input costs are likely to influence lower wheat plantings in the southern hemisphere, namely Australia. Reduced acres and potentially lower yields resulting from less fertilizer applications would help to ease the bloated supply weighing on global balance sheets. Meantime, production concerns in the Plains are beginning to show in recent price action, with the HRW-SRW spread hitting multi-month highs this week. Condition ratings have continued to decline in the Plains states, and more widespread ratings will be available next month as the growing season Crop Progress reports resume.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 5 points to 69.46 cents, near mid-range after hitting a six-month high early on. For the week, May cotton was up 215 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures saw some mild profit-taking pressure today, but the bulls had a very good week, including restarting a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Some keener risk aversion in the general marketplace today limited buying interest in cotton. However, solid gains in crude oil prices today also limited the downside in cotton. Cotton traders next week will continue to monitor the daily price movements in crude oil, the U.S. stock indexes and the U.S. dollar index.
Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions report is coming more into focus. A Reuters survey of analysts sees an average U.S. planted acreage number at 9.283 million.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation, especially in the mostly warm temperatures expected through at least the next week. Many eastern areas in western Texas as well as southwestern Oklahoma will receive up to 0.50” of rain and locally more Apr. 3-5. Dry weather will also be most common through the next two weeks in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas but there will be two rounds of rain that will temporarily interrupt fieldwork and induce beneficial increases in soil moisture in parts of the region with the Blacklands wettest and south Texas driest.
90-day outlook: An improvement in U.S.-China trade relations could be a positive on the export demand front for U.S. cotton in the coming months. Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in China in mid-May. Xi is expected to visit the U.S. later this year. This week’s export sales report showed China bought 11,200 running bales. Export shipments this week were at a marketing-year high--up 46 percent from the previous week and up 43 percent from the prior 4-week average.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.