Farm-State Lawmakers, USDA Sec. Vilsack Have Blind Spot: Ag Research Funding

Trump in court | California’s snowpack one of largest on record | Judge dismisses Kentucky’s challenge to Biden’s WOTUS rule
 

Former President Donald Trump returned to New York from his Florida estate Monday for his booking and arraignment this afternoon. Judge Juan Merchan ruled Monday night there will be no cameras, cell phones or even laptops allowed in the arraignment. Five pool photographers will be brought in briefly before the proceedings begin and then hustled out. A video camera will be allowed outside the courtroom. Trump is expected to plead not guilty and then fly back to Florida. His political campaign on Monday announced the hiring of an experienced white-collar defense attorney to boost his legal team for the case.

An oil-production cut by Saudi Arabia and its allies demonstrated how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is willing to set aside U.S. concerns to pursue a nationalist energy policy aimed at funding an expensive makeover of his kingdom.

Insiders at collapsed Signature Bank sold more than $100 million in shares during their crypto-driven surge, according to a WSJ analysis (link).

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told shareholders that the recent banking turmoil “involves far fewer financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved” than the 2008 crisis. (See more on this in Markets section.)

A U.S. federal judge in Alaska denied a bid by environmentalists and an indigenous group to block ConocoPhillips from opening a gravel mine and conducting other work at its $8 billion Willow oil project. The order allows ConocoPhillips to continue initial operations during the narrow winter construction season in the Arctic.

USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack should be asked about this development: In the past, half of USDA’s budget was directed to agricultural research and development. Today the share is 1.8%. Brazil, China and India are now spending considerably more than the U.S. on research and development. More in Policy section.

Chicago mayoral election today. Two Democrats — Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson — advanced to a runoff after February’s election, pushing out incumbent Lori Lightfoot.

Vallas is a former chief executive of Chicago Public Schools. Johnson is a Cook County commissioner. The runoff is expected to be tight. The candidates offer sharply different strategies on crime, which is voters’ main concern in the nation’s third-largest city.

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. opened slightly lower, went slightly higher and then went back to slightly lower. In Asia, Japan +0.4%. Hong Kong -0.7%. China -0.3%. India closed. In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris +0.6%. Frankfurt +0.9%.

     U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow ended up 327.90 points, 0.98%, at 33,601.15. The Nasdaq declined 32.45 points, 0.27%, at 12,189.45. The S&P 500 gained 15.20 points, 0.37%, at 4,124.51.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: May corn fell 2 3/4 cents to $6.57 3/4, near the session low after posting the highest intraday level since Feb. 23.  
• Soy complex: May soybeans rose 16 1/2 cents to $15.22, near mid-range. Prices hit a three-week high early on. May soybean meal fell $1.80 at $464.20 and near mid-range. May bean oil closed up 119 points at 56.68 cents and near mid-range.  
• Wheat: May SRW futures rose 1 1/4 to $6.93 1/2, though near the session low. May HRW futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $8.75 1/4 after trading as high as $9.02. Spring wheat futures fell 4 cents, settling at 8.91 3/4, near the session low.
• Cotton: May cotton fell 40 points to 82.38 cents, ending the session just above the 40-day moving average of 82.22 cents.  
• Cattle: June live cattle fell 90 cents to $161.225. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a contract high early on. May feeder cattle dropped $2.10 at $203.15 and nearer the session low.
• Hogs: Nearby April lean hog futures ended Monday 72 cents lower at $74.525, while most-active June futures slipped 20 cents to $91.425.
   

Ag markets today: Wheat futures were supported overnight by the bigger-than-expected decline in crop condition ratings, while corn and soybeans faced selling pressure. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 3 to 6 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 8 cents lower, SRW wheat futures were 2 to 3 cents higher, HRW wheat was 3 to 6 cents higher and HRS wheat was 7 to 9 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures were around 75 cents higher, and the U.S. dollar index was modestly lower but well off its overnight lows.  

Market quotes of note:

     • Treasury Secretary Yellen on Monday “said the surprise OPEC+ oil production cut announced Sunday was an ‘unconstructive act,’ which could hurt U.S. efforts to lower inflation.”

     •  The U.S. economy is healthy — and is going to remain healthy for decades to come. So says JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon in his annual shareholder letter, released this morning. "Businesses are pretty healthy and credit losses are extremely low," says Dimon, the CEO of America's largest bank. Link to letter.
        Dimon’s take on the latest banking crisis: The JPMorgan Chase boss warned that the turmoil “is not yet over,” and opined on what caused the crash. He also weighed in why more regulation isn’t necessarily the cure, and why it will have “repercussions” for years. “Most of the risks were hiding in plain sight,” Dimon said of the troubles that brought down Silicon Valley Bank. Chief among them: SVB’s corporate clients “were controlled by a small number of venture capital companies and moved their deposits in lockstep.” Dimon rejected suggestions that Trump-era rollbacks of smaller bank regulation were to blame for the crisis and cautioned against “politically motivated responses.”

