Corn
Price action: December corn futures rose 4 1/2 cents to $4.34 3/4, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw a good and much-needed rebound following Friday’s solid losses, to keep a price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart and keep the speculative bears at bay. Solid gains in soybean and wheat futures markets today also supported buying interest in corn.
USDA today said it incorrectly included a 100,000 MT sale to Japan on Friday. The agency today also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 2.054 MMT during the week ended Nov. 13, well above the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.825 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said many areas from east-central and southeastern Mato Grosso to central and southern Goias will see little rain through Thursday, while much of the remainder of northern Brazil will receive at least some rain with Bahia wettest. Planting should be aggressive in northern Brazil in anticipation of frequent rain starting Tuesday in some areas and Friday in other areas and continuing through Dec. 1 as soybeans need to be planted soon to ensure Safrinha corn planting delays are not extended. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mostly good mix of rain and sunshine through the next two weeks allowing fieldwork to advance around the precipitation while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, fieldwork will advance well through the next two weeks across Argentina around one round of organized rain Wednesday night into Friday that will disfavor northeastern, west-central, and southwestern areas with rain infrequent and often light Saturday into Dec. 1. Rain Wednesday night into Friday and soil moisture in place should ensure crops develop favorably in most areas. Drying will occur Saturday into Dec. 1, with exceptions likely in some western areas where subsoil moisture is still short and rain later this week will either miss the region or be too light to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.42 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.26 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.37 1/4 and then at $4.40. First support is seen at $4.30 and then at $4.26 1/4.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 32 3/4 cents to $11.57 1/4, nearer the session high and hit a 17-month high. December soybean meal rose $8.30 to $330.80, nearer the daily high and hit a nine-month high. December soybean oil gained 99 points to 51.14 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures today put in very impressive price performances following Friday’s sell offs. Soybean and meal bulls now have the confidence to continue to press their cases to the upside.
NOPA today reported its crush hit a record high in October at 227.647 million bu., up 15.1% from the 197.863 million bu. crushed in September and up 13.9% from Oct. 2024, topping all trade forecasts. It also eclipsed the previous monthly crush record of 206.604 million bu. set in December 2024. Soyoil stocks rose to 1.305 billion pounds as of Oct. 31, up 5.0% from a nine-month low of 1.243 billion pounds at the end of Sept.
President Trump said China would buy U.S. soybeans and other farm products and that Washington and Beijing had talks on the subject last Friday, according to Reuters. Trump said he expected the purchases were already underway and would take place before the spring.
USDA issued a correction to Friday’s daily export sales release. The correct quantity was 132,000 MT of soybeans to China, as the 100,000 MT sale has been canceled. USDA today reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections of 1.176 MMT for the week ended Nov. 13, which was within the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.45 MMT.
Brazil’s soybean plantings reached 71% as of last Thursday, trailing the year-ago pace of 80% due to irregular rainfall, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said a favorable mix of rain and sunshine is expected in Brazil and Argentina among other South American nations during the next two weeks. Portions of center west and northeastern Brazil rainfall will be erratic leaving subsoil moisture low in pockets through mid-week. There is potential for increasing rainfall late this week into next week beginning in the northeastern states and drifting southwest into center west and center south crop areas.
Technical analysis: After scoring a big and bearish “outside day” down on Friday, January soybeans today scored an even bigger and more bullish “outside day” up on the daily chart. The soybean bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.57 1/2 and then at $11.75. First support is seen at $11.40 and then at $11.40.
December soybean meal also scored a bullish outside day up on the daily bar chart. Meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more strength today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at the February high of $334.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $330.80 and then at $334.00. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at today’s low of $319.80.
Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 53.88 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the October high of 51.77 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at 50.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 49.58 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW rose 17 cents to $5.44 1/4, nearer the daily high. December HRW rose 13 1/2 cents to $5.28 3/4, nearer the session high. December spring wheat futures rose 9 cents to $5.73 3/4.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw solid rebounds from Friday’s selling pressure, to give the chart-based bulls confidence to continue to play the long sides in the near term. Good gains in corn and soybean futures markets today also boosted buying interest in wheat futures.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 247,000 MT for the week ended Nov. 13, which was below analysts’ expectations ranging from 250,000 to 400,000 MT.
Russia’s grain exports from its Baltic Sea terminals have increased by 30% this year, with nearly half going to African countries, according to data from the Federal Centre for Agriculture Products Safety Evaluation.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas are experiencing mostly good weather for planting, emergence and establishment. Some greater rain may be needed soon in the western High Plains. Rain is expected to increase during the latter part of this week into the early part of next week. Rain is also expected to reach into the Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin areas late this week into next week, offering better soil moisture for winter crop establishment.
Snow cover in Canada’s Prairies and the far northern U.S. Plains has melted with the return of warmer weather. Precipitation will be limited through early next week and a boost in moisture is needed to improve soil conditions prior to the winter freeze up of the ground. Wheat establishment in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan has improved this autumn. Cooling during the next couple of weeks will begin pushing crops into dormancy. Northern production areas are already experiencing semi-dormancy. Snow will be needed this winter to protect dormant crops from any harsh weather that may evolve.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.55. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.45 3/4 and then at $5.55. First support is seen at $5.30 and then at last week’s low of $5.24 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.33 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s low of $5.13 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton fell 13 points to 62.36 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures today paused after prices dropped to a contract low on Friday. Bulls remain skittish as the near-term technical charts remain fully bearish. Cotton bulls today were disappointed the good rallies in the grain futures markets today did not provide any support to cotton futures.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in California and Arizona during the weekend and that which occurs this week will delay late season farming activity and may discolor any unharvested crop. Other areas in the U.S. will experience good harvest conditions through the first half of this week with little to no rain and mild to warm temperatures. There is potential for rain in a part of the southern Plains, Delta and southeastern states during the latter part of this week and into late November, possibly disrupting late season farming activity.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 61.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 63.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.13 cents and then at 61.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.