Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn futures were up 1/2 cent, January soybeans up 5 3/4 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were 3 1/2 to 4 cents lower. It appears the corn and soybean markets bulls will enjoy a “Turnaround Tuesday” phenomenon following losses on Monday. March corn has also seen a minor bullish pennant pattern form on the daily bar chart. Chart-based soybean bulls are a bit worried that a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern could be developing on the daily bar chart for March futures. March soybean meal futures hit a three-week low overnight and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has already formed in that market. Winter wheat futures markets remain trapped in near-term price downtrends on their daily bar charts. The key outside markets early this morning see the U.S. dollar slightly up. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $59.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.09 percent.
Potentially record-setting cold coming to central U. S. Wednesday night… The National Weather Service today reports a messy wintry mix is moving eastward from the Ohio Valley into the central/southern Appalachians and portions of the Mid-Atlantic this morning, with ongoing snow showers from the Upper Ohio Valley north to the Lower Great Lakes shifting eastward into interior New England and the Mid-Atlantic. To the west, another couple systems are bringing wintry weather to portions of the central and western U.S. First, an upper-wave dropping southward through the Great Basin/Rockies will bring moderate to locally heavy mountain snow over the next couple of days. Lower elevations will also see some snow showers, though accumulations will generally remain limited. However, one exception will be along the Colorado Front Range where areas of the High Plains along and east of the foothills are forecast to see some moderate accumulations. To the north, a clipper-like system will bring light snow showers to the northern Plains Tuesday. As the system reaches the Great lakes Wednesday, lake-enhanced snow showers will bring more moderate accumulations to downwind locations. Much of the eastern and central U.S. will continue to see well below average, very chilly temperatures in this winter-like pattern. Another cold front will bring a return of frigid temperatures Wednesday as highs plummet into the single digits and teens in the northern Plains and 20s and 30s into the central High Plains. This cold front will also bring the potential for widespread near record-tying/breaking lows Thursday morning across portions of the Midwest, with temperatures as low as the negative teens.
Can China still meet U.S. soybean purchase pledge for this year?… China several weeks ago promised to book at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, to be followed by additional purchases of at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years. China has not officially confirmed that target but has moved to reduce tariffs on the crop and lifted import bans on three U.S. exporters. Unless there are political impediments, “there would be no reason for them not to at least have made that amount of sales. Whether it’s shipped or not, that’s another thing,” said Wayne Gordon of UBS Group AG’s wealth management arm and as reported by Bloomberg. “The catch is that with only weeks left in the year, time is tight. According to Bloomberg calculations based on USDA data, Chinese buyers have booked roughly 3 million tons — still far short of the target. To meet that goal, they would have to book the remaining volumes over less than a month, and an unpredictable buying pace has stoked concern that China may be hampered by bureaucratic and logistical hurdles, even if it did want to honor its apparent commitment,” said the Bloomberg report. “The fact that it doesn’t make commercial sense for buyers to purchase U.S. soybeans will naturally slow down the pace of purchasing,” said Even Pay, director at Beijing-based advisory firm Trivium China, adding that the 12 million-ton pledge now looked all but out of reach. “In early November that target was ambitious, requiring buyers to book just over a million tons each week for the rest of the year. But that didn’t eventuate, and hitting the target now would require China to be booking over 2 million tons each week, including the week of Christmas, which seems close to impossible,” she said. Still, Bloomberg reported traders expected non-commercial buyers to keep taking shipments. Chinese state-owned firms, mainly Cofco, will continue to account for most purchases for this year, with some volumes expected to go into state reserves, said the traders. The bookings would likely be placed before the end of this year, in line with the deal, though vessels could be loaded in early 2026, even in the next crop year for U.S. beans, they said. With those mechanisms, the total could surpass 12 million tons, the traders said — even if commercial crushers continue to rely heavily on cheaper Brazil supply. Cofco did not immediately respond to a Bloomberg request for comment.
U.S. envoy to meet Putin in Moscow… U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential peace plan to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. Putin claimed Russian troops had taken the city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, but Ukraine’s military staff spokesman denied the claim. Witkoff is due to hold talks with Putin on the latest proposals for ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, following negotiations between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Florida this past weekend.
OECD: world economy doing better than expected… The Paris-based think tank Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the global economy is weathering U.S. and other countries’ trade tariffs better than expected due to strong investment in artificial intelligence and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. The OECD raised its U.S. and European area economic growth forecasts for this year and next but still predicts global growth will slow to 2.9% in 2026 from 3.2% in 2025. The OECD cautioned that the outlook is “fragile” and its projections are “subject to substantial risks” due to concerns about swift changes in trade measures and the risk of abrupt price corrections in the tech sector.
Trump administration urges U.S. Supreme Court to hear Bayer appeal of Roundup lawsuits… The Trump administration has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to take up Bayer AG’s appeal targeting thousands of lawsuits blaming its Roundup weedkiller for causing cancer. The U.S. solicitor general recommended that the high court agree to hear Bayer’s challenge to a Missouri jury verdict over Roundup on the grounds some of the claims were preempted by federal law. Bayer executives are hoping to knock out thousands of Roundup cases that include failure-to-warn claims, with a positive Supreme Court outcome potentially resolving existing and future glyphosate cases. Bayer shares surged as much as 15% on the news, the most in more than two decades, Bloomberg reported. The Roundup issue has plagued the German conglomerate since the takeover of Monsanto in 2018. The company already has paid more than $10 billion in verdicts and settlements over the herbicide and its active ingredient, glyphosate.
Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures rose around 1% to above MYR 4,130 per MT on Tuesday, swinging from weakness in the previous session as a weaker ringgit and firmer rival oils on the Chicago and Dalian exchanges boosted sentiment. On the demand side, imports in top buyer India are projected to surge to 9.3 million MT in 2025/26, up from 7.58 million MT in the prior period, the lowest in five years, driven by stronger food demand and more attractive pricing. In key consumer China, weak November PMI readings lifted hopes for new policy support from Beijing. Still, further gains were tempered by signs of lower exports, with Intertek reporting a 19.7% month-on-month drop in November shipments. Meanwhile, the industry association in the world’s largest supplier, Indonesia, said recent floods, landslides, and cyclone-related disruptions in Sumatra have not yet caused major production losses, limiting expectations of supply-driven price support.
Solidly lower cash cattle trade last week presses futures… The live and feeder cattle futures markets Monday saw routine corrective price pullbacks following recent good gains. A general risk-off day in the general marketplace today also kept the cattle futures market bulls timid, as did recently declining cash cattle prices. USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trading price was $211.53, which is down $5.88 from the week prior.World Weather Inc. reported the past few days that “livestock stress was quite significant across the northern half of the Great Plains and throughout the Midwest as cold rain and heavy snow was accompanied by falling temperatures. Animal stress was quite high in unprotected areas of the Midwest after weeks of unusual warmth and below-normal precipitation.” More cold weather is in store for the Plains states this week, said World Weather.
Downside price correction in lean hog futures… Lean hog futures Monday saw corrective selling pressure from the shorter-term speculators to start the trading week and month, after prices last Friday hit a three-week high. Losses in the cattle futures markets also limited buying interest in hog futures. Steadily falling cash hog prices will continue to squelch the lean hog futures bulls until the cash hog market stabilizes and starts to turn back up. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 35 cents to $81.92. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 25 cents at $81.67.