Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher.
Prospective Plantings Report
Corn: 95.338 mil. acres; trade expected 94.466 mil. acres— compares to 98.788 mil. acres in 2025
Soybeans: 84.7 mil. acres; traders expected 85.487 mil. acres— compares to 81.215 mil. acres in 2025
All wheat: 43.775 mil. acres; traders expected 44.680 mil. acres— compares to 45.328 mil. acres in 2025
Other spring wheat: 9.415 mil. acres; traders expected 9.752 mil. acres— compares to 9.990 mil. acres in 2025
Durum: 1.95 mil. acres; traders expected 2.049 mil. acres— compares to 2.185 mil. acres in 2025
Cotton: 9.64 mil. acres; traders expected 9.191 mil. acres— compares to 9.283 mil. acres in 2025
Corn acres came above the average trade estimate but within the range of expectations. USDA came in below our acreage forecast. Soybeans were above our survey estimate but below the trade average forecast. Corn acres are likely to end up lower than prospective plantings indicated as input costs are prohibitive with the ongoing conflict in Iran given the timing of survey data collection.
Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3.5 percent or 3.45 million acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating States. Acres are down in five of the seven top producing states. Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to decrease 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.9 million acres), 450,000 acres in Iowa (to 13.1 million acres), 300,000 acres in Minnesota (to 8.6 million acres), 450,000 acres in Nebraska (to 10.3 million acres), and 550,000 acres in South Dakota (to 6.3 million acres). Acres are expected to remain steady in Indiana (at 5.4 million acres) and Ohio (3.4 million acres).
USDA estimates soybean acres will rise to 84.7 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimated states. Compared with year ago, soybean acres acre expected to rise 510,000 acres in Arkansas (to 3.1 million acres), 200,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.5 million acres), 50,000 acres in Indiana (to 5.5 million acres), 450,000 acres in Iowa (to 9.9 million acres), 300,000 acres in Kansas (to 4.4 million acres), 150,000 acres in Minnesota (to 7.3 million acres), 350,000 acres in Nebraska (to 5.2 million acres), 150,000 acres in North Dakota (to 6.7 million acres), 500,000 acres in South Dakota (to 5.6 million acres) and 370,000 acres in Wisconsin (to 2.4 million acres). Acres are expected to fall 30,000 acres in Michigan (to 2.05 million acres), 100,000 acres in Missouri (to 5.5 million acres) and 100,000 acres in Ohio (to 4.8 million acres).
All wheat planted area for 2025 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3 percent from 2025. If realized, this represents the second lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2026 winter wheat planted area, at 32.4 million acres, is down 2 percent from last year. Area expected to be planted to other spring wheat for 2026 is estimated at 9.415 million acres, down 6 percent from 2025 estimate. Durum planted area for 2026 is expected to total 1.95 million acres, down 11 percent from the previous year.
All cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 9.51 million acres, up 4 percent from 2025. American Pima area is estimated at 130,000 acres, down 8 percent from 2025. Acres in Texas are expected to rise 199,000 acres to 5.52 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 9.024 billion bu.; traders expected 9.112 billion bu.— compares to 13.305 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 8.147 bil. bu. on March 1, 2025
Soybeans: 2.104 billion bu.; traders expected 2.086 billion bu.— compares to 3.290 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.910 bil. bu. on March 1, 2025
Wheat: 1.300 billion bu.; traders expected 1.305 billion bu.— compares to 1.675 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.237 bil. bu. on March 1, 2025
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.024 billion bu., coming in 88 million bushels lower than industry expectations. Stocks are up 9.7% from March 1 from a year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 5.4 billion bu. were reported, up 17.2% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 60.1% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 3.592 billion bu., down 1.5% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 39.9% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of corn in the second quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 4.281 billion bu., up 8.4% from the same quarter last year.
Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.104 billion bu., just 18 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and up 9.2% from March 1 of year-ago. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 900 million bu. are up 2.6% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 42.7% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.204 billion bu., 14.4% above year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 57.3% of total stocks. Implied disappearance of soybeans in the second quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 1.182 billion bu., down less than 1% from year-ago.
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.300 billion bu., 5 million bu. below trade expectations. Stocks are 4.9% above March 1 of last year. Of the total, on-farm stocks of 298.5 million bu. are down 2.9% from year-ago. On-farm stocks were 23.0% of total stocks. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.001 billion bu., up 7.2% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks were 77.0% of total stocks. All wheat implied usage in the third quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 374 million bu., up 10.4% from the same quarter last year.