Good morning!
Grain futures mostly firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 3 1/4 cents. March soybeans were up 4 1/2 cents, while March SRW and HRW wheat futures were steady to a penny lower. The corn and soybean markets saw some short covering overnight. The corn and soybean bulls are working to stabilize their markets after Monday’s price shellacking. Winter wheat markets are trapped in trading ranges at lower price levels, but with strong technical support just below present price levels. Trading the rest of this week will be extra important for the grains, and especially corn and soybeans. If the corn and bean markets on Friday close near their weekly lows, that would be an ominously bearish development. However, if those markets close out the week well up from their weekly lows, such would be a positive and would begin to suggest corn and beans have put in near-term price bottoms. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $62.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.18 percent.
Cold temps spreading eastward; wintry weather from the Midwest into the Northeast... The National Weather Service reports after an unseasonably warm and dry start to the work week, cold weather finally returns east of the Mississippi River today as a series of cold fronts merge over the Ohio Valley this afternoon. While this cold front is not expected to set any records, tomorrow will feel much chillier across much of the eastern U.S as daytime high temperatures plummet 10-20 degrees across the board beneath Arctic high pressure. Temperatures aside, strong northwesterly flow behind the front will focus heavy lake-effect snow in the snow belts of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, wintry weather will occur over the Ohio Valley and Northeast as rain switches over to snow on the northwest flank of a developing low-pressure center. Beyond Thursday, another system is forecast to dive out of the Canadian Prairies into the northern tier of states, leading to additional snowfall over parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest. While exact snowfall amounts with this next round appear low as of now, blowing snow may be an issue with this system.
China’s soybean imports rise to record for a third year in a row… China’s soybean imports in 2025 climbed to a record for a third straight year, up 6.5% to 112 million tons, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday. Soybean crushers leaned heavily on Brazilian bean imports earlier in 2025, before reviving U.S. purchases after the trade agreement struck with the Trump administration last October. That leaves Chinese buyers on the hook for 25 million tons of U.S. beans a year through 2028. With Beijing unlikely to abandon its diversification strategy, the size and composition of its imports will largely depend on whether the truce with Washington endures. Meantime, China’s trade surplus climbed to $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a record run as overseas shipments surprised with stronger growth at the end of the year.
U.S. producer price index on deck… U.S. producer prices are expected to have risen 0.2%, month over month, in November, easing from a 0.3% increase in September, according to delayed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to be released today. October figures are also set to be released alongside the November report after the U.S. government shutdown postponed data publication. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, is likewise forecast to increase 0.2%, compared with a 0.1% gain in September. On an annual basis, headline U.S. producer inflation is projected to hold steady at 2.7%, while core producer inflation is expected to edge up to 2.7% from 2.6% previously. TradingEconomics.com
Death toll in Iran soars as protests sweep the nation… More than 2,500 people have been killed in Iranian protests that have swept the nation, activist groups said and as reported by Bloomberg, as Tehran continued its crackdown despite President Trump’s threat of action over mounting fatalities. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported 2,571 Iranian deaths as of Wednesday, up from about 500 at the start of the week and amid speculation the actual toll could be dramatically higher. Trump on Tuesday urged Iranian dissidents to continue protesting against the regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and “take over your institutions if possible,” adding that he would “act accordingly” once he assesses how many demonstrators have been killed. Trump earlier addressed the Iranian people in a Truth Social post, saying “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” without specifying what he meant.
Blistering metals markets rallies continue, with silver above $90… Metals markets have extended their dramatic rallies early this — with gold, silver, copper and tin all hitting record highs — as investors bet on a boost from more U.S. interest rate cuts and a revival in sentiment across Chinese financial markets. “Commodities have posted eye-watering gains since late 2025 as traders position themselves for a year in which the Federal Reserve is expected to cut borrowing costs further to bolster U.S. growth. That’s aided the case for base metals, while precious metals are also benefiting from renewed attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration and an increasingly tense geopolitical backdrop,” reported Bloomberg. Silver jumped as much as 5.3% to top $90 an ounce for the first time overnight, while gold notched another all-time peak. Tin was the standout among base metals, and was up as much as 6% at one point, while copper also resumed its rally. Many metals are benefiting from prospects for better manufacturing demand, including in growth sectors like artificial intelligence, said the Bloomberg report.
