Good morning!
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was down 1 3/4 cents. January soybeans were 1 1/4 cents lower. December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were down 4 to 5 cents. The grain futures markets late this week are seeing some chart consolidation from recent price gains, as well as some profit-taking from the shorter-term speculators. The soybean meal futures market has screamed higher recently but it’s now extremely overbought and due for a downside correction. The U.S. dollar index Thursday hit a three-month high, which is also a bearish outside-market element for the grain markets late this week. The key outside markets early this morning see the USDX near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $60.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.10 percent.
Cooler temps and spotty showers over the central U.S.… The National Weather Service today said much of the country will have good trick-or-treating weather this evening/tonight.The exceptions will be for areas of the Pacific Northwest, from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, and across the northern and central Appalachians. A cool weather pattern is on tap from the Plains eastward due to the combination of cool air in the wake of the system pushing to the east and a reinforcing cold air mass moving in behind it; cold enough to induce lake-effect precipitation.Areas from the Rockies to the West coast and increasingly across the High Plains will see mostly above average temperatures and dry weather over the next few days. On Monday, a couple of record high temperatures are possible along the Colorado Front Range, said the NWS.
Details on China purchases of U.S. soybeans… China bought at least four U.S. soybean cargoes after Thursday’s summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The cargoes are for shipment later this year and in early 2026, and the total volume is about 250,000 tons. The soybeans will be shipped from the Pacific Northwest and U.S. Gulf, according to people familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said China agreed to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this year, with sales rising to 25 million tons annually over the next three years. China booked its first U.S. soybean cargoes earlier this week, just days before the summit between Trump and Xi, lifting a months-long pause. The Bloomberg report said traders and crushers expect China to roll back an additional 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, which was implemented earlier this year as part of countermeasures against Washington — though Beijing hasn’t been explicit on this yet. However, even with that cut, U.S. soybean cargoes would still incur 13% duties, making them uncompetitive with Brazil, which is China’s top supplier.
China’s Xi says global supply chains must be stable… Chinese President Xi Jinping today warned against “breaking supply chains,” in his first public remarks after a landmark meeting with President Trump that secured a one-year truce in the world’s biggest trade fight. Countries should “jointly maintain stable and smooth industrial and supply chains,” Xi said during a speech Friday at the leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group in Gyeongju, South Korea. “We must adhere to the principle of joining hands rather than letting go, and extending rather than breaking supply chains,” the Chinese leader said, while calling on those gathered to practice “genuine multilateralism.” Bloomberg today reported, “Adding to that flurry of diplomacy, defense chiefs from the world’s largest economies held their first in-person talks Friday morning, in another sign of stabilizing ties. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth sat down with Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun at a gathering in Kuala Lumpur.”
Weak China manufacturing data… China’s factory activity slumped for the longest streak in more than nine years, prompting fresh calls for greater government stimulus measures. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49 in October, suggesting activity dropped the most in six months, with new orders shrinking the most since 2023. A reading below 50 suggests contraction in the sector.
Trump tells GOP to use filibuster to reopen U.S. government… President Trump late Thursday called on U.S. Senate Republicans to vote to get rid of the filibuster in the upper chamber, amid a U.S. government shutdown that has lasted nearly a month. “BECAUSE OF THE FACT THAT THE DEMOCRATS HAVE GONE STONE COLD “CRAZY,” THE CHOICE IS CLEAR — INITIATE THE “NUCLEAR OPTION,” GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN,” Trump wrote on social media late Thursday night. Because of the filibuster rule in the U.S. Senate, most legislation needs 60 votes to pass. While a majority of lawmakers could revise those rules, both parties have largely resisted doing so to preserve their ability to shape legislation when outside of the majority. During the recent funding showdown, Democrats have refused to support a Republican bill offering stopgap funding unless the GOP agrees to extend healthcare subsidies. Bloomberg.
Malaysian palm oil futures weaker… Malaysian palm oil futures fell below MYR 4,250 per MT, extending their recent decline amid weakness in rival edible oils on the Dalian market and a stronger ringgit. Prices hovered at their lowest in 12 weeks and were set for a second consecutive weekly and monthly drop, down around 4.4% and 2.9% so far, respectively. Sentiment was pressured by signs of sluggish exports in October and bets of softer demand as winter approaches, when consumption in key importing countries typically slows. Adding to the bearish tone, official PMI data from China showed a loss of economic momentum in October. At the same time, the temporary U.S.-China trade truce failed to lift market confidence, as traders viewed it as a tactical pause rather than a genuine breakthrough. In top producer Indonesia, officials are seeking a similar zero-tariff arrangement with the U.S. to match Malaysia’s terms and boost the competitiveness of its palm oil exports.
Cattle futures markets bulls worried about potentially bearish chart patterns… The live and feeder cattle futures markets Thursday saw pauses after the recent steep price downdrafts. While Wednesday’s solid rebounds begin to suggest this week’s lows are near- term market bottoms, bulls are worried that bearish pennant patterns are forming on the daily bar charts for December live cattle and January feeders. USDA Thursday reported active cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $229.70 versus last week’s average of $237.89.
Lean hog futures still trapped in a downtrend… The lean hog futures market on Thursday saw tepid short covering as the bulls work to stabilize prices following the recent selling pressure and a price downtrend in place. Still overall bearish price charts and steadily falling cash hog prices will likely continue to limit buying interest in the hog futures market. December hog futures still have a discount to the cash index, which may work to limit selling interest in futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 17 cents at $91.86. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 33 cents at $91.53. Thursday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $87.99.