Good morning!
Grain markets mixed but mostly firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn futures were up 2 1/4 cents. November soybeans were down 1/2 cent and December winter wheat futures were 4 3/4 to 6 cents higher. Corn market bears are now showing signs of exhaustion after Wednesday’s high-range close in December futures. Also, it appears corn futures traders have recently been factoring into prices a whopper U.S. corn crop to be forecast by USDA in its monthly supply and demand report next Tuesday. Some very big average corn yield figures are being bandied about in the trade. This could be setting up the corn market for a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” scenario regarding the USDA report next Tuesday. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $65.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.24 percent.
Mini heat wave in the Great Plains… A mini heatwave is evolving across the central and southern Great Plains and it will last into the weekend, said World Weather Inc. in a special report issued Wednesday afternoon. “Temperatures of 95-108 degrees are likely, with Friday afternoon hottest. The heat will stress livestock and crops while restricting human activity and raising the demand for supplemental cooling fuel. However, the event will not last long enough to be of much concern and the heat is unlikely to advance very far out of the Great Plains due to a passing cool front late this weekend and early next week.” Strong wind speeds are expected during the heat event. Next week will bring on another round of excessive heat and this time some of the heat will reach into the Midwest. While the cooling should occur in the Great Plains Saturday afternoon into Monday night, a return of warmer weather is likely in the Plains again during the middle part of next week and that is when some of the Midwest could be impacted by warmer weather to accelerate drying conditions. World Weather, Inc. believes rainfall may be restricted in the lower eastern Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin over the next week to 10 days, “possibly leading to accelerated drying and concern over crop conditions.”
Russia says Trump-Putin to meet soon… Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will meet for summit talks within the next few days, the Kremlin said today. Russia and the U.S. have agreed on a venue for the meeting and “together with our American colleagues, we are starting to work on specific issues,” with the aim of holding the talks next week, Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters, according to Bloomberg. The announcement came a day after Putin met with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff in the Kremlin for nearly three hours of talks as the U.S. pushes for an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump has threatened to hit purchasers of Russian oil with secondary tariffs unless Putin agrees to a truce with Ukraine. European and U.S. stock futures rallied overnight on the news.
Trump tariffs kick in today… President Trump’s new tariffs have now taken hold, with higher rates for almost all U.S. trading partners. The tariffs will push the average U.S. tariff rate to 15.2%, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates, with some countries facing duties as high as 50%. Trump said the tariffs will lower U.S. trade deficits with other countries and push U.S. companies to move manufacturing back to the U.S. Critics say the tariffs could cause inflation to rise and cause shortages of some products on store shelves.
Global diesel fuel crunch… Crude oil traders are trying to ease a global diesel fuel crunch, but the window to replenish stockpiles is narrowing due to upcoming hurricanes and refinery maintenance, according to a Bloomberg report. Oil traders say it’s going to be a tight race to refill storage tanks, which have only recently started rising from dramatically low levels, with most expecting no major easing of prices. “Higher diesel prices can have wide-reaching ramifications for the global economy, including rippling through inflation readings and denting consumer and business confidence, according to warnings from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and energy giant TotalEnergies SE,” said the Bloomberg report. “American farmers will need large volumes of diesel to power their tractors during harvesting season in the fall,” and truck drivers are already paying the most at the pump in about a year, said the report.
Upbeat economic data from China… Exports from China rose by 7.2%, year-on-year, to USD 321.8 billion in July, beating expectations of a 5.4% increase and accelerating from a 5.8% gain in June. This marked the fastest pace of exports since April, supported in part by a temporary easing of U.S. tariff pressures. China’s exports grew to Japan (2.4%), South Korea (4.6%), Taiwan (19.2%), Australia (14.8%), the EU (9.2%), and ASEAN (16.6%). In contrast, exports to the U.S. fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 21.7%, year-on-year, in July, after a 16.1% decline in June. By commodity, exports of rare earths jumped 21.4% annually, while semiconductor exports rose 16%. For the first seven months of 2025, China’s exports grew by 6.1% annually, totaling USD 2.13 trillion, according to TradingEconomics.com.
World shipping container leader upbeat on global economy… A. P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for world trade, raised its financial outlook for 2025, saying demand outside North America is proving resilient even amid concerns over a trade war. The global container market will expand 2% to 4% this year, the Copenhagen-based company said today. That compares with a previous forecast of a range between a contraction of 1% and an expansion of 4%. Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Chief Executive Officer Vincent Clerc described conditions in the U.S. as subdued due to the uncertainty from trade tariffs. Elsewhere, however, a boom in Chinese manufacturing is fueling very strong levels of demand, Clerk said.
China’s central bank stocking up on gold… The People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves in July, marking nine straight months of purchases that are helping it diversify its holdings away from U.S. dollars. Bloomberg reported gold held by the central bank increased by 60,000 troy ounces, to 73.96 million troy ounces last month. This brings the total of purchases since last November to around 36 tons. Buying by central banks, including China’s, is among the key drivers of the 30% rally that gold has seen this year. While the central bank buying spree is expected to continue, the pace has slowed amid elevated gold prices.
China wants its hog producers to scale back... China is urging top hog farmers to scale back breeding herds by about 2%, the latest push to reduce oversupply in the country’s food sector, which has sparked concerns over deflation. Farmers’ representatives are expected to gather next week to discuss effective ways to shrink sow herds by 1 million, along with other measures to rein in pork production, China’s state-backed official husbandry association said in a notice, as reported by Bloomberg. China has organized meetings to discuss reining in pork production recently, signaling Beijing’s commitment to support prices of the country’s most consumed meat. China is the world’s top pork producer and consumer. However, consumption of pork in China has been tepid due to a slowing economy that has strained consumers’ purchasing power. China’s pork prices have dropped nearly 20% in the past year, said the report.
Palm oil futures lower… Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,250 per MT Thursday, retreating for the second session in a row on a stronger ringgit and weakness in Dalian palm olein. Rising supply concerns also mounted after the Malaysian Palm Oil Association reported a 9.0% month-on month rise in crude palm oil output for July. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s monthly report is due out next week, with Reuters estimating stockpiles rose for the fifth month to near a two-year high, driven by strong production and tepid domestic demand.
Bullish stampede in cattle markets rumbles along… Strong cash and beef market fundamentals are combining with bullish technicals to continue to power live and feeder cattle futures higher. Live cattle futures remain at a discount to the cash cattle market, which is also inviting speculator buying interest in futures markets. More light cash cattle trading was reported by USDA at mid-week, with the average price being $240.00. Boxed beef prices have risen sharply the past two days.
Lean hog futures prices trending higher, too… August lean hog futures Wednesday hit a five-week high early on and then saw some mild profit-taking pressure, following the recent gains. Record high live and feeder cattle futures prices scored this week remain a bullish element for the hog futures market. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 43 cents to $109.56. Thursday’s projected cash index price is up 4 cents to $109.60. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $112.49.
Today’s reports—Thursday
--7:30 am Weekly Export Sales
--1:00 pm Vegetables and Pulses Outlook: July 2025
--2:00 pm Agricultural Prices
--2:00 pm Slaughter Weekly