Good morning!
Grain futures mostly firmer overnight, amid better risk appetite… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 1 cent. March soybeans were 7 1/4 cents higher. March SRW and HRW wheat futures were near steady. Soybean oil got a solid boost overnight on news the U.S. and India have reached a deal that will lower tariffs on each other, with India buying more U.S. ag products. (See item below.) Key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady, with crude oil slightly up and trading around $62.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.29 percent.
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Risk appetite returns to general marketplace as global stocks rally, gold and silver rebound… U.S. stock indexes are poised to open their day sessions with modest gains today, while Asian and European stock markets rallied amid a solid rebound in gold and silver prices overnight. In Asia, the Hang Seng edged up 59 points, or 0.2%, to end at 26,835 on Tuesday, attempting to stabilize after steep losses in the prior two sessions. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index surged 3.92% to close at 54,721 on Tuesday, marking fresh all-time highs as technology and financial stocks powered the rally. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9% to close at 8,857 on Tuesday, ending a four-session losing streak as strength in materials stocks offset headwinds from today’s Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate hike. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 1.29% to close at 4,068, while the Shenzhen Component gained 2.19% to 14,127 on Tuesday, recovering losses from the previous session. In Europe, both the STOXX 50 and the STOXX 600 rose 0.7% today, extending gains of around 1% from the previous session to reach fresh record highs. The advance was led by mining stocks, which benefited from the rebound in precious metals following a historic sell-off.
Warmer temps coming to Midwest, Plains states… The National Weather Service today reported a low-pressure wave will bring light, wintry precipitation from the upper Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, and rain/thunderstorms from the South to the Southeast through Wednesday. The Midwest and Plains states will see temperatures warm up as the week progresses, and the warm conditions will linger into early next week. Anomalously cold conditions over the Florida Peninsula will gradually moderate as the arctic air gets reinforced across the Great Lakes. Across the northern tier states, a series of Alberta clippers will move across the region, bringing only occasional light snow across the Great Lakes mainly today. A modest reinforcement of arctic air will reach into the Great Lakes but anomalous warmth will emerge across the northern High Plains especially by Thursday. Meanwhile, much of the western U.S. will remain mild and dry.
Pro Farmer South America crop consultant’s weekly report… Our South America crop consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, this week left his 2025/26 Brazil soybean crop production estimate unchanged 179.0 million MT, with a neutral-to-slightly higher bias. Soybeans in Brazil were 10% harvested as of late last week compared to 9% last year, according to AgRural. Cordonnier also left his 2025/26 Brazil corn production estimate unchanged this week at 137.0 million MT, with a neutral bias. Safrinha corn in Brazil was 12% planted as of late last week compared to 9% last year, according to AgRural. For Argentina, Cordonnier lowered his 2025/26 soybean production estimate by 1.0 million MT, to 48.0 million MT, with a lower bias. “The conditions in Argentina continue to deteriorate under sunny skies, warm temperatures and a lack of rain,” he said. For Argentine corn production, Cordonnier lowered his estimate by 1.0 million MT this week, to 53.0 million tons, with a lower bias.
Trump lowers tariffs on India after Modi agrees to stop buying Russian crude oil… President Trump on Monday said he will slash tariffs on India to 18% after Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian crude oil. Trump said India will also “move forward to reduce their tariffs and non-tariff Barriers against the United States, to zero” and purchase “over $500 billion dollars of U.S. Energy, technology, agricultural, coal, and many other products,” Trump said in a social media post. Modi confirmed the pact, posting on his own social media account that “Made in India products will now have a reduced tariff of 18%.” U.S. soybean oil futures saw solid price gains overnight on the news.
Monthly U.S. jobs report, other economic data, delayed due to partial federal government shutdown… The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Monday said it will not release the January jobs report this Friday, as scheduled, due to the partial federal government shutdown. “The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” Emily Liddel, BLS associate commissioner for publications and special studies, said in a statement. “Due to the partial federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend data collection, processing, and dissemination.” Other reports planned for this week, including December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release, will also be rescheduled, Bloomberg reported. Reports this morning said President Trump is pressuring GOP lawmakers to work to end the shutdown today.
U.S.-Iran talks to take place in Turkey… Turkey plans to host high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran on Friday, aimed at de-escalating tensions between the two countries, Bloomberg reported. “The summit in Istanbul would be attended by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expects some regional powers to join, the people said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject,” said the report. The talks would mark the first public meeting between Iranian and U.S. officials since a recent surge in tensions, with Trump threatening Tehran with military action if it fails to reach an agreement to curb its nuclear program.
Monthly USDA fats and oils report shows strong soybean meal, bean oil demand… USDA Monday afternoon reported U.S. soy crushings totaled 229.865 million bushels in December, below most analysts’ average of 230.5 million bushels. That is a record for the month of December but down from October 2025’s all-time record high of 236.346 million bushels. Soyoil demand remains robust at a record 2.497 billion pounds for December, bringing U.S. soyoil stocks well below expectations, at 2.179 billion pounds. Implied meal use was a record 5.627 million tons, bringing meal stocks to 411,500 tons. Meal yields were good. Implied soyoil use was 2.643 billion pounds, the second-highest level ever, behind October of 2025.Yields for soyoil continue to be below average, indicative of a lower-quality crop than the past couple of years.
Malaysian palm oil futures lower… Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second straight session Tuesday, slipping below MYR 4,200 per MT and hovering near their lowest in a week as markets reopened after a holiday Monday. Prices were rattled by weakness in Dalian edible oils and a firmer ringgit. Sentiment was further weighed down by weak official PMI data from China, a key consuming country, raising concerns about near-term demand. However, losses were partly capped by stronger import data from top buyer India, where palm oil imports surged 51% in January to a four-month high, as the tropical oil’s deep discount to rival soyoil encouraged refiners to ramp up purchases. In Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, the statistics bureau reported exports of 23.61 million MT of crude and refined palm oil in 2025, up 9.1% year on year. Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil product exports rose 17.9% in January to 1.46 million MT from December, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Cattle futures push to three-month highs as cash cattle prices surge… April live cattle on Monday gained $2.725 to $239.525 and hit a three-month high. March feeder cattle rose $6.075 to $366.35, also hitting a three-month high. The cattle futures markets saw solid gains and new for-the-move highs on big gains in cash cattle prices last week, technical buying amid bullish charts, and on confirmation from last Friday’s semiannual U.S. cattle inventory report that the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest in 75 years. USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.44. That’s up a solid $4.74 from the week prior’s average cash trade at $234.70.
Lean hog futures rally on chart-based buying… April lean hog futures on Monday rose $1.475 to $96.625. Hog futures saw solid technical buying to keep the price uptrend on the daily bar chart alive and well. The April futures solid premium to the cash market suggests futures traders think there is still more upside for the cash hog market in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents at $85.78. Today’s projected cash index price is down 7 cents at $85.71. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $59.98.