     • “The planet's billionaires offer a window into what's going on in the most important industries in the world,” says Forbes Senior Wealth Editor Chase Peterson-Withorn. “Tracking who's up, who's down and who has dropped out of the ranks can tell us a lot about which parts of the economy are stagnating, which are growing and which are rife with fraudsters or wild speculation. And, even more than that, billionaires have tremendous power, and it's key to identify who they are and how much financial might they wield.” (Link for details.)

     • Regarding OPEC+ oil production cut: "It is hard not to think that there is some geopolitical posturing embedded in these voluntary cuts. It demonstrates the group’s support for Russia and flies in the face of the Biden administration’s efforts to lower oil prices," wrote Caroline Bain, a commodities analyst with Capital Economics, after the announcement.

        "From a demand-side perspective, these cuts may be signaling that OPEC+ believes that there are enough recessionary indicators in the market," wrote analysts with Rystad Energy, a research and consulting firm.
        "The move to reduce supply is fairly odd," wrote Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING in a note Monday. "Oil prices have partly recovered from the turmoil seen in financial markets following developments in the banking sector," he wrote. "Meanwhile, oil fundamentals are expected to tighten as we move through the year. Prior to these cuts, we were already expecting the oil market to see a fairly sizable deficit over the second half or 2023. Clearly, this will be even larger now."
       

On tap today:

     • Labor Department releases job openings, layoff and turnover figures for February. (10:00 a.m. ET)
     • Commerce Department releases its full February report for shipments, inventories and orders for manufacturers. The earlier, advanced, report said new orders for durable goods declined 1% in February. (10:00 a.m. ET)
     • President Biden is scheduled to meet at 2:45 p.m. ET with his Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

Yellen: Banks ‘stabilizing’ after failures. U.S. banks are “stabilizing” though regulators stand ready to repeat the extraordinary actions taken in March to contain depositor runs, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. “My read is the outflows from smaller and medium-sized banks are diminishing and matters are stabilizing, but it’s a situation we’re watching very closely,” Yellen told reporters in New Haven, Conn., on Monday. She was speaking days after a Federal Reserve report showed deposits at small banks increased in the latest weekly data.

Dallas Fed reports weakest demand for loans since Covid crisis. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that demand for bank loans in its district slumped to the weakest since the spring 2020 Covid crisis, a potential harbinger of a broader tightening of credit in the wake of interest-rate hikes and turmoil in the banking sector.

Eurozone producer inflation slows to 1-1/2-year low. The producer price inflation in the Euro Area eased further to 13.2% in February from a revised 15.1% in January and slightly below expectations of 13.3%. It was the lowest rate since July 2021, as costs rose at a softer pace for energy, intermediate and both durable and non-durable consumer goods. On a monthly basis, producer prices declined by 0.5%, more than forecasts of a 0.3% decrease.

     Upshot: Despite the still elevated annual figure, the lower than expected print is bolstering risk assets this morning.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate steady at 3.6% during its April meeting, as expected, marking the first pause in the central bank’s hiking cycle since it started raising rates in May 2022. The decision came amid efforts to account for policy lags, with the board adding that it stands ready to resume raising borrowing costs should the economy need it. “The decision to hold interest rates steady this month provides the board with more time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook, in an environment of considerable uncertainty,” Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement. He added that growth in the economy has slowed, with expansion over the next couple of years expected to be below trend. The committee will be paying close attention to local and overseas economic data ahead of its next meeting just before the May budget. The RBA also kept unchanged the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 3.5%.

The $1,000 auto loan payment is becoming more common. Higher costs have been a key factor behind rising distress in the auto market.

Lithium prices are down, cheaper EVs could follow. Lithium prices are reversing after a two-year tear, a potential boost for consumers and auto makers that got hit by rising battery costs last year, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Prices for lithium are down more than 30% this year, ending the two-year run that pushed up the value of the key battery material by a factor of 12, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The falling prices are due to slowing demand for electric vehicles, particularly in China, and volatile markets that are making traders cautious. Prices for other metals that go into batteries, such as cobalt and nickel, are also sliding. But auto makers are still worried about securing enough long-term supply. General Motors Co. recently invested $650 million into startup Lithium Americas Corp. for the right to obtain material from a planned mine in Nevada.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was slightly weaker with only the euro weaker against the U.S. currency. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was firmer, trading around 3.46%, while there was a narrowly mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures moved higher, with U.S. crude around $81.15 per barrel and Brent around $85.60 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were narrowly mixed, with gold weaker under $1,999 per troy ounce and silver firmer, trading above $24.06 per troy ounce.      

