U.S. corn and soybean yields are expected to come in slightly below USDA trendlines when the department releases its first survey-based crop estimates on Wednesday.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, look for USDA to report a corn yield of 182.4 bushels per acre, down from the trendline 183-bushel estimate the government plugged into its July report and well below the record 186.5 bushels seen last year. The soybean yield is seen at 52.9 bushels an acre, just a shade below the trendline 53 bushels used by USDA last month and matching last year’s figure.
Analysts peg corn production at 15.934 billion bushels versus USDA’s July estimate of 16 billion, down from last year’s 17.021 billion bushels. Analysts don’t expect USDA to repeat last year’s surprise jump in acreage, pegging harvested acres, on average, at 87.359 million, Reuters found, little changed from USDA’s June 30 estimate of 87.434 million and down from last year’s 91.258 million.
Soybean production is seen at 4.472 billion bushels, down a shade from the 4.475 billion bushels USDA penciled in last month and up from the 4.262 billion bushels produced last year. Analysts, on average, see harvested soybean acres at 84.564 million versus USDA’s earlier estimate of 84.401 million and up from last year’s 80.437 million.
Barring a major surprise on acres, yield will be the key driver in Wednesday’s report.
The agency will update both planted and harvested acres, utilizing FSA certified acres. The August report uses farmer surveys conducted by USDA the last week of July and first week of August to gather yield expectations as of Aug. 1. Farmers were asked to find two sample plots, collect data, and report to USDA, which compares the data with previous years to develop a projected yield. The August report also takes into consideration weather patterns, crop progress and NDVI data, a satellite-based measure of crop health.
USDA, however, won’t begin taking physical, field-based objective yield measurements for corn and soybeans until the September report.
StoneX garnered a lot of attention with its customer-based survey last year that pegged the corn crop at 188 bushels per acre. That was still below USDA’s estimate at 188.8 bushels per acre in the August Crop Production Report. This year, StoneX estimates the crop at 184.8 bushels per acre, bringing production to 16.16 billion bushels. StoneX estimates the soybean yield at 53.0 bushels per acre, marking production at 4.47 billion bushels. It uses USDA harvested and planted acres in its estimates. While still above trend, the corn crop is seen as coming in below last year.
Arlan Suderman, StoneX’s chief commodities economist, told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan: “This year’s crop isn’t as good as last year’s, and I would agree with that. Particularly our fringe areas, the Plains in the South aren’t so good, so they aren’t helping elevate the Midwest.”
S&P Global Energy released its updated production estimate last week, pegging corn yield at 182 bushels per acre but maintaining a higher planted acreage estimate than USDA at 95.7 million acres, marking production at 15.912 billion bushels, crop division head Mindy McMurty told AgriTalk. The firm utilizes surveys and satellite data to help determine both its yield estimate and its acreage estimate. S&P estimates the soybean crop at 53.2 bushels per acre, modestly above trend but in line with most private estimates. It also holds a slightly higher soybean planted acreage estimate at 85.6 million acres.
On Monday, DTN released the results of its “digital yield tour,” which pegged the national average corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre as of Aug. 1 and the average soybean yield at 52.1 bushels per acre.
Octopusbot, an Australia-based company that provides Pro Farmer with high-frequency weather and satellite data from around the world, now pegs the U.S. corn yield at 184.6 bushels per acre for production of 16.17 billion bushels, while soybeans are seen at 54.2 bushels per acre, for a crop of 4.58 billion bushels. Octopusbot utilizes a variety of weather data including traditional variables like temperature and rainfall, but also factors in other advanced information like solar radiation, wind speeds, and even snow depth for winter crops. Additional information from satellite data, such as NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), is also taken into consideration. The data is input into a regression model that works to predict yields based on a multitude of variables and a machine learning algorithm.
At Pro Farmer, our annual Crop Tour, which kicks off this year on Aug. 17, is the primary driver of our annual yield estimates. Ahead of the August report, however, we’ve noted that our Crop Condition Index has tracked impressively well with the agency’s August yield projections. Last year, the model pegged a yield near 188 as well. With the Aug. 1 CCI rating 24 points below last year at that time, the model pegs the corn yield from 182.3 to 184.5 bushels per acre, or in line with trend yields. The soybean model estimates between 52.9 and 53.9 bushels per acre, also in line with trend.
Next week’s Crop Tour will see scouts pull over 3,000 samples of corn and soybeans in a trek across the Corn Belt before the eastern and western legs meet in Rochester, Minnesota. That will give the first widespread, objective look into what kind of potential the corn and soybean crops hold. The keys this year are how well crops in the west have held up to heat and drought and how crops handled the early heavy precipitation in the eastern half of the Corn Belt.