Greenland, Denmark diplomats to meet with Vance, Rubio today… Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen and his counterpart from Greenland, Vivian Motzfeldt, will face Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio at the White House today, just hours after the island’s prime minister said that if made to choose, Greenland would opt for Denmark. The Greenland and Denmark diplomats’ goal is to convince the U.S. officials there’s no need to take over Greenland. President Trump has said the U.S. needs Greenland for national defense. The Danes argue that a comprehensive defense agreement dating back to 1951 already allows the U.S. to use the territory as it needs to for defenses — rendering any takeover pointless, Bloomberg reported. “Greenland and Denmark appear to have taken two options off the table: a purchase and any rapprochement through independence. Greenlanders have ruled out selling their land regardless of how much money would be offered in exchange for ownership, and secession is on the back burner for now,” said Bloomberg. “A move labeled the off-ramp option would be for Greenland to offer Trump a Ukraine-style minerals deal where the US gets access to the island’s rare earths in exchange for security guarantees. Such an agreement would allow Trump to claim victory without annexation and shift the focus from geopolitics to commercial success,” said the report.
Yen falls to 18-month low against the greenback as Japan officials warn speculators… Japan’s finance minister and its top currency official issued fresh warnings to speculators after the yen weakened to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in 18 months amid reports of a snap general election in Japan. “We won’t rule out any means and will respond appropriately to moves that are excessive, including those that are speculative,” Satsuki Katayama told reporters on Wednesday and as reported by Bloomberg, in a hint that direct intervention in markets was among the options available. “We’ve mentioned this to the prime minister today as well…. “The kind of sudden moves we saw on Jan. 9 have nothing to do with fundamentals, and are deeply concerning,” she added. Her message was soon backed up by Atsushi Mimura, the ministry’s top official in charge of the yen, who reiterated that no options were being ruled out.
While the Bank of Japan has lifted interest rates to their highest level in 30 years and the Federal Reserve has lowered U.S. rates, downward pressure on the yen has continued. Bets against the yen picked up speed after Sanae Takaichi emerged as the leading candidate to become prime minister last October. Takaichi is known for her pro-fiscal and monetary stimulus views. Reports in recent days that she will call an early election in February have fueled further weakness in the yen by reinforcing the view that her expansionary policies will continue.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices pull back… Malaysian palm oil futures were at MYR 4,060 per MT Wednesday, pulling back from the one-month high of MYR 4,090 from two sessions prior, tracking the late-session decline for crude oil benchmarks that pare demand for biofuel substitutes. Energy benchmarks eased from four sessions of gains as markets gauged the magnitude of risk that geopolitical unrest in Iran places on oil supplies from the region, impacting bids for feedstock on biodiesel across major Southeast Asian consumers. The volatility for crude oil coincided with the timing of Indonesia’s decision of its B50 biodiesel mandate, which depends on the gap between crude oil and crude palm oil. In the meantime, cargo surveyors reported that palm oil shipments out of Malaysia increased between 18% and 29% from the previous month on the first 10 days of January. In turn, Chinese imports rose the most in three months during December to reflect firmer year-end demand.
Cash cattle bids higher so far this week… February live cattle on Tuesday rose $2.00 to $237.25 and hit a 2.5-month high. March feeder cattle gained $5.95 to $362.175 and also hit a 2.5-month high. The cattle futures markets saw good buying interest today amid bullish technical charts and bullish fundamentals, to suggest more price upside is likely in the near term. USDA Tuesday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $233.00. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $231.86, which is up 18 cents from the prior week. The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power Tuesday. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.
Weakening cash hog market giving lean hog futures bulls pause… February lean hog futures on Tuesday rose 20 cents to $84.625. Hog futures saw a mild upside correction after two days in a row of downside pressure. A weakening cash hog market and CME lean hog index have limited buying interest in futures just recently. The latest CME lean hog index is down 25 cents to $80.60. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 10 cents at $80.50. Tuesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $68.56.