     • Euro hits two-month high. The euro bounced back above $1.09 at the start of April, hovering around its strongest level in two months and following a 1.6% gain last month, amid expectations the European Central Bank will keep raising interest rates in the coming months to combat inflation. ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said another 50bp hike was “still on the cards” if the recent banking turmoil did not worsen.

     • Carloads of motor vehicles and auto parts on U.S. railroads were up nearly 10% in the first 12 weeks of the year, according to the Association of American Railroads. Still, Wards Intelligence says dealership stocks remain below historic norms even after the recent gains. After the industry’s worst annual performance in more than a decade last year, many car companies reported higher U.S. sales in the first quarter, with GM and Hyundai among those posting double-digit gains. Inventory levels, constrained in recent years by supply-chain snarls, are rising — helping dealers satisfy pent-up demand. J.D. Power estimates that industrywide U.S. auto sales hit 3.5 million in the first quarter, up 6% from a year earlier.

     • Orange juice imports surge. U.S. imports of orange juice could be the largest in at least 50 years, topping 550 million gallons this season, with Mexico and Brazil supplying the lion's share. Link for details.

     • Ag trade: Japan is seeking 78,732 MT of milling wheat in its weekly tender.

     • A survey this week found California’s snowpack is one of the largest on record. The snowpack is three or more times greater than normal in some areas of the Sierra Nevada. The size of California’s snowpack this month will inform how the state manages its water supply over the next year. But despite a wet winter, states — including California — will have to make unprecedented cuts to their Colorado River water usage.

     • NWS weather outlook: There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Midwest on Tuesday... ...Blizzard conditions over the northern Plains on north side of strong surface low... ...Very warm across the East and winter-like cold across the West and the Dakotas.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Wheat firmer, corn and beans weaker overnight
     • HRW CCI rating plunges from last fall, SRW rating improves
     • Consultant leaves South American crop estimates unchanged
     • India plans to relax wheat procurement regs
     • Cattle futures pause
     • Traders maintain pessimistic attitude toward hogs

— The U.S. will send Ukraine about $500 million in ammunition and equipment and will spend more than $2 billion to buy an array of munitions, radar and other weapons in the future. 

— Ukraine farms attract money and help from allies, top food companies. The actions mark an early push by Kyiv’s allies to rebuild the country even as the war with Russia shows little sign of ending soon. Link to more via the Wall Street Journal.

— Dreyfus ends Russia exports.  As a result of increasing "grain export challenges," Louis Dreyfus Co. will cease exports of Russian grain on July 1, joining competitors Cargill and Viterra, which announced similar measures last week. Link for details.

 

— Declining funds imperil the 'slow magic' of agri-food research. In the past, half of USDA’s budget was directed to agricultural research and development. Today the share is 1.8% and the U.S. now trails competitors that include China, Brazil and India, said economist Philip Pardey of the University of Minnesota in calling for a hefty increase in funding (link). 

— ERP Phase 2 payments continue to edge up. Payments under USDA’s Emergency Relief Program (ERP) Phase 1 were little changed for the week ending April 2, with ERP Phase 2 payouts at $47,302 to 24 recipients, up from $17,302 the prior week. Payments under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) efforts were also little changed from the prior week.

— Judge dismisses Kentucky’s challenge to Biden’s WOTUS rule. A federal judge tossed out Kentucky’s challenge to the EPA’s new waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule. The lawsuit is one of at least five challenging the 2023 WOTUS rule. A ruling from the Supreme Court in Sackett v. EPA is also expected later this year.

— The Chinese balloon that flew over U.S. airspace in January gathered intelligence about military bases. According to NBC (link), the balloon was able to transmit data to China in real time. A spokesperson for the Pentagon did not confirm that claim, but said that the balloon would have provided “limited additive value” to China.

— China warned U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) not to "repeat disastrous past mistakes" by meeting Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen this week, saying it would not help regional peace and stability and only unite China's people against a common enemy. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

     The upcoming meeting comes during what Taipei describes as her “transit” through the U.S. from a visit to Central America. Tsai leaves office next year after serving two terms, having “developed the closest relations with the United States that Taiwan has had since it became a full democracy,” the New York Times noted.

