P&K Today | Potash at Parity

Posted on 03/09/2018 9:08 AM


  • DAP $15.55 above year-ago pricing -- higher 4 cents/st on the week to $472.16/st.phosphate
  • MAP $50.39 above year-ago -- higher 56 cents/st this week to $507.26/st.
  • Potash $14.00 above year-ago -- lower $1.24/st this week to $341.72/st.

MAP prices led gains in the P&K segment with Illinois posting a $21.64 price gain. No other state, however, posted a higher price this week. Six states were unchanged as Kansas fell $5.59, South Dakota dropped $4.27 and Nebraska fell $3.49 per short ton.

DAP was higher as well, led by Missouri, up 26 cents and Iowa gaining 18 cents. No other state posted a price change in DAP on the week.

Potash prices fell regionally with Minnesota falling $18.50 and Illinois off 7 cents per short ton. Five states were unchanged as South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas each gained a little more than a dollar per short ton.

This week, potash is very near parity with NH3 on an indexed basis. The chart at right shows thepotash and nh3 relationship between the two since June 2013. The chart begins with potash and anhydrous in a lock-step downtrend. From there, potash leveled off as NH3 tested first lows, then highs. The result was a straight-line, sideways path in which MH3 and potash spent nearly a full year at parity.

If we apply what happened between June 2013 and July 2015 to this week's setup, that would have anhydrous ammonia firming to around $550 regionally as potash tracks sideways. Once spring demand has left the market, if the markets perform as they did in 2013-'15, anhydrous would fall back to the level where the two arrived at parity. While technical analysis does not always pan out as we expect, it is interesting to note the pattern, and the fundamentals in the market do support higher near-term NH3 prices and flat potash pricing through the demand-intense spring period.

Of course, we will know if the analysis is correct on the back end, later this summer, but this is a technical setup similar to what we have seen before. The end result would be anhydrous sinking this summer to a price point around $500 per short ton.

Meanwhile phosphates remain overpriced with MAP at a sharp premium to DAP, which we believe signals pending price strength for DAP.

You should be 100% filled on spring/summer fertilizers, including P&K.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended March 2, 2018.

DAP is priced at 49 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 47 3/4 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 28 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 3/8/2018

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
$0.49 1/4
$0.47 3/4
$0.28 3/4
$0.47 1/2
$0.42 1/2
$0.27 3/4

pandk indices


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