First Thing Today
This morning report highlights the overnight trading session and key domestic and global developments impacting markets.
Corn, soybeans soften leading up to USDA’s reports. Wet late-season weather lowers Chinese corn crop prospects. Timely soybean planting for Brazil. Russian wheat export prices climb for the 13th week in a row.
Rains easing drought on northern Plains. Cargill shifts some soybean exports to Texas as repairs to Louisiana facilities continue. U.S. energy prices climbing. Prices rising for hogs on China’s spot & futures markets.
Strong September jobs report expected. Onslaught of late-season rains for northern China raises quality concerns. Senate passed a short-term extension of the debt limit. Waiver system for pork processing line speeds
Global food prices up nearly a third from year-ago. Farm optimism slides as inputs rise, ag trade prospects dim. Debt limit ceasefire. Russia offers to ease Europe’s gas crisis, with stipulations.
Attaché: China to bring in 30 MMT of corn in 2020-21 & 20 MMT in 2021-22. Biden: ‘Real possibility’ Dems could revise Senate rules to counter filibuster. PCR sales soared in Wuhan before first official Covid-19 cases.
Cordonnier maintains U.S. crop estimates, notes ‘surprisingly good’ bean yields. Russian wheat prices still rising. Another Chinese developer has fallen into crisis. Biden warns U.S. could default, blames McConnell.
Soybeans drop to a six-month low. Dry weather holding back winter wheat planting in Russia. Canadian canola exports down sharply from year-ago. Biden administration to lay out China trade policy.
Welcome moisture for HRW wheat areas. Soybean crush expected to hit four-year low for August. Russian wheat tariff will hit a new high next week. Euro-zone inflation hits highest level in 13 years as energy prices soar.
Light buying as market readies for USDA reports that have historically sparked volatility. China’s official PMI dips into contraction territory. Lawmakers to vote on measure averting a government shutdown today.
CHS’s Myrtle Grove terminal reopens. Cyclone damages Indian crops. Senate preparing ‘clean’ stopgap spending measure to fund government agencies until Dec. 3. Argentina lifts cap on beef exports.
Cordonnier cuts U.S. corn yield estimate. CNGOIC official expects strong Chinese grain imports in 2021-22. World Weather says western HRW wheat areas should see some dryness relief this week.
Analysts expect record Brazilian bean crop of nearly 144 MMT. Drying to worsen on the U.S. Plains, Canadian Prairies. More than 12,000 migrants from Del Rio surge have been released into U.S. Bullish H&P Report Friday.
Rains have Argentine corn planting off to a quick start, but more needed. China the lead buyer of Australian wheat, despite tensions. Likely outcomes for key congressional issues.
Warm, dry fall and winter could lead to low water levels on the Missouri River. When will Senate vote on combined CR/debt suspension bill? China lowers sow herd target in five-year plan.
Hurricane Ida made a thin input supply situation worse. Fed focus is on taper timing amid mixed economic signals. CR with debt suspension bill clears House but expected to be defeated in Senate.
Cordonnier warns his U.S. corn & soybean yield forecasts may fall. Gulf terminals slowly coming back online. Inflation will continue to rise over the next two years. Cattle hold up well in the fact of economic jitters.
China’s wheat imports reach highest level in more than two decades. Russian wheat export prices climb for 10th consecutive week. Possibility of a debt default rattles the market.
Russia lowers tariff on wheat exports for first time in a month. Biofuel producers pushing for modeling change regarding SAF tax credit eligibility. Pork prices have turned up, but cash market remains under pressure.
Strategie Grains calling for tighter global wheat supplies. Business Roundtable sounds alarm on debt ceiling; Yellen calls McConnell. POET pledges its ethanol will reduce emissions at least 70% vs. gasoline by 2030.
Nicholas expected to stall over Louisiana, storms possible in the Ohio Valley. Another light NOPA crush expected to close out marketing year. Pork prices surge.