— Lawmakers call for hearings amid growing concerns of surveillance or sabotage at U.S. ports. House Committee on Homeland Security Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) said in a statement that the panel aims to hold hearings and obtain access to classified and unclassified government documents on the matter. It is “extremely worrisome” that about 80% of American port cranes use Chinese software that is manufactured by state-owned Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries, or ZPMC, in China and are used in most American ports. Link to details via the Wall Street Journal.

— U.S. says tough China moves needed to counter ‘national champions.’ The Biden administration is pushing back against Chinese assertions that the US is containing the rise of the world’s second-biggest economy, with a senior diplomat saying more assertive economic measures were necessary to produce “a level playing field.” Link to more via Bloomberg.

— Lawmakers push bans on Chinese purchases of American farms. Political furor signals rising distrust, deteriorating relations. Link to more via the Washington Post.

— U.S. Commerce rules on removing antidumping duties on Argentine, Indonesian biodiesel. The Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration (ITA) determined via a sunset review that revoking antidumping (AD) duties in biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia would “likely lead to continuation or recurrence of dumping” of those products on the U.S. market. ITA said in a notice (link) published today (April 4) in the Federal Register that if the AD orders were removed the “magnitude of the dumping margins likely to prevail would be weighted-average margins of up to 86.23% for Argentina and up to 276.65% for Indonesia.” This keeps the duties in place.

— President Joe Biden downplayed the impact of a surprise OPEC+ announcement that it would slash oil production by more than 1 million barrels per day. “It’s not going to be as bad as you think,” Biden said Monday during a trip to Minnesota, where he was asked about the decision. Administration officials in Washington have sought to strike a balance between denouncing the move and not further souring relations with Saudi Arabia.

     National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. had been given a “heads up” about the announcement. He said the U.S. does not believe “production cuts are advisable at this moment given the market uncertainty.”

— DeWine signals potential delay on fuel shift to boost ethanol. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) said he may push the Biden administration to further delay a fuel policy shift to encourage greater sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline if by April 2024 “it appears that Ohio consumers may be negatively affected by constrained supply or higher costs.”

— Federal judge rules Alaska Willow project can continue. The ConocoPhillips Willow project in the Alaskan Arctic was given approval Monday after a federal judge rejected a push by environmentalists against the project proceeding. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason ruled an injunction was in appropriate as the groups bringing the suit would not be irreparably harmed by the construction which is scheduled to start this month. The Biden administration approved the project March 13, angering environmentalists who had long fought the project.\

     Background: ConocoPhillips will construct three drill pads, 25.8 mils of gravel roads, an airstrip and hundreds of miles of ice roads. The project could produce up to 180,000 barrels per day of crude, ConocoPhillips said. The company has held leases in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska since 1999.

— Energy Dept. to grant $450 million for renewable energy projects on mine sites. The Biden administration announced $450 million in funding from the bipartisan infrastructure law for turning current and former mine sites into renewable energy developments, which could include advanced nuclear projects and power plants with carbon capture capabilities, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said. Additionally, the administration is set to release final tax credit guidance for clean energy companies' investments in communities economically tied to coal and oil production, which are eligible under the Inflation Reduction Act for an extra 10% tax credit on top of a 30% tax credit for renewable energy projects.

— Oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico are releasing more methane emissions than previously estimated, as a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences shows that the climate impacts of the operations are twice that of official estimates. Methane emissions in the region totaled 600,000 metric tons per year, with average methane levels in federal waters three times higher than official estimates while emissions were 13 times higher in state waters.

— Biden administration wants to wean American children off milk in favor of soy milk and other dairy-free options in response to an increasing prevalence of lactose intolerance that disproportionately affects minorities. As a result, milk rations would be slashed for low-income families receiving benefits from a major federal food assistance program. Link to more via the Washington Times.

— Big birds. Restaurant companies, including KFC and Chick-fil-A Inc., have come to prize chickens that weigh about 4 pounds, a slimmer bird than the big-breasted varieties that have come to dominate the U.S. chicken industry. Some fast-food chain executives say the smaller-size birds that are often used for sandwiches and chicken-on-the bone offerings are more tender and flavorful than their bigger counterparts, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). Chick-fil-A, the biggest U.S. chicken chain by sales, has long relied on small birds for its sandwiches. However, rising demand in recent years from restaurants and places like convenience stores — coupled with chicken companies’ longtime focus on more profitable big birds — is driving up costs for restaurant operators. Large birds, those weighing at least 7.76 pounds, made up a quarter of the birds killed last year, compared to 6.1% in 2005.

