Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a steady to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 4 to 6 cents higher, winter wheat was 17 to 19 cents higher, spring wheat was around 15 cents higher and cotton was about 45 points lower.
As of 12:20 p.m. CT, corn is trading 5 to 7 cents higher, soybeans are 12 to 16 to cents higher, winter wheat markets are 35 to 45 cents higher, spring wheat is 37 cents higher and cotton is 30 to 100 points lower.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.561 billion bu.; trade expected 1.747 billion bu.— compares with 1.985 billion bu. in 2025
All winter wheat: 1.048 billion bu.; trade expected 1.212 billion bu.— compares with 1.402 billion bu. in 2025
HRW: 515 million bu.; trade expected 638 million bu.— compares with 804 million bu. in 2025
SRW: 301 million bu.; trade expected 337 million bu.— compares with 353 million bu. in 2025
White winter: 232 million bu.; trade expected 234 million bu.— compares with 244 million bu. in 2025
USDA’s initial winter wheat crop estimate plunged 354 million bu. from last year and came 164 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate. The winter wheat yield is estimated at 47.6 bu. per acre, down 7.3 bu. from last year. Harvested acreage is estimated at 22.015 million acres, down 3.493 million acres from last year.
Estimated production for all three winter wheat categories came in lower than expected. The HRW is expected to fall 289 million bu. from last year and 123 million bu. Less than analysts expected. The SRW crop is estimated to fall 52 million bu. from year-ago and 36 million bu. from pre-report expectations. White winter wheat production is estimated down 12 million bu. from last year and 2 million bu. Less than anticipated.
The all-wheat crop projection implies spring wheat production of 513 million bu. between other spring wheat and durum.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.142 billion bu. for 2025-26, up from 2.127 billion bu. in April— projection of 1.957 billion bu. for 2026-27
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 350 million bu. in April— projection of 310 million bu. for 2026-27
Wheat: 935 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 938 million bu. in April— projection of 762 million bu. for 2026-27
Cotton: 4.4 million bales for 2025-26, unchanged from April— projection of 3.9 million bales for 2026-27
USDA added 15 million bu. to 2025-26 corn carryover from last month. The estimate is also 11 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA left feed and residual use unchanged at 6.2 million bu. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, steady from the previous month.
For 2026-27, USDA projects corn carryover of 1.957 billion bu. – that is 24 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies for 2026-27 are projected at 18.162 billion bu., down 435 million bu. from last year. New-crop corn production is projected at 15.995 billion bu. on planted acres of 95.3 million, harvested acres of 87.4 million and a national average corn yield of 183 bu. per acre. On the demand side, USDA puts feed & residual use at 6.1 billion bu. (down 100 million bu. from this year), food, seed & industrial use at 5.6 billion, unchanged from the previous year (corn-for-ethanol use is 5.6 billion bu., also unchanged), and exports are projected at 3.15 billion bu. (down 150 million bu. from the previous year). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.40, up 25 cents from this year.
USDA cut 10 million bu. from 2025-26 soybean carryover from last month. The estimate is also 5 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes on the supply side of the balance sheet. USDA raised old-crop bean crush to 2.63 billion bushels from 2.61 billion and trimmed exports 10 million bu. to 1.53 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2025-26 at $10.40, up a dime from last month.
On new-crop beans, USDA projects carryover of 310 million bu., down 30 million bu. from this year and 34 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. New-crop soybean total supplies are projected at 4.8 billion bu., up 188 million bu. from this year. The crop is projected at 4.435 billion bu. on planted acres of 84.7 million, harvested acres of 83.7 million and a national average soybean yield of 53 bu. per acre. On the demand side, USDA projects soybean crush of 2.75 billion bu. (up 120 million bu. from this year), exports of 1.63 billion bu. (up 100 million bu. from this year) and total use is projected at 4.49 billion bu., up 218 million bu. from this year. USDA projected a national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2026-27 at $11.40, up $1 from this year.
USDA trimmed 3 million bu. from its old-crop wheat carryover estimate to 935 million bushels. That estimate is 3 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are unchanged at 2.964 billion bushels. Total use is up 3 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $5, unchanged from last month.
New-crop wheat carryover is projected at 762 million bu., down 173 million bu. from this year and 83 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total new-crop supplies at 2.636 billion bu., down 328 million bu. from year-ago on a crop projection of 1.561 billion bu., down 424million bu. from 2025-26. That crop projection is based on planted acres of 43.8 million, harvest acres of 32.9 million and a national average wheat yield of 47.5 bu. per acre. Total demand is projected at 1.874 billion bu. down 156 million bu. from 2025-26. USDA puts food use at 960 million bu. (unchanged from this year), seed at 59 million bu. (down 1 million from this year), feed & residual at 80 million bu. (down 20 million from this year) and exports at 775 million bushels. (down 135 million from this year). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $6.50, up $1.50 from this year.
USDA left old-crop cotton carryover unchanged from April. Total old-crop supplies were unchanged at 17.9 million bales. Old-crop use at 13.6 million bales is unchanged. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 at 63 cents, up two cents from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover of 3.9 million bales is down 500,000 bales from this year. Total supplies are projected at 17.71 million bales, down 190,000 bales from the current marketing year. The crop is projected at 13.3 million bales, down 600,000 bales from last year. Planted acres are put at 9.64 million with harvested acres at 7.38 million and a national average cotton yield of 866 lbs. per acre. Total new-crop cotton use is projected at 13.9 million bales, up 300,000 bales from this year. Domestic use is projected at 1.6 million bales, unchanged from this year. Exports are projected at 12.3 million bales, up 300,000 bales from this year. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 73 cents, up a dime from this year.
Global carryover
Corn: 296.95 MMT for 2025-26, up from 294.8 MMT in April— projection of 277.54 MMT for 2026-27
Beans: 125.13 MMT for 2025-26, up from 124.8 MMT in April— projection of 124.78 MMT for 2026-27
Wheat: 279.21 MMT for 2025-26, down from 283.1 MMT in April— projection of 275.04 MMT for 2026-27
Cotton: 77.27 million bales for 2024-25, up from 77.04 million bales in April— projection of 71.84 million bales for 2026-27
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.0 MMT in April— projection of 50.0 MMT for 2026-27
Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.0 MMT in April— projection of 186.0 MMT for 2026-27
Argentina wheat: 27.92 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.92 MMT in April— projection of 21.0 MMT for 2026-27
Australia wheat: 36.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.00 MMT in April— projection of 30.0 MMT for 2026-27
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.07 MMT in April— projection of 141.0 MMT for 2026-27
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in April— projection of 35.0 MMT for 2026-27
EU wheat: 145.11 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 145.11 MMT in April— projection of 136.0 MMT for 2026-27
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in April— projection of 86.0 MMT for 2026-27
Ukraine wheat: 24.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 24.0 MMT in April— projection of 23.0 MMT for 2026-27
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 301.24 MMT in April— projection of 307.0 MMT for 2026-27
Argentina corn: 59.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 52.0 MMT in April— projection of 55.0 MMT for 2026-27
Brazil corn: 135.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 132.0 MMT in April— projection of 139.0 MMT for 2026-27
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.7 MMT in April— projection of 30.0 MMT for 2026-27
South Africa corn: 17.7 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 17.3 MMT in April— projection of 16.5 MMT for 2026-27
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.8 mil. bales in April— projection of 33.5 million bales for 2026-27