Good morning!
Grain futures prices down overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 1/4 cents, November soybeans down 3 1/2 cents, and December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were 2 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents lower. The grain market bears are confident at mid-week, as corn hovers near a six-week low, soybeans near a two-week low and the winter wheat markets near their contract and five-year lows. Near-term technicals are also leaning bearish for the grains. Soybean traders today will get a look at the latest monthly crush report from NOPA. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $58.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.017 percent.
Scattered rains in the Midwest, Plains… The National Weather Service reports there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Midwest, Northern Plains to the Southern Plains and Upper Great Lakes today and Thursday. Heavy snow is likely over parts of the Sierra Mountains today and over the northern Rockies on Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the central/southern Rockies today into Thursday morning. Rain will continue on Thursday over the Northern Plains, the middle Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes.
Trump threatens China with halt in cooking oil trade… President Trump on Tuesday said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China. The potential move would be a retaliation against China for its refusal to buy U.S. soybeans, which Trump said “is an economically hostile act” that is purposefully “causing difficulty for our soybean farmers.” China remains well supplied with soybeans, largely due to South American purchases. “We are considering terminating business with China having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce cooking oil ourselves; we don’t need to purchase it from China,” Trump posted on social media. Just hours earlier, both Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer expressed confidence that U.S.-China tensions would ease through ongoing trade talks. Used cooking oil, or UCO, became a flashpoint in the U.S. last year, with imports used to make renewable diesel fuel raising concerns that U.S. soybean farmers were missing out on demand. Imports from China reached a record high in 2024, according to USDA and as reported by Bloomberg.
Weak China economic data may strengthen U.S. hand… China’s consumer prices dropped 0.3%, year-on-year, in September 2025, steeper than market estimates of a 0.1% decline but slightly less than a 0.4% fall in the previous month, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics Tuesday. Food prices declined further (-4.4% vs -4.3% in August), recording the strongest contraction since January 2024, amid broad-based declines across categories, with pork prices down further due to abundant supply ahead of the Golden Week holidays, lower production costs, and weak demand. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 1.0%, year-on-year, the highest in 19 months, after August’s 0.9% gain. On a monthly basis, the CPI inched up 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.2% after remaining flat in August. China’s economy has been showing some stress cracks, which likely gives the U.S. better leverage in their current trade negotiations.
Fed Chair Powell says rate cut coming… Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday said in a speech to an economics group that the Fed is on track to deliver another quarter-point interest-rate cut later this month. He pointed to the low pace of hiring and said the job sector may weaken further, adding that further declines in job openings might show up in the unemployment rate. The Fed is scheduled to meet Oct. 28-29. Powell said he and his colleagues are looking to alternative data sources due to the U.S. government shutdown, which is reducing their read on the U.S. economy.
Gold hits another record high overnight; silver squeeze still in play… December Comex gold futures overnight hit a record high of $4,235.80 an ounce, while December Comex silver futures were sharply higher after prices on Tuesday hit an all-time peak of $52.495 an ounce. Both metals are seeing safe-haven demand amid heightened U.S.-China trade tensions and the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutdown. The silver market is seeing a “short squeeze” amid very short supplies of the metal in London driving prices there significantly above those seen in New York. JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon was asked about owning gold. “I’m not a gold buyer — it costs 4% to own it,” Dimon said Tuesday at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington. “It could easily go to $5,000, $10,000 in environments like this. This is one of the few times in my life it’s semi-rational to have some in your portfolio,” he said and as reported by Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures see corrective bounce… Malaysian palm oil futures hovered above MYR 4,450 per MT Wednesday, reversing losses from the previous three sessions. The rebound followed reports that top producer Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to secure domestic biodiesel supply. The country plans to roll out B50 biodiesel in 2026 and introduce 10% bioethanol in gasoline to curb emissions and reduce fuel imports. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s palm oil output fell 0.73% in September from August to 1.84 million MT, marking the first decline in three months, according to the Malaysia Palm Oil Board. However, further gains were limited by a stronger ringgit. On the demand side, India, the world’s largest palm oil consumer, is expected to import less than 600,000 MT this month, following a 16% decline in September.
Cattle futures bulls keep their foot on the gas… Solid overall supply and demand fundamentals in the cash cattle and beef markets, and bullish charts, are fueling the bull market runs in live and feeder cattle futures. Historically tight supplies of cattle in U.S. feedlots are a main bullish driver, but the recent rebound in cash cattle and boxed beef prices have also energized the bulls. The cattle futures markets are now short-term overbought, technically, and due for corrective price pullbacks soon. USDA Tuesday reported very light cash cattle trade at $236.00. Cash cattle trade last week averaged $234.07, up $3.31 from the prior week average.
Hogs
Technical selling pushes lean hog futures to seven-week low… The hog futures market on Tuesday saw more chart-based selling pressure amid a rapidly eroding near-term technical posture and falling cash hog prices. Deteriorating relations between the U.S and China are also a bearish fundamental element for the hog futures market. China is a major pork importer but has in recent months been avoiding purchasing U.S. ag products. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 86 cents at $98.57. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 58 cents at $97.99. Tuesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $97.31.