— One in every six people worldwide are affected by infertility, the World Health Organization (WHO) said. The WHO’s new report, which looked at 133 studies from 1990 to 2021, said 17.5% experience infertility at some point, defined as not having conceived after a year of unprotected sex. Interestingly there is no significant difference in infertility between rich and poor countries, suggesting that failure to conceive is not driving the difference in birth rates between the two groups. The report does not say whether infertility has become more common: Some researchers think that widely used “endocrine-disrupting” chemicals in plastics and cosmetics are behind a global collapse in fertility.  

— Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro helped a typical 230-pound person with obesity lose up to 50 pounds during a test period of nearly 17 months. No  other antiobesity drug has ever safely made such a difference. A product of a recent, sometimes painful overhaul in how Lilly develops drugs, Mounjaro is already on the market for diabetes. Its expected approval for weight loss has helped make Lilly the U.S.’s most valuable standalone pharmaceutical company.

— The Chicago mayoral race runoff today features a pair of Democrats who are dramatically different people ideologically. One, Paul Vallas, quipped that he was basically a Republican. The other, Brandon Johnson, is a progressive who has the backing of Bernie Sanders. Vallas is a former Chicago school superintendent. Johnson is a former Chicago Teachers Union leader. Vallas wants the police to crack down on crime in the city. Johnson wants the city to invest in a “more holistic approach to public safety.”

— Wisconsin Supreme Court judicial election today features Democratic-supported Janet Protasiewicz, a liberal, and Republican-backed Dan Kelly, a conservative. The election will determine whether liberals or conservatives control the state Supreme Court, which will make decisions soon about abortion and redistricting. Conservatives currently hold a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court — an advantage that’s helped the right lock in power for the Republican-dominated legislature. But a win by the liberal judge on the ballot could provide a new check on the state GOP. Spending in the race exploded and surpassed $45 million as of late last week, according to WisPolitics.com, roughly tripling the previous state judicial race record. As of Monday morning, nearly 410,000 people had already voted early. Wisconsin voters will decide the future of abortion and other hot-button issues in a state at the center of the 2024 presidential election.

— JPMorgan VP quits Wall Street to run against Santos in New York. Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who embellished his resume by claiming to have worked on Wall Street, will face a Republican primary challenge from someone who actually did — former JPMorgan Chase Vice President Kellen Curry. Curry said he quit his job at the banking business to file campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission on Monday.

— Biden’s advisers not expecting 2024 presidential run announcement in near future. Axios reports (link) that President Biden’s advisers and close allies “don’t expect him to announce a run for re-election any time soon — and some now believe it could come as late as July, or perhaps even the fall.” According to Axios, Biden advisers “also believe that waiting has a potential upside,” as it allows him to “contrast his leadership from the Oval Office with the chaos in the Republican Party, and the drama surrounding” former President Donald Trump’s indictment. Biden’s waiting game has “left many ambitious Democrats and would-be staffers with their 2024 plans on hold,” as they “initially thought Biden would launch a campaign soon after the Christmas break, after talking with his family.”
 

— Former President Donald Trump arrived in New York ahead of a court appearance this afternoon when he will face criminal charges. Trump was indicted by a grand jury last week in a case related to alleged hush-money payments he made to an adult-film actress. He denies the charges. New York’s mayor, Eric Adams, warned those protesting against the former president's arraignment to “be on [their] best behavior” while in town. They include the right-wing congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, who plans to join a rally on Tuesday.

     Trump’s campaign says it has raised $7 million since last Thursday, when he became the first ex-president in U.S. history to be indicted — balancing out to about $2 million per day. The haul is the latest sign that the looming criminal charges against the billionaire have had little effect on his base of supporters.

     The latest polls show Trump expanding his lead for the Republican primaries. He is still well ahead of the field in New Hampshire, which votes early.

— U.S. officials are expected to shut down all salmon fishing off California for 2023, the New York Times reports (link). An alarming decline in stocks is linked to heavily engineered waterways and abnormal heat and drought.

— On Forbes’ 37th annual World’s Billionaires List, the planet’s 2,640 billionaires are cumulatively worth $12.2 trillion. Turbulent times in both the public and private markets mean 28 fewer billionaires than last year — and a $500 billion decrease in total wealth. In fact, nearly half the planet’s billionaires are poorer than they were a year ago, and several familiar faces like Kanye West and Sam Bankman-Fried fell out of the three-comma club altogether. Link for details.

— Connecticut won its fifth NCAA men’s basketball title. The Huskies capped a dominant tournament by defeating the San Diego State Aztecs, 76-59, in Houston. Connecticut is now tied for fourth place all-time with Duke and Indiana, behind UCLA’s 11 titles, Kentucky’s eight and North Carolina’s six. UConn had not won an NCAA Tournament game in seven years. UConn never has lost a national title game.

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