Good morning!
Grain prices mostly weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 4 1/4 cents, November soybeans down 5 1/2 cents and December winter wheat futures markets were 1/2 cent lower to 1/2 cent higher. Last Friday’s price action in the corn and soybean futures markets was extra important, and telling. Following a bearish USDA monthly supply and demand report Friday at midday, both corn and soybean markets posted impressive rallies. December corn hit a seven-week high and November soybeans marked a two-week high. Friday’s price action was a classic “sell the rumor, buy the fact” scenario that suggests the bearish fundamentals of big U.S. corn and soybean crops have been factored into futures prices. Key for the corn and soybean market bulls this week will be to show some follow-through buying strength and not give back the recent price gains. So far, the overnight selling in corn and soybeans are just routine corrective and consolidative price pullbacks. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.06 percent.
Rains in the Plains early this week… The National Weather Service today reported showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly across the northern Plains today, moving across the northern Rockies/high Plains today and reload over the central Plains Tuesday night. The mid-September heat wave is persisting up the Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, with warmer-than-normal weather from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. The weather system responsible for bringing the recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Great Plains is forecast to weaken today. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected across the central U.S. today.Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will take its time exiting the northern Plains, where additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today before spreading eastward into the upper Midwest later today and then dissipate.
Corteva mulls splitting up company… Corteva, the $50 billion agricultural giant best known for its Pioneer seeds, is exploring a breakup that would separate its seed and pesticide businesses, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. A formal announcement could come soon, barring last-minute snags. The move would mark a dramatic shift for a company born out of the 2019 DowDuPont spinout and could unleash a new wave of dealmaking in the farm sector. “Separating Corteva’s crop-seed unit from its pesticide business could help shield its seeds from any potential future liabilities,” the WSJ reported, noting that rival Bayer has faced billions in litigation costs over its Roundup weedkiller. Corteva’s share price has surged nearly 150% since its spinoff, and more than 25% this year alone, closing Friday up about 2% on the news before continuing to climb in after-hours trading. The company reported about $17 billion in sales last year — $9.6 billion from seeds and $7.4 billion from crop protection chemicals.
NOPA crush report out today… Today’s National Soybean Processers Association (NOPA) report is expected to show members crushed 182.857 million bushels in August, according to a Reuters poll. If realized, it would be down 6.6% from July but up 15.7% from August 2024. It would also be the largest August crush on record as NOPA membership has grown amid crush expansion in recent years. Soyoil stocks as of Aug. 31 are projected at 1.298 billion pounds.
U.S.-China trade talks enter second day… U.S. and Chinese trade officials discussed TikTok, trade and the global economy during high-level talks held in Madrid, Spain Sunday. China said over the weekend it is launching a probe into U.S. semiconductors, saying Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws. The talks, expected to continue today, included national security issues and the status of ByteDance Ltd.'s TikTok, which faces a deadline to reach a deal to continue operations in the U.S. Officials also expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping as soon as October, when they’re scheduled to attend a summit in South Korea. A U.S. delegation headed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and a Chinese group led by Vice Premier He Lifeng met for almost six hours on Sunday, reports said.
Fitch downgrades French government debt… Fitch Ratings over the weekend downgraded France’s government credit assessment to A+ from AA-, citing the country’s rising public indebtedness and political instability. The downgrade comes after the collapse of another French government and amid a battle to contain a bulging debt burden, with Fitch warning that the run-up to the presidential election in 2027 will further limit the scope for fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects France’s fiscal deficits to remain above 5% of GDP in 2026-2027 and assumes upcoming budget negotiations will produce a more diluted fiscal consolidation package than previously proposed.
Mildly downbeat economic data from China… China’s industrial production rose 5.2% annually in August, slowing from 5.7% growth in July and missing trade forecasts of up 5.8%. This was the weakest growth in a year and driven by slower output in manufacturing and utilities. Meanwhile, China’s retail sales grew 3.4% annually, short of market expectations of up 3.8%, as a boost from the consumer trade-in program has faded.
FOMC meeting this week… Global markets await the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to deliver a 25-basis point rate cut, the first since November of 2024. The decision comes amid criticism that the Fed has been slow to react to softening U.S. economic data, including a major payroll revision and tariff-driven inflation. Updated Fed projections may show slower growth and rising unemployment, while Chair Jerome Powell is set to face pointed questioning at his post-meeting press conference.
Cattle futures markets getting wobbly… October live cattle futures Friday fell $2.30 to $229.975, hit a four-week low and for the week lost $6.00. September feeder cattle futures Friday were down $4.825 to $350.40, hit a four-week low and for the week were down $9.425. Both markets closed at technically bearish weekly low closes Friday. The cattle futures bulls fizzled Friday, which gives the speculative bears momentum heading into trading early this week. Weaker cash cattle prices the past couple weeks are also negative. Cash cattle trading turned active Friday. USDA today reported steers fetched an average price of $239.26 and heifers an average of $239.30. That compares to the prior week’s average cash cattle trade at $242.55. This Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report will likely continue a string of reports that show historically low numbers of cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots.
Profit taking in lean hog futures… October lean hog futures on Friday fell $1.05 to $97.125. The market saw routine profit-taking pressure from recent gains that last week pushed prices to a contract high. The near-term technical posture for lean hog futures is still firmly bullish, which will at least keep the speculative bears at bay early this week. The latest CME lean hog index rose 11 cents to $106.04 as of Sept 10. Today’s projected cash index price is up 10 cents at $106.14. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price Friday was $106.85.
USDA reports today—Monday
-- Export Inspections
-- Season-Average Price Forecasts
-- Dairy Monthly Tables
-- Wheat Data
-- Crop Progress
-- Livestock Historical Track Records