Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 3/4 cents to $4.53 3/4, near the session low and hit a 10-month high in the overnight trade.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw profit-taking pressure from recent good gains and lost altitude as the session progressed—following in nearly lock-step fashion the movements of the crude oil market today. The keener risk aversion seen early today in the general marketplace did somewhat improve as the day progressed. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a 3.5-month high today was also a negative for the grain markets.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.52 MMT during the week ended March 5, down 341,413 MT from the previous week.
AgRural reported Brazil’s center-south second corn plantings reached 82% complete as of last Thursday.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, rain has been reduced for southern regions, including southern Paraguay from what was advertised late last week. A drier weather pattern will occur Saturday into Mar. 23, causing soil moisture to quickly decline while stress to crops increases. Rain during the past weekend and rain into Friday will buy crops some time to develop with at least moisture in the ground, but by next week soil moisture is likely to be short in much of the region leaving Safrinha corn vulnerable to production cuts if rain does not increase soon. Central and northern Brazil and central and northern Paraguay will see regular rain during the next two weeks. In Argentina, today’s forecast is wetter for Sunday into Mar. 23 than what was advertised late last week and if the outlook verifies, the driest areas across Argentina will receive enough rain to induce significant improvements and crop and soil conditions and some of the recent declines in yield potentials may be reversed. Before that increase in rain occurs, rain into Saturday will not likely be great enough to prevent net drying and rising crop stress in many areas, but there will be pockets of greater rain in the drier northern and southern areas where crop conditions should improve.
Traders on Tuesday get the monthly USDA supply and demand report, although now major changes are expected to the balance sheet.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, today’s low-range close produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart, to suggest a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.64 3/4. First support is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans lost 4 1/2 cents to $11.96 1/4, nearer the daily low after hitting a two-year high overnight. May soybean meal fell $3.70 to $313.50, near the daily low. May soybean oil lost 48 points to 66.10, nearer the daily low and hit another contract high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures saw price strength overnight amid a spike in crude oil prices to near $120 a barrel. However, crude oil backed well down from its daily high and the soy complex futures followed. A firmer U.S. dollar index that today hit a 3.5-month high was also negative for grain markets.
USDA reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 879,190 MT during the week ended March5, down 282,843 MT from the previous week.
Indonesia may revive a plan to launch a mandatory B50 grade of palm oil-based biodiesel in the middle of this year because of surging crude oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East, according to deputy energy minister Yuliot Tanjung.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 51% of their 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That’s the slowest pace since 2020-21.
World Weather Inc. today said some concern remains over interior southern Brazil and Paraguay dryness. However, most computer forecast models suggest at least partial relief will occur over the next two weeks. As long as that occurs, the outlook for crops in Brazil will remain very good. Southeastern Argentina and Uruguay remain drier than usual and in need of rain, but relief is not very likely in the coming week to ten days. The remainder of Argentina has very good soil moisture except in the far northeast which is a minor production area for grains and oilseeds. The heart of summer crop country in Argentina has nearly ideal field conditions for grain and oilseed crops.
Traders on Tuesday get the monthly USDA supply and demand report, although now major changes are expected to the balance sheet.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. However, price action today produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart, which is one clue that a market top is in place. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at today’s high of $12.33 3/4. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11400. First resistance is seen at $12.15 and then at $12.25. First support is seen at $11.90 and then at $11.80.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $325.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at $318.00 and then at today’s high of $321.30. First support is seen at $312.00 and then at last week’s low of $307.50.
Bean oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, today’s bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart suggests a near-term market top is in place. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 62.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 67.50 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at 64.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 13 1/2 cents to $6.03 1/4, near the daily low after hitting a nine-month high overnight. May HRW lost 3 3/4 cents to $6.19 3/4, near the daily low and hit an 11-month high overnight. May spring wheat futures rose 3 cents to $6.46.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures market saw good buying interest overnight when Nymex crude oil prices spiked to near $120 a barrel. However, when crude prices started losing altitude, wheat futures did the same. A firmer U.S. dollar index that hit a 3.5-month high today was also a negative outside-market development for wheat.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 496,108 MT during the week ended March 5, up 141,590 MT from the previous week.
Ukraine’s spring sowing campaign will start with a two-week delay due to frozen soil and remaining snow, according to the Ukrainian economy ministry earlier today.
Traders on Tuesday get the monthly USDA supply and demand report, although now major changes are expected to the balance sheet.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, precipitation in the next two weeks will be very limited, raising concern over dryness as the winter wheat crop further greens and begins more aggressive development with the expected unusual warmth. One of the few opportunities for any meaningful rainfall will be Tuesday and will mainly involve a narrow band in Kansas and rain near the southeastern fringes of the region in Oklahoma. Northwest flow aloft is a concern in the second week of the outlook and this is typically a drier weather pattern for the region, especially at this time of year. In the Northern Plains, frequent precipitation, mostly in the form of snow, is expected in the next seven days. The snow will be important for providing some more moisture to be useful in the upcoming growing season. Temperatures will also be trending below average.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. However, today’s bearish buying exhaustion tails on the daily bar charts are clues that near-term market tops are in place. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.80. First resistance is seen at $6.18 1/2 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at today’s high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at 6.30 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at $6.15 and then at $6.00.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 42 points to 64.62 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw some short covering but gains were limited by a sell off in the grains. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a 3.5-month high today also limited the upside in cotton. Still, the cotton bulls can argue prices performed pretty well today given the keener risk aversion, weaker grains and the stronger greenback.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. Some showers are possible over the next couple of weeks, but a general soaking seems a little unlikely. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected for a while. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Recent rain in the southeastern U.S. has improved soil moisture for better planting potentials later this spring. Subsoil moisture is still low from Florida and southeastern Alabama into a part of the Carolinas, though the situation is not critical. This region will get some timely rain in the next couple of weeks; although drought status will remain.
Cotton traders are awaiting Tuesday’s monthly USDA supply and demand report, although they don’t expect any significant changes to the balance sheet.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 65.02 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.08 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.62 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.