Good morning!
Grain futures mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 2 1/4 cents after closing at a 10-month high close Thursday. May soybeans were 3 1/4 cents higher as a bearish pennant pattern has now formed on the daily bar chart. May soybean meal was down $1.00 on a mild correction after hitting a 3.5-month high Thursday. May bean oil was 95 points higher. May SRW wheat was down 4 cents and May HRW wheat was 5 cents lower. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up, with Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $96.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.3 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Iran continues Gulf strikes after Israel vows to spare energy sites after Trump rebuke
--Crude oil and gas prices declined as the U.S. and Israel sought to reassure investors
--Global stocks are set for a third weekly loss, with no end in sight to the war
--EU bracing for a potentially years-long energy squeeze following strike in Qatar
--Kuwait to partially shut its Al Ahmadi refinery
--The UAE and Saudi Arabia said they intercepted missiles overnight
--Asian countries turn to coal for energy as Iran war rapidly shrinks supplies of gas
--Oil market’s seaborne tanker buffer runs down fast as Iran war drags on
Heat wave in the West expanding eastward… The National Weather Service today said warm and dry weather is in store for much of the nation today and into the weekend. The record-breaking heat wave in the West will continue, while expanding across the central U.S. as well. Temperatures are forecast to be 25-35 degrees above average for this time of year and numerous daily and monthly temperature records are expected to be broken. Highs temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s and 100s across the Southwest, 80s across the intermountain West, and range from the 70s to the 90s across the Great Plains. Overnight low temperatures will also be well above average, providing little relief from the heat. Crops and livestock in the Plains states will be stressed the next few days. In addition to well-above-average heat, portions of the northern and central High Plains will also be dealing with elevated to critical fire weather conditions today and Saturday. Precipitation chances will be limited across the nation through the weekend.
U.S. soybean shipments to China up significantly in February… “A wave of U.S. soybeans reached Chinese shores this year as a deal between the two nations revived the trade. But the delay of President Trump’s visit to Beijing is clouding prospects over how long the influx will last,” Bloomberg said today. China brought in 1.45 million tons of U.S. soybeans in February, the most since June, according to data from China customs. That added to 38,002 tons that arrived in January. “They mark the first arrivals of a flurry of cargoes booked by state buyers after Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping struck a trade truce in late October. Still, after meeting an initial 12-million-ton pledge, China’s purchases have recently stalled. Traders expected fresh buying could materialize near a Trump and Xi summit that was slated for late March, but the U.S. president is now focused on U.S. military operations in Iran and said this week that the meeting has been postponed to mid-May,” said the report. China’s U.S. soybean imports also remain much lower than those from top supplier Brazil. That country’s market share has grown amid Beijing’s years-long push to diversify purchases and cut dependence on the U.S. Brazilian imports totaled 6.56 million tons in the first two months of 2026, more than 80% higher than a year earlier, according to the data, said Bloomberg.
Bipartisan group of U.S. senators acts on high fertilizer prices… A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators introduced a bill that would require mandatory price reporting of fertilizer — a bid for more market information after the war in Iran prompted the biggest surge in crop nutrient costs in years, said a Bloomberg report. “At a time when rising fertilizer costs and low commodity prices are continuing to erode farmers’ profitability, we should be increasing price transparency for farmers in the current market and increasing domestic fertilizer production and storage here at home,” Senator Amy Klobuchar, Democrat from Minnesota, said in a statement. “Farmers across the world are scrambling to secure enough fertilizer ahead of the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. Politicians and trade groups are looking for ways to help growers, who have been struggling for years against relatively low crop prices and high costs for equipment, seeds and fertilizer,” said the report. The Fertilizer Transparency Act would offer market participants of all sizes with comparable levels of market information on fertilizer components. The bill is also sponsored by Senators including Republicans John Thune of South Dakota and Roger Marshall of Kansas. Because fertilizer is produced primarily outside the U.S., pricing can be seen as opaque, according to some critics of the sector, said Bloomberg.
U.S. Treasury yields up-tick amid inflation concerns… U.S. Treasury yields continued their advance higher today as markets reacted to hawkish comments from central banks and elevated crude oil prices. Two-year yields climbed four basis points to 3.83%, while the 5-year yield gained three points to 3.91%, as market participants dialed back expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year because of the spike in oil prices that is further stoking fears of problematic inflation. Prior to the start of the Iran war, swaps traders were pricing in 61 basis points of Fed easing; now they expect just three. “The inflation backdrop is growing increasingly problematic for the Fed and rate cuts are not likely anytime soon,” James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note and as reported by Bloomberg. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England all held their interest rates steady this week as they grapple with an uncertain outlook because of the conflict in the Middle East. Central bank officials are signaling to markets that they are ready to act soon if necessary to contain inflationary pressures.
Gold sees worst week in six years… Gold prices are headed for their biggest weekly loss in six years due to war in the Middle East boosting energy and reducing expectations for central bank interest rate cuts. The precious metal has dropped every week since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran last month, with bullion trading near $4,675 an ounce, down about 7% this week. Despite the recent pullback, gold remains about 8% higher this year, with some analysts suggesting a temporary drop in prices may boost central bank buying once more.
China stocking up on silver… “China’s ravenous appetite for silver lifted overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the start of 2026, as importers fed a surge in industrial and investment demand,” said Bloomberg in a report. The world’s biggest buyer pulled in over 790 tons in the first two months, including nearly 470 tons in February, the highest ever for that month, according to Chinese customs data on Friday. Strong demand has pushed local prices well above international benchmarks, whittling down already-low exchange stockpiles and hoovering up metal from abroad. Silver prices have never had such a volatile start to a year, soaring about 70% on a wave of speculative buying from China and elsewhere, before abruptly giving up their gains at the end of January. The strong import figures suggest physical consumption in China has been sustained despite shifts in trading flows.
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Malaysian palm oil futures market closed today for a public holiday.
Cattle futures see downside corrections… April live cattle on Thursday fell $2.125 to $233.275. March feeder cattle lost $3.45 to $355.275. The cattle futures markets saw downside price corrections following recent gains. Some profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured, too. Risk appetite in the general marketplace is not that great at present, which is somewhat squelching the cattle market bulls. No cash cattle trading had been reported by USDA as of midday Thursday. The agency on Monday reported lower cash cattle trading last week, with the average price of $234.83—down $5.11 from the week prior. In the Plains states, high temperatures will reach the lower 100s in some places in the southwest today and Saturday. The heat will notably stress livestock, especially after the rapid change from early-week unusually cold weather. Traders are awaiting this afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report.
Lean hog futures see more technical selling pressure… April lean hog futures on Thursday fell $1.70 to $92.05, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. Hog futures saw technical selling pressure resurface amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Price pressure in the cattle futures markets also spilled over into the lean hog futures market. The latest CME lean hog index is up 7 cents at $91.93. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 11 cents at $92.04. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $69.10.