Good morning!
Soybeans cling to overnight gains… As of 6 a.m. CT, December corn was down 3 1/2 cents. November soybeans were up 1 cent, December meal was up $1.30 and December soybean oil was 46 points lower. December soft red winter wheat fell 5 1/4 cents, while December hard red winter wheat declined 7 cents. Attention is turning to Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, with traders positioning accordingly after last week’s quarterly stocks data showed an unexpectedly large bump in U.S. corn stocks. Drier weather is allowing harvest to progress in the previously inundated western Corn Belt, though reports of quality issues continue to mount.
In key outside markets, the U.S. dollar is higher versus major rivals after a Tuesday pullback, putting some pressure on grain markets. Oil futures are trading slightly higher, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 5.33%. U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower start for equities after a Tuesday rally that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq end at records.
Fed minutes on tap… Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, which saw policy makers unanimously back a quarter-point rate hike and pencil in a hawkish rate path, will be released at 1 p.m. CT and closely watched for clues to the central bank’s next move. “Markets are still looking for greater clarity on the data-policy reaction function, particularly which inflation outcomes would justify another hike this year,” said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, in a note. “The minutes should also offer some insight into any dovish dissent.”
Iran ramps up tanker attacks… Iran has increased the pace of attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, Bloomberg reported, noting that U.K. Maritime Trade Operations has reported nine attacks so far this month. The report said the impact of the escalated attacks on Hormuz shipments and flows of seaborne gas is uncertain. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have steadily increased since early summer, with some Wall Street banks pegging shipments near prewar levels. Vice President JD Vance told Reuters in an interview that any agreement to reopen the strait and end the war would require Tehran to reduce its ability to enrich uranium rather than merely offer assurances of future nuclear drawdowns. Oil futures were up slightly early Wednesday morning, with Nymex WTI crude trading just above $90 a barrel.
Well above average temps for western U.S… Conditions across the western to central U.S. remain well above average for October with widespread highs in the 70s and 80s, the National Weather Service said. Some daily record highs will be challenged or broken. Meanwhile, tropical moisture interacting with a quasi-stationary boundary through Florida will continue to lead to widespread thunderstorms across most of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Panhandle into coastal southeastern Georgia through the next couple of days. This occurs as Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to intensify over the southwestern Gulf and begin tracking toward the central portion of the Gulf Coast region. Otherwise, the rest of the country will be mostly dry through mid-week with only some widely scattered showers expected over the central Rockies/Four Corners region, and from the upper Great Lakes to northern New England today as a frontal system moves through. Some showers will begin to develop over the north-central Plains by early Friday morning as a low-pressure system develops on the lee side of the northern Rockies.
Pro-Prop 12 PAC targets lawmakers… The American Meat Producers PAC is launching a $3 million political ad campaign targeting candidates who back legislation to stop state and local governments from regulating agricultural production standards for livestock raised in other states, Agri-Pulse reports. The first ad, which aired last Saturday during the Ohio State-Iowa football game, focuses on Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee in Iowa’s open Senate race, the report noted. Hinson is sponsor of the Save Our Bacon Act that would prohibit states from “interfering with the production of livestock in other states.” The legislation is part of the farm bill passed by the House in April. Agri-Pulse noted the PAC spent $30 million earlier this year, targeting lawmakers including Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, who withdrew his support for Save Our Bacon in June.
Thompson reiterates desire to retain top House ag post… House Agriculture Committee Chair G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) remains committed to seeking a waiver to retain his leadership position on the panel, regardless of whether House Republicans hold the majority, according to Politico’s Morning Ag newsletter. Despite pushback from some GOP colleagues regarding extensions past the party’s decades-old six-year term limit, Thompson pointed out a key paradox: Steering Committee members who decide on these extensions can themselves receive waivers to remain on that panel. Confident in his record, Thompson believes his continued leadership is well-earned, asserting that the Republican Party remains grounded in merit and opportunity.
Australia rain favorable for early planting… Harvest is either getting under way or will expand in the coming weeks for Australia’s winter wheat, barley, and canola, says World Weather Inc. Rainfall in Victoria, South Australia, and southern fringes of New South Wales during the past week may have slowed or delayed early-season harvesting, the forecaster said. World Weather noted that minor quality declines were possible in the wettest areas of Victoria as well, though production potentials remain favorable since most of that crop is immature. Much of Australia is forecast to see a mix of rain and sunshine during the coming week, including the driest areas of Queensland and New South Wales. World Weather said harvesting should advance swiftly around the rain. Planting of the summer grains, oilseeds, and cotton is also under way in eastern Australia. “Rainfall in coming days will be welcome, though much more precipitation is needed for better long-term production potentials,” Owen wrote.
Trump to talk to Putin over plague-related death… President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he plans to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin following the death of a Siberian laboratory worker from a suspected pneumonic plague infection, CNBC reported. While U.S. health officials monitor the incident closely, the CDC and WHO report no immediate public health threat to the United States.
Farmer sentiment sinks… Farmer sentiment fell in September, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sliding to 123 points from 135 in August as a record percentage of respondents cited high input costs as their top worry and less than half said the U.S. was on the “right track.” High input costs remain the primary financial drag on producers, cited as a top concern by a record 52% of survey respondents and identified by 54% as the main factor limiting improvements to their operation’s financial health. Despite near-term cost pressures, long-term outlooks on farmland values reached a record high of 168. Read: Farmer sentiment drops in September as worries grow over rising input costs
Malaysian palm oil futures decline… Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses to over below MYR 4,550 per ton as weaker Chicago soyoil futures undercut sentiment, according to TradingEconomics. Caution also prevailed ahead of Malaysian Palm Oil Board monthly data, with stocks expected to peak this month, the report noted. Sluggish demand added pressure, with cargo surveyors estimating a 17.1%-28.8% month-on-month drop in palm oil exports in September. European Union palm oil imports for the 2026/27 season, which began in July, also fell 18% year-on-year to 0.71 million tonnes, the report said.
Feeders log 2 ½-month high… December live cattle rose $4.125 to close at $224.10 Tuesday, hitting a three-week high. November feeder cattle gained $8.15 to $338.275, logging the highest finish in over two months. The cattle markets saw solid technical buying Tuesday amid near-term price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. Boxed beef prices so far this week have posted solid gains, while cash cattle trade has been slow to develop.
Hogs take a breather… December lean hog futures fell $0.575 Tuesday to $70.375, pulling back after hitting a two-week high the previous session. The bulls still have some momentum to hint that a potential market bottom may be in place, but need to show fresh legs soon. Cash hog market prices continue to trend down. The latest CME lean hog index declined $0.57 to $79.63. Wednesday’s projected CME index price is down $0.41 at $79.22. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Tuesday was $75.75.