Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 7 cents to $4.44 1/2, near the session high after hitting a two-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today as prices overnight closed in on strong near-term technical support and then reversed course to push higher. The corn market is back close to the middle of its well-defined, sideways trading range.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections for the week ended Jan. 1 totaled 1.21 MMT, down 128,115 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of 900,000 MT and 1.4 MMT. The agency also reported export sales for the week of Dec. 25, with U.S. corn sales of 756,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said the driest areas in northeastern Brazil will see additional rain and improvements in crop and soil conditions into Tuesday before a drier weather pattern Wednesday into at least Tuesday of next week causes the soil to quickly dry down again.Regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur elsewhere in Brazil and Paraguay during the next two weeks, keeping soil moisture favorable for crop development while fieldwork is slowed. In Argentina, stress to crops will increase through this weekend in a large part of west-central into southern Argentina, where rain should not be great enough to prevent continued drying of the soil with serious stress to crops likely from central and southern San Luis and southwestern Cordoba to La Pampa where the top and subsoil moisture is already short. Northern and east-central Argentina have mostly favorable soil moisture and with significant rain expected Thursday into Saturday crop and soil conditions will be favorable through the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the Decembers high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.47 and then at $4.50. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at today’s low of $4.36 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans rose 16 1/4 cents to $10.62 and near the daily high. March soybean meal rose $3.90 to $299.90, nearer the daily high. March soybean oil rose 57 points to 49.87 cents, near the daily high and hit a two-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting after soybean and meal futures late last week became technically oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 980,518 MT during the week ended Jan. 1, down 206,918 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.15 MMT. The agency also reported weekly export sales for the week of Dec. 25, with U.S. soybeans totaling 1.18 MMT for the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in southern Argentina is a concern and with limited rain and periodic warm conditions expected over the week some yield potential may decline. Scattered showers from late this week through mid-month will be extremely important in stopping the decline in production potential. Any missed rain will worsen the situation.Brazil crops are rated well and should continue performing favorably because of a good mix of rain and sunshine over the next two weeks. A few drier pockets are unlikely to have a big impact on production potential.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $10.82 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.70 and then at $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at last week’s low of $10.46.
Soybean meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $310.80.
The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $282.10. First resistance comes in at $303.00 and then at $305.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $295.20 and then at $290.00.
Bean oil bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 48.05 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 51.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 49.04 cents and then at the 48.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 6 cents to $5.12 1/2, nearer the daily high. March HRW gained 5 3/4 cents to $5.20 3/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures rose 1/2 cent to $5.71 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived value-buying today as prices hover not far above their contract lows. Gains in corn and soybeans today also supported buying interest in wheat today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat inspections totaled 183,305 during the week ended Jan. 1, down 135,345 MT from the previous and short of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 350,000 MT. The agency also reported weekly export sales for the week of Dec. 25, with U.S. wheat sales of 95,400 MT in the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, one weather disturbance is expected to affect the region in the next seven days, mainly Thursday into early morning Saturday. The system will likely prove to be another disappointment in west-central and southwestern portions of the Plains where not much more than a tease of moisture is anticipated. Enough moisture is possible in the southeast part of the region to improve soil moisture temporarily, but the quick return of dry and warmer biased weather next week will quickly deplete the moisture.Soil temperatures are still quite warm and there is concern that with a little moisture some crop development might occur in Oklahoma and Texas. Any new growth should be limited and there will be a short-term bout of cooler conditions that will offer frost and light freezes late this week and into the weekend to further limit any crop growth of significance. Recent unusually warm conditions may have stressed some livestock, although the impact should have been low. In the Northern Plains, not much precipitation is expected in the next seven days other than maybe some snow in eastern production areas Friday. Temperatures will continue to be unusually warm until potentially the Jan. 15–17 timeframe, when greater cooling occurs.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as SRW prices are trending down on the daily bar charts but HRW has turned sideways and choppy at lower levels. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at $5.25. First support is seen at last week’s contract low of $5.01 1/2 and then at $5.00.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.15 and then at last week’s low of $5.08 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 64 points to 64.65 cents, nearer the daily high and closed at a four-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting. The natural fiber also saw better buying interest amid rallies in the grain and crude oil futures markets, while the U.S. dollar index was a bit weaker.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. cotton export sales of 143,400 running bales for the week of Dec. 25.
The Adjusted World Price (AWP) for cotton moved up to 50.76 cents per pound, effective Jan. 2, up from 50.02 cents the prior week.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California, and that which is expected early this week, will “be welcome and should help improve topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Greater precipitation will be needed to more significantly raise long-term soil moisture but any and all precipitation will be welcome.” Water supply should be improved for the San Joaquin Valley following the recent significant precipitation in the Sierra Nevada. Texas cotton areas all need rain to improve soil moisture and water supply for use in 2026. Rain is expected in the Blacklands, Coastal Bend and a few neighboring areas during the middle to latter part of this week, but relief to the west is not likely to be great enough for a lasting change, if there is any change. Georgia, northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southern South Carolina will continue to see well below normal rainfall over the next ten days.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.97 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.81 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.24 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.68 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.