Farmer sentiment fell in September, with the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer sliding to 123 points from 135 in August as a record percentage of respondents cited high input costs as their top worry and less than half said the U.S. was on the “right track.”
The drop in the barometer reading reflected falls in a pair of sub-indexes, noted Purdue agricultural economists Michael Langemeier and Joana Colussi on Tuesday. The survey’s current conditions gauge dropped 18 points, while its future expectations gauge was down 9 points. Also, a lower proportion of producers (22%) said they expect their operation to be better off financially than worse off (35%) a year from now. The September barometer survey was conducted among 400 farmers across the country from Sept. 14 to 18.
High input costs continue to weigh on sentiment. The survey found 54% see high input costs as the main factor limiting improvement in their farm’s financial situation, while a record 52% cited high input costs as their top concern.
In keeping with the gloomier outlook, the survey’s Farm Financial Performance Index decreased from 103 in August to 90 in September, reflecting greater pessimism among respondents about their financial prospects over the next 12 months. The Farm Capital Investment Index also dropped 6 points to 39.
Expectations around farmland values, however, have remained upbeat, particularly regarding the long term. The survey’s Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell one point in September to 126, while the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index hit a new high of 168. Alternative investments, inflation, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values, Langemeier and Colussi said.
Meanwhile, just 48% of producers said they think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction,” the lowest reading since respondents were first asked whether the country was on the “wrong track” or “right direction” in July 2025. After averaging 71% during the last six months of 2025 and 62% in the first six months of 2026, the percentage of producers who said the U.S. was headed in the “right direction” ranged between 51% and 54% in July and August, before dropping below 50% last month, the economists noted.
In other highlights, the survey found:
- About 22% of corn and soybean producers surveyed expected cash rents to increase in 2027. Among those expecting an increase, 47% are expecting cash rents to increase by up to 0 to 5%. A large majority of respondents (73%) expected cash rents to remain about the same next year.
- Approximately 46% of corn and soybean producers currently plant cover crops, with another 22% having planted cover crops in the past. Around a third of the respondents have planted cover crops for more than 10 years, and 15% plant cover crops on a majority of their acreage. Approximately 37% of corn and soybean producers expect soybean exports to increase in the next five years, compared with only 10% who think soybean exports will decline.
- Only 19.9% of respondents indicated that they were not concerned about the competitiveness of U.S. soybean production when making comparisons with Brazil.